Showing posts with label sports handicapping. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sports handicapping. Show all posts

Friday, April 10, 2009

NBA Rookie of the Year Odds and Betting Predictions

NBA Rookie of the Year Odds and Betting Predictions

With the NBA's regular season set to conclude on April 15, it's time to start thinking about the Association's 2008-09 awards. You can check back at Doc's soon for MVP, Coach of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year stories, etc., but we'll start with the Eddie Gottlieb Trophy, which goes to the NBA's Rookie of the Year. The trophy, if you were wondering, is named in honor of the former Philadelphia Warriors coach and owner. I didn't know that …

BetEd lists seven current candidates for NBA Rookie of the Year with odds: Derrick Rose (-1200), O.J. Mayo (+150), Russell Westbrook (+350), Brook Lopez (+2000), Michael Beasley (+5000), Greg Oden (+9000) and Marc Gasol (+9000).

Let's breakdown each guy with some NBA Rookie of the Year predictions, from the longshots to the favorite, although this race isn't much of one behind Rose.

--Oden, Trail Blazers: Despite the fact he appears to be in his mid-40s, and was drafted in 2007, Oden is indeed a rookie. But he has had what only can be considered a disappointing year, mostly due to injuries. The former Ohio State big man has missed 21 games with various injuries, which no doubt is causing Blazer fans to think he might be the second-coming of Sam Bowie and that the team should have taken Kevin Durant instead. Maybe he will still evolve into a mini-Bill Russell, but he has to stay on the floor. At least he will be one of the three rookies on this list to reach the postseason, but he hasn't played more than 30 minutes in a game since January.

--Gasol, Grizzlies: If Gasol wasn't in Memphis and wasn't from Spain, he might have a lot more run as a top rookie candidate and certainly better odds. He might well be the most surprising rookie of this class, as Pau's brother is averaging 11.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. His emergence makes the trade of his brother to the Lakers a little less-lopsided - Marc Gasol was one of the pieces that went back to Memphis, and definitely the best one now.

--Beasley, Heat: The former Kansas State star can put up 20 points as easily as allow 20 to the opposing power forward. And averaging just over five rebounds a game won't cut it at that position. You'd have to say Beasley was a bit disappointing this year, especially on defense, but he probably will be a 20-point-a-night guy in the league within a year or two.

--Lopez, Nets: True centers just don't win the Rookie of the Year Award, with the last being Shaquille O'Neal in 1993 (Emeka Okafor, Tim Duncan and Amare Stoudemire are not full-time centers). And even Lopez says he would vote for Rose. But Lopez probably has been the best value pick from the 2008 draft, as he was No. 10 overall and is averaging 13 points (shooting better than 53 percent) and 7.9 rebounds a game. Lopez will get some votes for Rookie of the Year. He won't win it but might finish second and will be one of the best centers in the East for some time.

--Westbrook, Thunder: A lot of people thought the then-Sonics reached when they took the UCLA guard No. 4 overall. But he has proven to be a future star and a nice piece along with Jeff Green and 2007 Rookie of the Year Kevin Durant on an up-and-coming team.

--Mayo, Grizzlies: He will end up as the top rookie scorer in this class, and he moved to the top of the rookie rankings on sites such as ESPN in February after averaging 19.7 ppg that month, but he has fallen back. Mayo is a points machine but must improve his shooting percentage and stop turning the ball over. But with Mayo and Gasol, Memphis has the best overall rookie class of 2008-09.

--Rose, Bulls: Folks, the award is a lock to be his unless somehow the Bulls stage a colossal collapse in the final week and miss the playoffs. The Chicago native is the only rookie playing truly meaningful minutes on a playoff team, and he leads all rookies in assists and is second to Mayo in scoring. Rose also has taken over as the leader of his team and is shooting pretty well from the field (47 percent). He still doesn't have three-point range, and coach Vinny Del Negro has taken him out for defensive purposes in a few games, but Rose will become the first Eastern Conference player to win Rookie of the Year since Okafor in 2004-05 and first Bull since Elton Brand in 1999-2000.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

MonsterBuck crushing the books again


MonsterBuck went 5-1 yesterday: 2-0 in the MLB, hitting his Championship Total in the NCAAB. Thats more than $1000 profit just in one day! Join him today at SpreadConsultants, picking winners every day is every sportsbettors dream! Crush your bookie today!


Good luck on your action.


PS Any interested in the picks can leave a comment or feedback, so we can discuss great discounts, such as free picks for a week/month, guaranteed picks and so like.

Monday, April 6, 2009

Afternoon delight: MLB opening day early game previews

Make sure you know the details on the horses you back today. The weather has already delayed one home opener and it could be a factor in a few others. Here's a little cheat sheet that will hopefully help with today's wagers.


