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Sweet Sixteen Predictions

Sweet Sixteen Predictions

With the Sweet 16 just a couple of days away, here's my attempt to offer some Sweet 16 predictions on which teams are the best bets:

Thursday

Connecticut (-7) vs. Purdue - Strong defense tends to thrive in the tournament, and both of these teams have top-rate defenses - in the Top 5 by defensive efficiency. The difference here is going to be the pace of play. UConn plays a far more up-tempo style that capitalizes on their size advantage over virtually everyone they play. Purdue will need to slow things down and set the tone if they want to have a chance. As much as I like the Big Ten, I don't think the Boilermakers can pull it off. It's a near-certainty that the Huskies will have a significant rebounding edge. Purdue has struggled against fast, hot guards this year, and UConn's backcourt is on fire right now. I expect this one to be tough and fun, but I think in the end Purdue just won't have enough to measure up.

Pitt (-7) vs. Xavier - The Musketeers beat Wisconsin in the second round largely by lulling the Badgers to sleep in the second half. Xavier is very solid defensively, and they set the tempo as well as any team in the country. They can also score pretty well, though not as well as the Panthers. Pitt is bigger and stronger, and they use that size to assert themselves offensively with ruthless efficiency. That means that this game will be a battle of wills. I probably favor the Panthers, but Xavier is playing very well, they have the experience of being in this round just last year, and they have nothing to lose. My hunch is that this line gives the Panthers too much credit.

Memphis (-4.5) vs. Missouri - Perhaps more than any other game, this one comes down to one player - Memphis freshman point guard Tyreke Evans. Memphis has a lethal combination - a relentless, ball moving offense, and the most efficient defense in the country. They haven't lost since Evans moved to the point, but he has only been okay so far during the tournament. If he returns to his impressive late-season form then the Tigers should be able to roll here much like they did against Maryland. Even if he doesn't, Missouri has perhaps the smallest margin of error of any remaining team - they need to play as close to flawless as they can or they will be vulnerable against a better team. I expect the Tigers to roar.

Duke (-2.5) vs. Villanova - Maybe I am drawn to Villanova just because I dislike Duke so very much. Or maybe I just like the matchup for the Wildcats. Duke is as much of a one-dimensional perimeter team as there is. If teams can contain and control that then the Blue Devils are likely in trouble. Villanova can probably do that. Their guards use speed and pressure to disrupt opponents and take away shots. That speed will also let them exploit Duke on the break like Texas did in the last round. Duke also doesn't have an answer for Villanova's big man, Dante Cunningham. Villanova has the advantages and the momentum, and I give them a solid edge.

Friday

Louisville (-9) vs. Arizona - I'll keep this one brief - Louisville was my pick to win it all before the tournament, and they still are. That being said, I'm not convinced that this line makes sense. The Wildcats have a trio of talented players, an explosive offense, a defense that is playing well of late, and momentum. Louisville is the better team and should win, but it could very easily be by less than nine points.

Oklahoma (-1) vs. Syracuse - Oklahoma beat Michigan by 10 points, but the game was closer than the score. Michigan was penalized by the refs far more than the Sooners, had absolutely no answer for Blake Griffin, and went long stretches displaying ridiculous offensive futility, and still were in it until late in the second half. Syracuse has more size, more speed, better shooting, and much more momentum than Michigan. I see them getting through this one and keeping their hot streak alive.

Michigan State (-1.5) vs. Kansas - I have a hard time respecting Kansas right now. They deserve credit for getting where they are considering what they lost. Still, it's hard to argue that they aren't overachieving. They benefited from a relatively weak conference to get their seeding, and don't have the experience or seasoning to go further in my eyes. That's not the same for Michigan State. They are deep, tough, seasoned, and focused on playing in the Final Four at home. The Kansas repeat bid ends here.

North Carolina (-8.5) vs. Gonzaga - Every time I look at this one I change my mind. Since before the tournament started I have had a feeling that UNC is vulnerable and poised to fall. That hasn't changed. Sometimes I think that Gonzaga is the team to end the Tar Heels' run. When they play their best they certainly could. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs also have the ability to disappoint and underwhelm when the pressure is on. To pick Gonzaga to win, or even to cover, you have to take a leap of faith that they can perform at their best. Given the number of points they are given, I'm willing to bet that they will. UNC is vulnerable in two key ways - they don't play great defense when pressed to do so, and they get frustrated when teams are able to get back defensively and limit the effectiveness of the North Carolina fast break. Gonzaga is offensively potent and defensively sound, and they have the potential to manage both feats.

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NCAA Tournament Betting: Updated Odds to Win Regionals

NCAA Tournament Betting: Updated Odds to Win Regionals

Did you know that there are pockets in the city of Detroit in which the average home price is just $22,000? No, I'm not missing a digit there: according to CNN the average price of a house in the Motor City is slightly less than a 2009 PT Cruiser.

So, if you had dropped $500 on a futures bet on the Arizona Wildcats to win the Midwest Region - the opening odds on the 'Cats were 60-to-1 - do you think you would cruise on into the Cass Corridor and pick up a four-bedroom, two-bath crib with your winnings?
The Future is now for the 16 sweet college hoops teams that are still playing in the NCAA men's basketball tournament. Before the Big Dance tipped off last Thursday there were futures wagers available for each of the four regional sites. These short-term futures are one of the best values in futures betting, in any sport, and before this weekend's action shapes the Final Four teams you can still get a little cheddar down on who you think will survive weekend No. 2.
However, with the current odds you probably can only secure a down payment on a Detroit home (or a PT Cruiser) as opposed to full cash payment. Here are is a breakdown of the four regions of the NCAA Tournament along with updated regional futures odds:

MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS) REGIONAL

All season long Louisville has shown a disturbing penchant for mailing it in during the first half of games. They were up just two points over feeble Morehead State in Round 1 and just seven points over Siena in Round 2. But those lackluster halves haven't been enough to deter oddsmakers from lowing the payout on the Cardinals to win the Midwest Region. They opened the tournament at 6-to-5 favorites but now are paying significantly less at 1-to-2.
The No. 2 seed, Michigan State, and the No. 3 seed, Kansas, are actually equals in the odds of the futures oddsmakers. Both are currently listed at 2.5-to-1 and that could be telling in terms of which team the books are expecting to advance from their upcoming Friday tussle. Michigan State romped in the first meeting, but that was back in December in the Izzone.
Arizona experienced the second-highest spike in their odds over the weekend. They began the season as 60-to-1 underdogs to come out of the Midwest but are currently just an 8-to-1 bet to win a pair this weekend. They looked sharp and focused in the opening two rounds and will have just four days to prep for Louisville's pressure.

EAST (BOSTON) REGIONAL

Pittsburgh really struggled through its weekend, going 0-2 against the spread and barely holding off plucky No. 16 seed East Tennessee State in their opening game. It wasn't exactly a confidence builder for all of those folks holding futures for Pitt to cut down the nets in Detroit. In fact, their odds have held firm at 3-to-5 to win the East Regional. I said at the start of the tournament that I didn't think the Panthers were a championship team and I'm holding true to that sentiment. But whether they can get out of Boston is another story.
Duke's odds improved only slightly, moving from 2-to-1 to 17-to-10. Naturally, the Blue Devils are still overrated. They always are. But in this instance I think the odds of them beating Big East teams in back-to-back games are, um, a lot longer than 17-to-10. Villanova is still the East Regional sleeper at 3-to-1 and, in my opinion, offers a great value. Xavier was the weekend's biggest mover, dropping from 75-to-1 odds to come out of the East to a tidy 7-to-1 wager.