New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (+150, 7.5): Johan Santana vs. Aaron Harang
The Mets start the season with a six-game road trip before playing San Diego on April 15 in their first game at the new ballpark. They'll look to ace pitcher Johan Santana (16-7, 2.53 ERA) to help them open the year with a victory.


Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-145, 8.5): Jamie Shields vs. Josh Beckett
The Rays and the Red Sox are scheduled to open the 2009 season at Fenway on Monday afternoon, though rain is in the forecast and could push Game 1 back to an off-day Tuesday.


Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers (+115, 10): Cliff Lee vs. Kevin Millwood
The Indians and their ace pitcher hope to erase memories of a miserable spring training, when Cliff Lee was 0-3 with a 12.46 ERA in six starts and the ball club won only 12 of 35 games.


Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-165, 7.5): Aaron Cook vs. Brandon Webb
Arizona manager Bob Melvin's opening day lineup will be a bit different than his normal everyday look. He will start Eric Byrnes in right field in place of Justin Upton and shift Chad Tracy from first base to third, with Tony Clark getting the start at first. Upton and regular third baseman Mark Reynolds will sit, but only for one day, Melvin said.


New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (+175, 8.5): CC Sabathia vs. Jeremy Guthrie
Armed with baseball's steepest payroll, the Yankees realize the importance of beginning the season on a roll. New York went 14-15 last April and never really recovered in its first season under manager Joe Girardi.


Washington Nationals at Florida Marlins (-160, 8): John Lannan vs. Ricky Nolasco
The Nationals could have a hard time getting off on the right foot with Ricky Nolasco taking the mound for the Marlins on Monday. The right-hander went 5-2 with a 2.80 ERA over his last 12 starts in 2008 to finish 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA.


Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-185, 8): Paul Malhomn vs. Adam Wainwright Although Wainwright was the Cardinals' opening day starter last season, the game was rained out. There is snow in the forecast for St. Louis on Monday. Wainwright went 11-3 with a 3.20 ERA in 20 starts in 2008, and was 5-0 with a 3.35 ERA in his final seven starts after missing 2 1/2 months with a sprained right middle finger.


Thursday, April 2, 2009

MonsterBuck with a huge card for Thursday


Check out our winning sport picks at www.spreadconsultants.com

Today MonsterBuck has 8 winners, a huge card. In every sport he picked the best matchups, with some blowout winners in the NBA and NHL. He's doing really great! If you're into sportsbetting, you know its very hard, if not impossible to hit 60% in the long run. But MB is doing it, every day. If you're not into sportsbetting, let me make it clear, he's just making money. If you bet $10, $20 a game, you still had made a nice profit, more than $2000! Be sure to check the plays out at our website, and be a winner too.

Baseball Betting System: Pythagorean Expectations

Baseball Betting System: Pythagorean Expectations

Pythagoras is a famous Greek philosopher (can someone name me a non-mythical famous Greek who wasn't some kind of philosopher?) and mathematician. He is most famous for his triangle theory but he turned out to be a pretty bitchin' dude and he believed that numbers were the foundation of life and the ultimate reality. He believed that through math "everything could be predicted and measured in rhythmic patterns or cycles." In other words, he was kind of a latter day Bill James.

So I suppose its not a surprise to learn that Bill James, a baseball writer, historian and statistician who basically invented the field of sabermetrics in baseball, concocted a formula for measuring the expected number of wins for any given Major League Baseball team. This metric attempts to quantify how "lucky" a particular team is by comparing the number of games a team "should" have won (based on the formula) to the amount of games that team actually won. James dubbed his formula the Pythagorean Expectation because of its similarity to Pythagoras' theorem.

Here is the actual formula:

Basically, James simplifies the game into its most basic components - runs scored and runs allowed - and used that more to explain how well or how poorly teams performed. At first the correlation between James' formula and the actual winning percentage of teams was a mere experiment. But other statisticians and probability theorists (whom I presume are also fans of America's Former Pastime) were able to determine that the formula can give a probability for future wins.

I know, I know: reading about this stuff is enough to make your eyes roll back into your head. But this year I factored in the Pythagorean Expectations into my MLB futures bets and I'm very interested to see the results for this baseball betting system. If they are anything close to what I've observed from the last several years then I think we may have found a significant moneymaker for years to come.

The summation of this formula can actually be found right on the MLB.com website. In the league standings you have the option of viewing the "X-Wins", which is the measure of a team's Pythagorean Expectations, or their "expected wins."

Using that number I went back to track the teams with the biggest discrepancies from year to year, dating back to 2001. If a team had an actual win total of 89 and an X-Wins total of just 84 then it's safe to say that our team overachieved by five wins (+5). The reverse is also true. If a team finished the year with 72 wins but had an X-Wins total of 79 then that club underachieved by seven wins (-7).