SOUTH (MEMPHIS) REGIONAL

In my opinion this is the most interesting regional in terms of reading the futures odds. First, North Carolina looked great over the weekend and Ty Lawson returned to bolster their title chances. However, their odds, 2-to-5, to win the region actually held firm. I would have expected Lawson's return to vault this team into the "unplayable favorite" range, but that doesn't appear to be the case.
Next, Oklahoma began the tournament as the only No. 2 seed with odds to win their regional at higher than 2.5-to-1. They were a very soft 6-to-1 to come out of Memphis, but now have seen that number shrink to 3.5-to-1. But that shift in the numbers tells me that the oddsmakers still aren't overly impressed with the Sooners and how they performed over the weekend.
Syracuse had perhaps the best weekend of any team in the field, dominating both of their opponents from start to finish. Interestingly enough, they find themselves in a similar situation to the Midwest Regional in that the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds have the same odds (3.5-to-1) to come out of their bracket. Yet SU and OU's odds are lower than the Michigan State-Kansas numbers.
Finally, Gonzaga got the obligatory bump from not getting bounced in the first round. This perpetually overrated club went from an 8-to-1 sucker bet to a 5-to-1 sucker bet.

WEST (GLENDALE) REGIONAL

Things were not really wild at all out west last weekend and as a result the odds in Glendale have more quivered than actually shifted. Purdue did drop from 12-to-1 to 5-to-1, which is significant, but not earth shattering. Beyond that, Connecticut barely shifted from 5.5-to-5 to 5-to-6 and Memphis tilted from 7-to-5 to 6.5-to-5. The fourth team, Missouri, might be the best value on the board at 5-to-1.
I would not be stunned to see Connecticut, Missouri or Purdue in the Motor City so that makes a futures wager in this region a high-risk, low-reward option.

SpreadConsultants

Understanding Sports Odds

Understanding Sports Odds

Here's the most simplistic but true statement I can possibly make about sports betting - understanding sports odds is a pretty important part of sports betting. You can be the best handicapper in the world, and you can pick winners with shocking regularity, but if you don't understand odds then you can't know if a bet is worth making, and you probably won't be a winner in the end. Fortunately, understanding sports odds isn't that tough once you figure it all out.

Before we look at the details of things there is one thing to keep in mind - your job as a sports bettor is to determine what you think the likelihood of something happening is and then to compare it to the odds of that event occurring. If the posted odds are better than your anticipated likelihood then you have a bet worth making, but if the odds, or the potential return on the bet, is less than the chances you give the bet of being successful then it is not worthwhile. Novice or unsuccessful bettors think that sports betting is all about picking winners, but that is only a small part of success.

There are a number of different ways that odds can be presented, but they all come down to the same thing. Sports books assign what they think is a fair price for a particular outcome. By fair price I mean that the books try to set a price that is attractive to bettors so that they will bet on it, but not so attractive that they will get too many bets and risk losing money. Books will adjust the odds once they have been set if they are attracting too much or too little action.
Sports odds can be presented in a number of different ways, but they all represent the same thing in one way or another - the amount you will win if you make a bet and are correct. They express them in different ways, but that's the meaning.

Fractional odds - These aren't the most common in sports betting, but they are the easiest to understand so we will start here. They are used in horse racing, so if you are familiar with betting on the ponies then you know fractional odds. Not surprisingly, they are expressed as a fraction. For example, odds of 4/1 mean that you would win four dollars if you bet one dollar and were correct. The odds can be less than even, too. Odds of 1/4 would mean that you would have to bet four dollars to win one dollar. With fractional odds it is also quite simple to figure out if a bet makes sense. If the odds are 4/1 and you think that something is likely to happen once in three tries then it is a very profitable bet. On the other hand, if it were likely to happen once every five tries then you would lose money in the long term if you bet it at 4/1.

Decimal odds - These aren't used in the United States very often, but they are seen in Canada, Europe and Australia. They can also be the most confusing at first. The easiest way to understand them is to start with fractional odds. To make a conversion you take the fraction, turn it into a decimal, and add one. That means that 4/1 fractional odds would convert to decimal odds of five, and 1/4 odds would become 1.25.

Money line odds - These are by far the most common form of odds in North America for sports betting. They are expressed as numbers greater than 100, and they can be either a positive or negative number. Each one is a little bit different.
When a money line is a positive number then the odds are the amount you would win if you were to bet $100 and were correct. For example, a money line of +200 would mean that you would make a profit of $200 if you bet $100 and were correct. That's also equivalent to fractional odds of 2/1 and decimal odds of 3.

A negative money line represents the amount that you would have to bet to win $100 if you were correct. For example, a -200 money line means you would win $100 if you bet $200 and won. It is also equivalent to fractional odds of 1/2 and decimal odds of 1.5.

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Food City 500 Odds and Predictions

Food City 500 Odds and Predictions

After one week off after his win at Atlanta Kurt Busch (and the "Blue Deuce") looks to continue his Sprint Cup domination as NASCAR heads to Thunder Valley, Busch's favorite track, this Sunday for the first of two races at Bristol Motor Speedway at 2 p.m. EST.

Bristol is racing's equivalent of the 12th man as the track itself is as much a story as the cars racing on it. BMS features two pit roads, which makes every pit stop an adventure for fans, drivers and pit crews. Qualifying is everything at Bristol so keep that in mind when investing on Sunday's race. This should give you a great indication who will likely race well and who will not.

BMS boasts 15-second laps and 30-degree banked turns. When the 0.5333-mile track was resurfaced in summer of 2007 they also added three extra feet so there are two grooves rather than one. However, now fans can experience more side-to-side racing rather than the colossal multi-car wipeouts that everyone loves at Bristol. At last year's Food City 500 42 of 43 cars finished on the lead lap.

How drivers fare at the Food City 500 is very important because the Top-35 teams in owners' points after the first five races of the season are guaranteed starting spots in the rest of the races for the season. If a driver is out of the Top 35 they'll need to get into each race on speed -- a shaky position for Mark Martin, who is currently on the bubble at No. 35. I look for drivers like Ryan Newman (32nd), Joey Logano (33rd) Scott Speed (37th) and Martin to really push is this Sunday to make sure they are in the Top 35 by the end of Sunday's race.

Who will win the Food City 500?

This is the first short-track race of the season and Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch go into this race with a decided advantage. Not only are they first and third, respectively, in the Sprint Cup points standings, they are also both tied with five wins each at BMS.

Kurt Busch won five spring races at Bristol in '02, '03, '04 and two August races in '03 and '04. Gordon has won spring races at Bristol in '95, '96, '97 and '98 while winning one August race in '02. But since the resurfacing neither of these two drivers has won.

"Concrete" Carl Edwards has dominated Bristol ever since the half-mile track was resurfaced. This Sunday Edwards will drive the car he used, and won, at Bristol last August. In his car "RK-596" Edwards started from the pole and ended up winning the race after leading for 84 laps.

If there is a downside for Edwards is that he is better racing at night than during the day at Bristol. Despite winning two of the last three races at Bristol he has never won the day race in spring. Last year Edwards finished 16th in this race, however, and I think this Sunday we will see the first back flip of the season.

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (6/1)

2009 Food City 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

How dominant has Kurt Busch been this season? Busch won his first race of the season at Atlanta two weeks ago and looks to continue the trend in "PRS-594" which he named "Hot Rod" after the win at AMS. "Hot Rod" debuted with a fifth-place finish at California and after winning two weeks ago the car's average finish is second. The No. 2 car has finished in the Top 10 five out of six races run this year. In his last three races Busch has started no worse than fourth on the grid and has put Penske Championship Racing back on the map. Busch is in third place in the standings, 46-points behind leader Jeff Gordon, but is in great position to use Bristol to take over the points lead with another strong short track finish. While Busch might not win this week it is a good bet that he finishes in the Top 3.

Pick! Kurt Busch, No. 2, (2/1)

2009 Food City 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

I actually don't like any of the long odds drivers on Sunday. I am looking to back a driver that will race competitively and perhaps take the lead for a few laps. I don't want my long-odds driver to flame out in the first 50 laps. I'm looking for some longevity as well as return for my investment. BMS is where Elliot Sadler won his first Sprint Cup race in 2001. If there was ever a track built to suit the No. 19 Best Buy Dodge it's Bristol. Although Sadler's finishes have not been great since the resurface (27th in '07 and 19th in '08), he started third on the grid in 2007 and finished second in 2005. Earlier this year at Daytona Sadler led for 24 laps, which eclipsed his 21-lap lead for the entire 2008 season. If Sadler can qualify well at Bristol don't count him out.

Pick! Elliot Sadler, No. 19, (30/1)

Odds to finish in the Top 3 - Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway March 22, 2009

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brian Vickers 9/1
Carl Edwards 9/5
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 5/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9/2
David Ragan 9/1
David Reutimann 30/1
David Stremme 22/1
Denny Hamlin 3/1
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 9/2
Jamie McMurray 9/1
Jeff Burton 5/1
Jeff Gordon 3/2
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Joey Logano 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 30/1
Kasey Kahne 5/1
Kevin Harvick 7/2
Kurt Busch 2/1
Kyle Busch 3/2
Mark Martin 15/2
Martin Truex Jr. 30/1
Matt Kenseth 7/2
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Ryan Newman 18/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed30/1
Tony Stewart 5/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1

Odds to win the Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway March 22, 2009

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 30/1
Carl Edwards 6/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann100/1
David Stremme 75/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 15/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Jeff Burton 18/1
Jeff Gordon 6/1
Jimmie Johnson 15/1
Joey Logano 75/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 60/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Kurt Busch 7/1
Kyle Busch 11/2
Mark Martin 25/1
Martin Truex Jr. 100/1
Matt Kenseth 14/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Tony Stewart 18/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1

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Sports betting tips

Sports betting tip #1 - Money Management

This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting sports and possibly the most neglected. The first key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose. If you are going to bet on sports, it is important to set aside a certain portion of your money for betting and to stick with that bankroll, win or lose. Winning money on sports is not a sprint. If you bet your whole bankroll on one game and lose, you will be more likely to try and chase your losses. If you spread your bankroll among several smaller bets, you are more likely to make a profit in the long run if you do the proper homework. Remember, there are no locks in this business and any team can lose on any given night. And on the subject of chasing: Don't do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day. If you didn't like the game before you lost your money, why would you like it after your losses? Chasing bets is a losing proposition almost every time. If you are on a winning streak, increase the amount of your bets. Wins and losses often come in streaks, and it can be profitable to ride out a hot streak.

Sports betting tip #2 - Shopping for Numbers
The second most important aspect of betting on sports is shopping for the best number. There will be more discrepancy in the numbers on different sports at different sports books. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. On college sports and daily events like the NBA, you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines. When you are betting your hard earned money, getting the best line is a top priority. And since the lines the bookmakers release are increasingly strong, the difference between a point or two is usually the difference between a win or a loss.

Sports betting tip #3 - Never Gamble While under the Influence
There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling. Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn't otherwise make. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind. If you have had too much to drink, it is in your best interest to stay away from the betting window.

There are many other important factors when it comes to beating the books. Many people don't have the time to study things like: statistics, line moves, game analysis, team trends, situational trends, Historical angles, valuable lines, inflated numbers on public teams, etc. If this is your situation, there is help available to you. There are many fine sports handicapping services available. Like a good stockbroker handicapping services can advise you where to invest your money in order to limit your losses and increase your winning percentage.

As with any industry there are the good and the bad. We must confess that our industry has gotten somewhat of a black eye. The handicapping business has been flooded with 1-900-rip-offs, "boiler room" sales offices and those recorded free pick phones that get your phone number so that one of their high pressure salesman can call back and hound you on a daily basis. These services are often skilled in marketing but know little when in comes to handicapping. This is not in your best interest.

It's very important that whether you use our service, another service, or handicap on your own that you do your homework and always remember that this is a marathon and not a sprint. The same principle that apply to any business, also applies to sports betting and in our 30+ years of experience we can only guarantee the following four statements: There are no 'Locks,' there are no 'get-rich-quick' schemes, any game can lose in almost unimaginable ways, and unfortunately you will have your losing days.

We hope these sports betting tips will help out but most importantly be patient, have some fun and enjoy the experience. Best of Luck - SpreadConsultants

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Potential NCAA Tournament Upsets

Potential NCAA Tournament Upsets

The best part of the early rounds of the NCAA are the upsets, and the best part of filling out your bracket is deciding which games you think are potential heartbreakers for the higher seeded teams. Here are eight potential upsets that wouldn't shock me this year:

Midwest

No. 12 Arizona over No. 5 Utah - The Wildcats are a controversial inclusion in the tournament, but they are better than their record indicates. They have a very talented trio in Wise, Hill and Budinger, and they are explosive offensively. Utah is a solid team, but they have fallen into slumps from time to time. Utah might be slightly too high at No. 5, and Arizona is more talented than a lot of 12 seeds.

No. 10 USC over No. 7 Boston College - The Eagles can be a tough team - they beat UNC, Duke and Florida State this year. Unfortunately, they are wildly inconsistent - they lost to Harvard, and they dropped five of their last nine. USC knows all about underachieving, too, but they got hot at the right time and won their conference tournament to get an unlikely tournament bid. If they revert to their regular season form then they will lose here. If they keep playing like they did in their tourney, though, then this might not be the only game they win.

West

No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 Marquette - The Golden Eagles had a great start to the season, but they had the bad misfortune of losing the very valuable Dominic James. Without him the team has struggled badly down the stretch and are certainly vulnerable. The Aggies are a hard team to judge - they won 30 games and the WAC title, but they really haven't played many teams of note. If they are half as good as their record then they could pull the upset.

No. 10 Maryland over No. 7 Cal - I frankly don't even think that this one would be much of an upset. The Pac-10 didn't have a great year, so Cal isn't particularly battle-tested, and they lost four of their last six. Maryland had struggles of their own at times, but they also beat some very good teams - Michigan State, UNC and so on. They have a good chance of thriving under the pressure here.

East

No. 12 Wisconsin over No. 5 Florida State - This seed matchup always seems to be the site of the big upsets, and this could be yet another. The Badgers didn't get nearly enough respect from the selection committee - they were fifth in the Big Ten, yet they were seeded two spots below two teams behind them in the standings. Wisconsin didn't live up to expectations, but they still play smothering defense and can be dangerous. Florida State is coming off a huge conference tournament run, but they may struggle with focus and maintaining their momentum.

No. 13 Portland State over No. 4 Xavier - The Vikings are the Big Sky champions, and they could be dangerous. They haven't played a lot of top competition, but they do have an impressive win at Gonzaga to their credit. Xavier is a team I like a lot, but they can be frustrating. They have a bad habit of overlooking teams that they should be able to beat with ease - three of their six losses came against decidedly inferior opponents. They rely heavily on a freshman point guard, and he might have slight problems with the intensity of this tournament. That could be enough for Portland State.

South

No. 11 Temple over No. 6 Arizona State - The Sun Devils have one of the most impressive players out there in James Harden. He deserves more credit and attention than he gets, and a big tournament performance could help him get that. They will have to be at their best to get past Temple, though. The Owls won a deep and tough A-10 conference tournament, and they had a couple of solid non-conference wins. They are a feisty team that won't be afraid to stand up to the Sun Devils.

No. 10 Michigan over No. 7 Clemson - Michigan is a frustrating team to be a fan of. When they play their game they are as good as any squad out there - ask Duke or UCLA. If they don't play with focus and determination, though, then they can be incredibly lousy. They have been able to lift their game up when it matters, though, and they could do it again here. Their 1-3-1 defense can also give opponents fits if it is working well. Clemson had a great non-conference run, but they didn't play too many teams of note. In conference play they had a win over Duke but they lost to the rest of their top opponents. They are not a bad team, but they are a vulnerable one.

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NCAA Tournament Fact vs. Myth

NCAA Tournament Fact vs. Myth

The March Madness is in full swing. The following will examine a couple of key questions many of you have about the upcoming tournament and we are confident this discussion will also help you fill out your bracket and be the king of your office pool.

Fact vs. Myth

Fact vs. Myth No. 1: Oklahoma has the best player in Blake Griffin and thus they are a threat to win it all?

Answer: Myth. Despite having the best player in Blake Griffin, the Sooners have a hurdle that they will not be able to overcome, Jeff Capel cannot coach. Everything Blake Griffin gets is on his own and not because of some great offensive attack devised by Capel. In fact, the Coach K "family tree" has not been successful as evidenced below:

Tommy Amaker (Seton Hall, Michigan, Harvard)
Bob Bender (Washington)
Mike Brey (Notre Dame)
Neil Dougherty (Texas Christian)
Quin Snyder (Missouri, NBDL Austin Toros)
Jeff Capel III (Virginia Commonwealth, Oklahoma)
David Henderson (Delaware)
Johnny Dawkins (Stanford University) />

This certainly does not line-up with the Coach Rick Pitino tree. The Sooners have a nice draw but I don't expect them to make it to the Elite Eight, despite being a No. 2 seed.

Fact vs. Myth No. 2: The Big Ten set basketball back 20 years this season and all of the teams will be knocked out this weekend?

Answer: Myth. Granted the Big Ten was hard to watch in 2009 and the first team to reach 50 points won the majority of games, but familiarity played a major role in this. Every coach in the conference has a veteran this season and opposing teams are very familiar with each coach's style of play. The same cannot be said for teams outside the Midwest and expect the scoring of Big Ten teams to increase and this may set up some great totals plays on the over. I expect Purdue and Michigan State to make it to the second weekend and four of the seven Big Ten teams will win their first round games. The officiating and unfamiliarity will help all of these squads. Watch out for Purdue, as this team has the best talent and is starting to get healthy.

Fact vs. Myth No. 3: Location is important when filling out your bracket?

Answer: Fact. You have noticed that there have not been as many upsets in recent years and the chalk has prevailed through the first weekend. Last year, the Top 8 seeds made it through the first weekend and it would not surprise me if that trend happened again this year. I do not see many strong teams in the 7-10 games that would have a chance to knockout a No. 2 seed in round two. Teams benefiting from location this season are Villanova, Louisville, North Carolina, and Duke. Expect all of these teams to advance to the second week of the tournament.

Fact vs. Myth No. 5: Teams need stars in order to advance deep into the tournament.

Answer: Fact. The tournament is a different breed and oftentimes games get into half-court battles and, in order to score points, you need players that can create their own shots. Does Stephen Curry ring a bell from 2008? Teams that come to mind this season are North Carolina, Florida State, Arizona State and Pittsburgh. Teams that don't have a star are Wisconsin, Illinois, West Virginia, and Texas A&M.

Fact vs. Myth No. 6: The tournament should be expanded to eliminate the bubble teams.

Answer: Myth. Regardless of how many teams you put in, there will always be some team that feels they got jobbed. Do we really need all 16 teams from the Big East in the NCAA Tournament? Does DePaul deserve to be in after going 0-16 in the Big East? The tournament is fine the way it is now and I like the fact that each conference gets at least one team into the field. Nobody left out this season (Penn State, Auburn, or St. Mary's) could win six straight games in the tournament. The only thing I would eliminate is the play-in game, (yes that is what it is called) because the loser does not get to experience the real tournament atmosphere. Coaches are in favor of expansion because it may help save their jobs and, much like the bowls, mediocrity can seem a lot better with a victory late in the season.

There you have it, so who do I think will advance to the Motor City: Michigan State, UCONN, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh. Who will cut down the nets: UNC.

2009 NBA MVP Odds and Predictions

2009 NBA MVP Odds and Predictions

Right now there are two hot topics in the NBA: how is the playoff field going to shape up and what are some 2009 NBA MVP odds and who is going to bring home the Podoloff Cup.

(What is The Podoloff Cup, you ask? According to Useful Trivia, "The National Basketball Association established the Podoloff Cup, named for Maurice Podoloff, the league's first commissioner, as the its Most Valuable Player award in 1956. The winner was originally chosen by the NBA players. Since 1981, however, it has been based on a poll of professional basketball broadcasters and writers." Who knew?)

Right now it's tough to find any online sportsbooks that have 2009 NBA MVP odds posted. However, I think if they did post odds for the NBA MVP it would be one of the most highly bet props that they could have on the board. The debate is heated, and definitely calls into question the subjective measure of what an MVP is and what the phrase "Valuable" means.

There isn't really a wrong answer when you're breaking down the 2009 NBA MVP odds. Well, there isn't a wrong answer unless you have money on it. So I propose that all of the media bobbleheads that spend their time bickering about these issues need to put their money where their mouth is and lay some cheddar on which they think will make Podoloff proud.

So, in the spirit of that, here's a breakdown of the five players in the running for the Polodoff Cup as well as some 2009 NBA MVP odds and predictions:

Dwyane Wade:
Stat Line: 30 points, 7.7 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 2.3 steals, 1.4 blocks
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: +800
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: -125

Wade has been absolutely destroying the NBA this season. He, and yes I mean just he, has lead the Heat to a 36-29 record this season. This is amazing considering that the Heat only won 15 games last season. If you have had the pleasure of watching Wade this year you would have had the privilege of watching a man whom people thought was made of glass and on the downside of his career (ALREADY!) manhandle the rest of the league. The way that he controls a game from the opening tip to the final buzzer is unmatched. The Heat finished last season as the worst team in basketball and currently they sit in the fifth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Heat are an extremely tough matchup for almost any team in the league for one sole reason: Dwyane Wade.

Chris Paul
Stat line: 21.8 points, 11 assists, 5.4 rebounds, 2.4 steals
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: +1000
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: +850

With every passing game that Chris Paul plays the Atlanta Hawks feel like they are getting kicked in the balls over and over. Could you imagine having a Big Three of Paul, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith? That would be a fun team to watch. The Hornets are thankful that the Hawks passed and that they have gotten to watch Paul run one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA. If you decided to sit down and watch the NBA All-Star Game you would have witnessed skills that not many other players in the league possess. Paul's court vision and passing ability are in a league of their own. This man is by far the best point guard in the NBA. Over the past two years Paul has led the Hornets to a 78-65 ATS mark, which includes a 50-30 mark last season.

Kobe Bryant
Stat line: 28 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.3 steals
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: +500
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: +600

I think Kobe will finish fourth in the MVP race and at the All Star break he was posted at some online books as even money to win his second straight MVP award. Kobe will suffer from the Michael Jordan syndrome (Being that good every year, so people just look at it as an average season). Bryant's chances to become the MVP suffer due to the fact that the Lakers went to the championship last year and are on a similar path this season. Having an impressive supporting cast doesn't help Kobe either. Man it must suck to be considered one of the best players on the planet every single time he laces up his sneakers. Yeah, I would hate that.

LeBron James
Stat line: 28.6 points, 7.4 rebounds 7.2 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.2 blocks
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: +500
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: -150

Oh King James, King James. The poster child for the NBA is leading his Cavs on a fast track to the NBA Finals and he is earning a bigger paycheck with each passing game. Numerous teams in the NBA are completely re-tooling their rosters in hopes that they can land The King in 2010. In my opinion James is the runner-up for the MVP award this season. The addition of Mo Williams has placed the Cavs on the next level. It's difficult to look at LeBron James' numbers and suggest that he isn't the MVP when he has matched every one of his statistical categories from last year with the exception of scoring (and last year he should have won MVP). But this year there is just someone better. The Cavs have an improved supporting cast and LeBron, similar to Kobe, is just doing his thing. Poor LeBron; two years in a row now he could have won the MVP and might come "just that close." He was listed at -300 at the All Star break and was the runaway favorite to take the hardware.

Kevin Durant
Stat line: 25.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: Off
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: +5000

Nope. Sorry. Durant is an outstanding up-and-coming player as he is currently fourth in the race for the NBA scoring title. But come on; are people serious when they mention his name for MVP? The Oklahoma City Thunder are 18-48 on the year. You can't have an MVP from a team that is that bad. Plus, they haven't been that much worse without Durant while he has been out with an injury. Like I said, he is good, just not MVP good. Yet…

Running a March Madness Pool

Running a March Madness Pool

It's that time of year, where your NCAA Tournament office pool turns everyone that fills out a bracket into a fledgling college basketball expert.

I'm here to give you a "March Madness Pool for Dummies," so to speak. All you need to know about running a March Madness pool - and hopefully succeed in winning it. First off, you will need to print out a bracket for all of your office cohorts to fill out. No doubt, even your boss will want to be part of it - in what other month than March will your boss condone gambling??

OK, send out that e-mail and put copies of those brackets in all of those office mailboxes - getting customers to join your pool is the first crucial step in running a March Madness pool. If you are wondering how much to charge, it really depends on how many people you expect to lure. Most times, it's either $5 or $10, although in this economy, it's really up to you. But make sure you collect the entry fee, if there is one, before the tournament starts, or you will be chasing that money for a month. Some don't charge money and offer a prize. I know of one company that gave its winning employee the day off for winning the office pool. Another sold bracket spots to advertisers and gave each advertiser that got a team into the Final Four a discounted rate. So, really, the prizes are left to your creativity.

That creativity also goes with scoring, although you certainly want to make the point total rise in each round. The standard scoring goes like this (always assigning points to each game winner): one point for Round 1 winners, two for Round 2 winners, four in Round 3 (Sweet 16 winners), six for Elite Eight winners, eight for Final Four winners and 10 for the national champion. Again, this is really up to you, but you want to significantly reward whomever gets the national champ and not just someone who got lucky in picking upsets in the first round or two.
You also won't want to bother with the play-in game, as there's just not enough time to turn around everyone's bracket by that Tuesday game following Selection Sunday.

You will want to e-mail out, or put up in the mailroom, the point totals after every weekend so people know where they stand. And obviously make sure that the contestants keep a copy of their bracket for themselves. You also will want to put out an original e-mail saying what each contestant predicted for the Final Four and national champion. You might be pondering doing all this online as opposed to the old print version, but I guarantee that if you are doing this in a large setting that you will encounter at least a few people who aren't comfortable doing this on the Internet or who will do it wrong and then refuse to pay. I think you will find doing it the old-fashioned way is still pretty fun. But at worst, you could have people fill out the brackets on paper and then input those results into one of those online sites that will tabulate it for you.
As for strategy, I won't pretend to have all the answers despite having won a few pools in my day.

I will say that all four No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four just once since the field expanded to 64 in 1985 - and that was last year. There has been only one season where zero No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four - in 2006.

There almost always is an upset in one 5-12 game. Thirty-one times since 1985 a No. 12 has upset the No. 5 in the first round. But while there are plenty of upsets, it's still best to pick a No. 1 seed as your national champion. Since 1985, No. 1 seeds have won 14 championships.

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World Baseball Classic

Here is a preview of Round 2 of the World Baseball Classic with updated odds to win the tournament.

Pool 1 in San Diego

Korea (winner Pool A) +800, Japan (runner-up Pool A) +190, Cuba (winner Pool B) +350, Mexico (runner-up Pool B) +2000

This group opens with Japan vs. Cuba Sunday in a rematch of the 2006 WBC final that was won by the Japanese, 10-6. The contrast in styles in this group is enormous. Japan and Korea lived up to their 'pitching and defense' reputations as evidenced by their 1-0 final, won by Korea in Pool A of Round 1. However, Cuba and Mexico combined to slug 23 home runs in the opening round of the Mexico City group that was won by Cuba.
Japan at +190 is the co-favorite with the United States to repeat as WBC champions. They'll have to get through a tough group that includes Cuba, a team that has been as impressive as any in the tournament thus far. The Cuban lineup showed big punch with 29 runs in its three wins and the pitching staff held up nicely. Outfielder Frederich Cepeda (.500, three home runs and six RBI), and Yoemis Cespedes (.538, two home runs and three RBI) were among the tournament's offensive stars in the first round.
Mexico is dismissed at +2000 after a mediocre 2-2 opening round. They pounded 12 home runs to top the tournament in the initial round, but were a wildly inconsistent club as a whole. It's also worth noting the big offensive numbers put up by Cuba and Mexico came in Mexico City's mile-high altitude.
The Koreans and Japanese proved to be pitching-rich once again in the first round. It should provide some interesting matchups with the big offensive numbers put up by the Latin American clubs.
Korea went 3-1 to win Pool A and all three victories were by shutout, including a 1-0 win over Japan to clinch the top seed. Pitcher Jung Keun Bong has given up just five hits over 8.1 shutout innings to pace the Koreans. The Beijing Olympic gold medalist continues to exceed expectations in international competition, but Mexico seems more than capable of taking them out in the opener. That makes their 8-1 odds to win the whole thing seem devoid of value.
Mexico scored 30 runs in their two wins and gave up 33 runs in their two losses. That's a large swing that illustrates their inconsistency. Still, they certainly seem to have the ability and +2000 could provide fair value.

Pool 2 in Miami

Puerto Rico (winner Pool D) +700, Netherlands (runner-up Pool D) +5000, Venezuela (winner Pool C) +700, USA (runner-up Pool C) +190

The Netherlands got here with a pair of unthinkable wins over the Dominican Republic. The Cinderella story figures to end here. Aside from Cuba, Puerto Rico may have been the most impressive team of the opening round. They beat the Netherlands twice and blanked Panama, 7-0, to win pool D. Puerto Rico is deep and versatile. The pitching staff allowed just one run over 27 innings while striking out 28 and walking just eight in the first round. Future Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez seemed to have set the tone in the opener, going 4-for-4 with two home runs for Puerto Rico and they look like the value of the tournament at 7-1.
The U.S. beat Canada and split two games with Venezuela to advance to the second round. They will be without manager Davey Johnson, who left the team for personal reasons, for the opener vs. Puerto Rico. The U.S. middle relief has been a disappointment to this point and will need shoring up if the Americans hope to play up to their short price.
Venezuela proved it can score plenty of runs in the first round, banging out eight home runs and a .347 team batting average, but the starting pitching still seems too suspect to offer any support at 7-1.

NHL Betting: The Week's Biggest Stories

NHL Betting: The Week's Biggest Stories

The NHL trade deadline has passed, and it was a strange one. The trade action was very slow to get started, and though there were eventually almost as many deals as in recent years there weren't nearly as many big names with new addresses. Early-round draft picks were also more valued now than some years, as they didn't move much at all. Several teams got better now or into the future, but four did better than the rest.

Trade Deadline Winners

Calgary Flames - The big winners. They are securely leading their division, but they have been hit with key injuries that have significantly affected their scoring depth - Daymond Langkow, Rene Bourque, and Todd Bertuzzi. They also lacked defensive depth. They were able to address both, and give up nothing particularly meaningful in immediate terms in exchange. The big jewel was Olli Jokinen from Phoenix. The Flames have coveted the European forward for years, and the team has never really had a true offensive center to pair with Jarome Iginla. Jokinen paired with Iginla and Mike Cammaleri, who is having a very good offensive year, and the chemistry was immediate - Jokinen had two goals in his first period. To shore up the defense, they re-acquired Jordan Leopold. Leopold started his career in Calgary, so he will be comfortable in his new surroundings. He's a puck-moving defenseman who can be trusted in his own zone. When he was previously in town he had excellent chemistry with Roby Regehr, and that should be rekindled. These two moves make the team much better, and came at the cost of just one regular contributor - the speedy but inconsistent Matthew Lombardi.

Despite the improvements, Calgary still has a glaring need that they are helpless to fix. Goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff is very good, and it's a good thing - he has every single win for the team. The team seems to take a day off when Kipper is given a break. That won't be a factor in the playoffs unless the Finn gets injured. If that happens then the team's goose is cooked.

Boston Bruins - The Bruins are the class of the East, so they didn't need to do anything major. What they did do, though, just makes them deeper and more competitive. Forward Mark Recchi is in his twilight, but he has been around forever, and he adds a seasoned and respected veteran voice to a relatively young dressing room. Steve Montador isn't a big name, but he's a determined, capable defenseman who doesn't make a lot of mistakes and can be trusted in pressure situations. Both players are good additions.

New York Rangers - The Rangers desperately need to stop the freefall - they started out strong, but now just cling to a playoff spot by one point. The big story of the trade deadline for them was what they were unable to do - shed a big contract that weighs them down like an anchor - like the contracts of Scott Gomez or Chris Drury. They still made some nice moves, though. Nik Antropov is a huge, gritty forward, and that's something the Rangers are desperately lacking. They also picked up Derek Morris. The defenseman wasn't nearly as good in Phoenix as he was in Colorado or Calgary, but he adds power play depth and defensive intensity to the Rangers.

Pittsburgh Penguins - The Pens made their biggest impact before the trade when they traded Ray Whitney for Chris Kunitz. They made a significant deal on deadline day, though, when they picked up winger Bill Guerin. He's 38 and has seen better days, but he's a natural playmaker who may be able to play well with Sidney Crosby. Even if he ends up somewhere else, he's a tough, dependable veteran who will be a positive influence for a young team that has a tough fight ahead of them just to make the playoffs.

Standing Still

Several contenders were notable by their inaction. For the most part, the lack of moves made sense.

Detroit Red Wings - Detroit doesn't have much cap space, but they also don't have many flaws. The only potential need was a goaltender, and it was hard to find a guy who was affordable and was sure to be better than the two guys they have now. He certainly wasn't going to come without a big cost, and this team has been as successful as they are in large part because they stick to the plan and don't splurge on flashy talent unless it fits into their needs. Detroit was the favorite to win it all before the trade deadline, and they still are.

Vancouver Canucks - Vancouver is trying to chase down Calgary. They didn't change anything at the deadline, but they were playing so well at the time that they didn't need to, or want to risk the current chemistry. They really made their big splash before Christmas when they acquired Mats Sundin. You could argue that Vancouver could have been well served making a trade or two because they have more looming unrestricted free agents than they could possibly re-sign, and they could have at least got something in exchange. That's risky, though, especially when a team is a reasonable contender.

New Jersey Devils - A deadline deal can give a legitimate contender a boost. The Devils got their boost a week before the deadline when Martin Brodeur returned to action after a long injury absence. They are happy offensively and solid defensively. The only move they might have made is moving goalie Scott Clemmensen before they lose him as a free agent, but he's a very nice security blanket in case Brodeur suffers another setback. That security is more valuable than whatever they could have gotten for him.

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MLB Season Win Totals Predictions

MLB Season Win Totals Predictions

Now that we are in the midst of spring training and we are starting to think about baseball again, most sportsbooks have posted their season win totals for major league baseball. These are by far my favorite season-long props. Not only are they a lot of fun and occasionally soft and profitable, but thinking about them also forces you to start thinking about baseball in a real way again so that you are ready for the season when it rolls around. As always, there are all sorts of the numbers that were interesting to me as I looked around and thought about them. Here's a look:

Arizona Diamondbacks - 86.5 - I keep hearing that the D-Backs are neck-and-neck with the Dodgers in the NL West, but I just don't buy it. I like Brandon Webb a lot, obviously, but there isn't another starter in the picture that fills me with warmth and trust. I also see at least as many questions and issues with the lineup as I do things to get excited about. I am enthusiastically on the under here.

Cincinnati Reds - 78.5 - There is a lot I like about this team. They have a very solid rotation with a couple of spots just oozing potential, and they have some young bats that could become something special. That being said, I think that this number is overly optimistic. I hope I am wrong for their sake, but if I had to take a side I wouldn't hesitate to go under.

Cleveland Indians - 85.5 - I'm not going to be this much of a pessimist the whole way through, but I'd go under again here. I don't think they have the depth they need to compete, and I don't trust their rotation at all. Fausto Carmona needs to prove he can bounce back, and Cliff Lee surely can't be the same super-human freak he was last year. They may be able to compete in the AL Central, but that isn't exactly going to be a strong conference this year.

Colorado Rockies - 77.5 - In my eyes this is the worst number on the board. With Jeff Francis on the shelf this team has very suspect pitching, Todd Helton is ancient, and their best power hitter is wearing different colors this year. I don't see much to like here, and I really don't see how they would win anywhere close to 78 games.

Florida Marlins - 75.5 - I don't have a particularly strong reason, but I would lean to the over here. Florida always finds way to get the most out of young talent, and given that this seems like a very reasonable number. Their rotation lacks star power, but it is young and full of potential. If one or two of those youngsters discovers their game then this team could flirt with .500.

Kansas City Royals - 75.5 - People seem to be jumping on this bandwagon, so I might as well join them and go over. The front end of the rotation - Zack Grienke and Gil Meche - is very good, and the pieces behind them could fall into place nicely. Young players like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler should take steps forward, and they are well supported with the addition of guys like Coco Crisp. I also really like manager Trey Hillman. It might be a lot to ask given how bad they have been for so long, but I could easily imagine this as a .500 team.

L.A. Dodgers - 84.5 - Given that I already determined that I don't like the Diamondbacks much, and that the Padres and Rockies are terrible, there are a lot of wins to be had in the NL West. The Dodgers, in my mind, are going to get more than their share. Their pitching is competent. More importantly, though, they have a good lineup. Manny Ramirez does remarkable things to protect hitters and provide opportunities for his teammates. His firepower in unmatched in the division, and I could easily see them win 90 games. That makes the over a nice play.

New York Mets - 89.5 - I was surprised by this number. They won 89 games last year, and that was with a late collapse. They have a bullpen that has gone from barely average to probably the best in the league, and they have a rotation that should be better with age. The power is still there, and they are solid defensively. That all adds up to a comfortable over in my eyes.

New York Yankees - 95.5 - The heavy action seems to be on the under here, so you can have the over at a nice discount. Call me contrary, but I'll go against the crowd. I don't expect Toronto and Tampa Bay to be as good as last year, Baltimore is terrible, and Boston didn't keep up with New York's improvements. That should lead to more division wins. They have the best rotation they have had in a long while, and the depth is ridiculous - even without A-Rod for a couple of months. The over seems to be worth a shot.

Philadelphia Phillies - 88.5 - I am not optimistic about the Phillies as they try to defend their title. For starters, it's extremely hard for a team to come back after a title and win as many games as they did the year before. The Phillies kept most of their lineup intact, but they did very little to get better. The teams around them, most notably the Mets and Braves, did more. I am not entirely counting the Phillies out, but I would lean to the under and a win total of something like 85-87 wins.

Best Picks for the NCAA Tournament

Best Picks for the NCAA Tournament

The NCAA Basketball season is winding down as we approach the exciting conference tournaments that will be followed by the NCAA Tournament. Records and rankings mean absolutely nothing once the NCAA Tournament begins and it simply comes down to who is playing the best basketball at this point in the year. Of course, there will be the favorite teams that many people will wager on to win it all, but who has the ability to be a Cinderella story in 2009? We take a look at some of the best picks for the NCAA Tournament championship this year. If you want to get the best odds for your wager consider making a play now before the tournament starts and have the opportunity to really profit from the Big Dance.

Pick - North Carolina Tar Heels (5-2)

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the leading favorites to bring home the hardware this season. North Carolina has without a doubt the most talented lineup as all five starters are averaging 11 or more points. While the odds do not favor a big profit, UNC will still be the biggest threat of the tournament. Former Player of the Year Tyler Hansbrough and junior Ty Lawson both returned after the last season with ambitions of a national title. In two of their only three losses this season, North Carolina was defeated by a mere three points and all were to ACC opponents. The regular season can get grueling in conference play and oftentimes you may see teams come out flat. However, do not expect North Carolina to be caught sleeping come tournament time. The Tar Heels will come out firing and if they give their best effort every night it will make it very difficult for anyone to bring them down.

Pick - Pittsburgh Panthers (5-1)

Pittsburgh may have been hidden in the shadow of top-ranked Connecticut a good portion of the year, but they may be the best team suitable for the NCAA Tournament out of the Big East. The Panthers were the No. 1 team in America for a good portion of the early regular season. However, after two rather disappointing losses to Villanova and Louisville not much was heard from Pittsburgh until they defeated Connecticut while they were ranked No. 1 only a few weeks ago. DeJuan Blair has become one of the best young players in college basketball and is staged to make a big impact the rest of the way out.

Pick - Connecticut Huskies (5-1)

Connecticut owns the No. 1 ranking currently heading into a big season finale with Pittsburgh. Despite the outcome, the Huskies are a lock for a No. 1 seed in March. The Huskies have been the most consistent front runner in basketball this season and are the only teams towards the top to not really suffer a stunning upset at any point this season. Connecticut hosts two stellar performers in Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Thabeet who are both averaging double-double numbers. Thabeet especially has turned into a dynamic force for the Huskies inside the paint. Connecticut, along with Pittsburgh, will be suited well for the NCAA Tournament due to their outstanding schedule they have had to endure in the Big East this season.

Pick - Wake Forest Demon Deacons (17-1)

The Demon Deacons are the forgotten team out of the ACC. Once the nation's No. 1 team, Wake Forest struggled a good bit during conference play. However, this is still one of the best offensive teams in America led by one of the best young guards in the country by the name of Jeff Teague. Teague has averaged 20 points on the season and just maybe Wake Forest can return to their dominant stature (they started the season 16-0). The Demon Deacons are receiving good odds for the NCAA Tournament, making them an interest to consider a for a long-odds gamble. Wake Forest's energy level seems to have run out towards the end of the season, but just maybe the Demon Deacons will have some time to rest and make a legitimate run in the tournament.

Pick - Kansas Jayhawks (25-1)

Oklahoma has been the talked about team in the Big 12 all season, but it became apparent how much they rely on Blake Griffin when they lost the superstar to a concussion for two games. Kansas has quietly sneaked into the picture and is near lock to win the Big 12 regular season title. However, there has been little talk nationally concerning last year's National Champions. Kansas is extremely young with their best years ahead of them, but that does not mean that this year's team does not have what it takes. The Jayhawks defeated Oklahoma, 87-78, in late February and have only one loss in the last 14 games. Kansas is receiving 25-to-1 odds for the 2009 Championship and considering how they have played the second half of the season it would not be wise to consider them as a potential threat in March.

College Basketball Betting: Big East Tournament Preview

College Basketball Betting: Big East Tournament Preview

The Big East Tournament decided that sending teams to the NCAA, NIT and CBE Tournaments wouldn't be enough this year. So they decided to team up for a little Sweet 16 of their own from March 10 through March 14 at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

For the first time in recent Big East Tournament history all of the teams in this mega-conference will converge on the Big Apple with hopes of punching an automatic ticket to The Big Dance. The No. 9 through No. 16 seeds will play in first round games on Tuesday and then face seeds No. 5 through eight in second round games on Wednesday. The top four seeds - Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut and Villanova - actually get double byes into the quarterfinals yet still have to win three games in order to cut down the nets.

THE FAVORITES:

No. 1 Louisville - There is some debate over whether or not the Cardinals deserved the top seed in this tournament because they benefited from an unbalanced schedule. But regardless, the Cardinals are in a great position to make it to the Finals. Also, if they win this tournament they may be able to move all they way up to a No. 1 seed. They will get either Providence or Cincinnati in the quarterfinals. They won and covered against both squads, but I would say that both were closer than the final score indicated. After that they would get either Villanova or Marquette, a pair of teams that the Cardinals beat by a combined five points earlier this year. The Cards have won seven straight and are 17-2 straight up and 13-6 against the spread since Jan. 4.

No. 2 Pittsburgh - The Panthers are the defending Big East champions and have actually played in the finals in three consecutive years. They are arguably the best team in the country right now, but after their emotionally draining title last year I wonder if this team really wants to win this tournament. They will play either Notre Dame or West Virginia in the quarters and will need to focus against either opponent and avoid the look ahead to a potential rematch with the Huskies. But with Sam Young and DeJuan Blair the Panthers have the best one-two punch in the Big East.
No. 3 Connecticut - The Huskies have to be smarting a little bit. They went from being the No. 1 team in the country to the No. 3 team in the conference tournament. The Huskies really have not played well down the stretch since losing Jerome Dyson, going just 1-5 ATS in games without him. They also have lost their first game in this tournament in three consecutive seasons. Further, three of the last four years they have been knocked out by Syracuse, whom they could meet in the quarters.

THE CONTENDERS:

No. 4 Villanova - I actually like the Wildcats to cut down the nets in New York City this weekend. I think this team is still a bit undervalued right now, as evidenced by their 11-4 ATS run into NYC. I love Scottie Reynolds and I think that if they can get past Marquette - no small task and a really tough matchup - that they can beat Louisville in the rematch. However, this team could also flame out. They really benefited from a favorable conference schedule this year and I don't know if they are proven against the top tier.

No. 5 Marquette - The Golden Eagles have really hit the skids since losing senior point guard Dominic James for the season. Perhaps as important as James' presence and experience on the court is the emotional toll that his loss has taken on Marquette. They limp into The Big Apple losing four straight games and they are just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS against the top six seeds in the Big East.

No. 6 Syracuse - The Orange look like a team that is peaking at the right time and is a solid dark horse in this tournament. The Orange won back-to-back championships in 2005 and 2006 as underdogs each time. This is a team that always plays well in the Garden and has Final Four talent. However, they still are shaky with the basketball, don't rebound well, don't shoot free throws well, and they got crushed in every game that they played against the top tier teams in the conference. Be wary.

THE SLEEPERS:

No. 7 West Virginia - The Mountaineers have shown the ability to lose to the top teams in the Big East but they haven't scored anything more than a 21-point home win over Villanova. They are just 2-6 ATS and 1-7 SU against the top six seeds in the tournament. However, if they can hold off Notre Dame they would get a third crack at their rivals, Pitt, as a sizeable underdog.

No. 8 Providence - The Friars are one of the bubble teams playing in New York this weekend and they likely have to win three games to punch their ticket. They will likely face Cincinnati, another bubble foe, in the second round and have beaten the Bearcats twice this season. However, it's tough to beat a team three times in one year.

No. 10 Notre Dame - The only reason I even mention the Irish here is to state how bad they are. This team is soft and is a pathetic 8-16 ATS this year. This team does have one of the best players in the conference (Luke Harangody) and does have some talent and experience. But they are just 5-10 SU in their last 15 games and are too soft to win five straight.

No. 12 Georgetown - Georgetown is another team whose only shot at the NCAA Tournament is winning the Big East tourney. But don't be fooled: this team is not good. They just lost to St. John's and are an inexperienced, uninspired group.

MATCHUPS:

No. 16 DePaul vs. No. 9 Cincinnati
DePaul is the worst team from a BCS conference that I have seen play this year, by far, and their only win since CHRISTMAS was over Alcorn State. They were 0-18 SU and 6-12 ATS in conference play this year, including a four-point home loss to the Bearcats. Cincinnati has lost five of six outright and they have not been a good road team all year. They will likely be favored - I think the line is 7.5 - but are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven as a chalk.

No. 13. St. John's vs. No. 12 Georgetown
The Hoyas actually lost to St. John's on this very court just a scant week ago. The Red Storm came back from a 14-point second half deficit to force overtime and then popped the Hoyas' bubble, 59-56. The Red Storm is a pretty young team and hasn't performed well on its de facto home court in the tourney lately. But don't think for one second that "revenge" is going to be a factor.

No. 15 Rutgers vs. No. 10 Notre Dame
Notre Dame is certainly a team on a mission and is much more talented than Rutgers. But Notre Dame actually lost to St. John's on their court earlier in the year. Notre Dame beat Rutgers by just five points - in South Bend - just a couple weeks ago. Also, the Irish are just 3-8 ATS as a favorite recently. Rutgers is just 2-17 SU since Christmas but they are a solid 8-4 ATS as an underdog of 7.5 or more in those games.

No. 14. South Florida vs. No. 11 Seton Hall
Seton Hall is potentially a team to watch for in this tournament and this should be a decent game. The Pirates are a respectable 7-5 SU in their last 12 games and a sensational 9-3 ATS in their last 12. This team has good guard play and they are a veteran bunch. In fact, this club just beat South Florida by 15 points in Jersey two weeks ago. The line on that game was 7.0 so I definitely wouldn't be laying any more than that.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:

In the early rounds of this tournament you can't write off the teams from the lower tier. They are scrappy as hell and should be catching a load of points in their second round game. Cincinnati, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Seton Hall and South Florida have either sprung upsets or come damn close against the top tier. I think the double-bye is clearly going to be a huge advantage and I'll be stunned if three of the top four seeds aren't still around in the semifinals. I think a team to really keep an eye on is Villanova. I think that they will beat Louisville - if they manage to get by Marquette - and then I really think that either Pittsburgh or Connecticut will be winded by the time the finals come around. Pitt could have to play rival West Virginia (who always plays well in The Garden) and Connecticut has to face its rival, Syracuse (who owns The Garden). Then it's Pitt-UConn III.

Finally, the team that has won the Big East tournament has been a solid fade in the NCAA Tournament in recent years. This week in New York is such an emotional grind and it just takes so much out of teams that they don't have anything left in the tank for The Big Dance. Keep an eye on who wins and how they get there to see if that trend continues.