Arbitrarily, I determined that 4.0 would be the threshold for significance for determining if a team over- or underachieved. And since 2001 a total of 76 teams, out of a possible 240, either over- or underachieved according to our threshold. So what I did was to group the teams that overachieved and the ones that underachieved and to compare each individual club's results the following year. However, while 4.0 was the initial threshold I found that if you bumped that up 5.0 you actual returned more significant wagering results.

Teams that were +5 or higher according to the Pythagorean Expectations - that means that the difference between their Actual Wins and their X-Wins were 5.0 or higher - actually had fewer wins the following season in 22 of the 32 instances. And it makes sense because if a team overachieves one season then it's most likely going to experience a natural statistical regression and come up short the following season.

Our underachievers - teams with a -5 or below Expectation - also went the opposite way and they ended up winning more total games in 23 of the 35 occurrences over the last eight years.

Now, using the formula and my generic threshold significance of +/-4 I may have found a consistent moneymaker when considering futures bets. I started by comparing the 2005 results to the 2006 season wins totals released by Las Vegas Sports Consultants. I wanted to see how the teams that overachieved and underachieved in 2005 did against the 2006 Vegas wins totals, and I then repeated the exercise for each of the following years. The results were eye opening.

Teams that we have deemed "overachievers", that is teams with a differential of +4 or higher went just 6-9-1 (40 percent) against the Vegas wins totals the following year. If we bump our threshold up to +5 we actually lost a few percentage points as those teams were just 5-7-1 (41.6 percent) against the Vegas wins. And placing a futures bet against these overachievers the year after turned a profit all three years.

The results were even better when you bet on teams to bounce back after an "underachieving" year of -4 or less. Those teams went an outstanding 11-7 (61.1 percent) in the last three years against the Vegas wins totals. They would have had an overall losing season in 2007, going just 3-4, but a 5-2 year in 2006 and a 3-1 year in 2008 would have made this system an overall winner.

And the results for the underachievers get even better if you raise the threshold to -5 or less. Those teams went a sensational 9-2 against the Vegas wins totals over the last three years and produced a profit each individual season.

Overall, betting against ('under') the season wins totals of our overachieving teams (+4 or higher) and betting on ('over') the season wins totals of our underachieving teams (-4 or worse) would have gone 20-13-1 against Vegas season wins totals over the last three years. And if we narrow our underachievers to -5 or worse that raises our record to 18-8-1 and gives us a sensational 69.2 winning percentage!

This year we have only two qualifiers that were overachievers last year. Tampa Bay's Actual Wins total was 97 last year their Pythagorean Expectations (or X-Wins) was just 91. That gives them a +6 and means that we should bet the 'under' against their season wins total this year, which is currently 89.0. Houston (+9) also fits that category and their 2009 season wins total is currently at 74.5.

Those two teams - Tampa Bay and Houston - represent the smallest number of "overachievers" to bet on in the last four years.

Our pool of underachievers is a bit broader. Toronto (-7), Atlanta (-7), Baltimore (-5) and San Diego (-5) should all be teams that we play 'over' against their season wins totals. Also, Cleveland (-4) and Detroit (-4) fit in the original threshold and are worth a look even though they don't pass the -5 filter.

You really don't need to fully understand the math behind this. You don't need to understand Pythagorean philosophy, Bill James' sabermetrics, or anything else. All you have to understand for this baseball betting system is this: had you bet $1,000 on each of these season win totals you would have been up a cool $9,200 and all it would take is the MLB.com site, a calculator, and about 15 minutes of work.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

If you like to win money..


Hey readers and fellow sports bettors,

MonsterBuck went 2-0 in the MLB yesterday winning $600 just in one night! Join him on his winning journey, if you like to win money of course. His picks in different sports will make you some serious cash. You can get his winners at SpreadConsultants.com.

Good luck on your action!

Monday, March 30, 2009

MonsterBuck got winners for you again!

MonsterBuck from SpreadConsultants, the most honest solid sports handicapper on the internet, has a couple of easy blowout winners for you today! He placed bets on the NBA, MLB and NHL, and is sure his pockets will be stuffed with cash after tonights games. Want to win too?

Sportsbetting is easy to beat, if you know the most important info. MonsterBuck shares this information with you, and making you a true 'bookie-crusher'!

Good luck on your action.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Sweet Sixteen Predictions

Sweet Sixteen Predictions

With the Sweet 16 just a couple of days away, here's my attempt to offer some Sweet 16 predictions on which teams are the best bets:

Thursday

Connecticut (-7) vs. Purdue - Strong defense tends to thrive in the tournament, and both of these teams have top-rate defenses - in the Top 5 by defensive efficiency. The difference here is going to be the pace of play. UConn plays a far more up-tempo style that capitalizes on their size advantage over virtually everyone they play. Purdue will need to slow things down and set the tone if they want to have a chance. As much as I like the Big Ten, I don't think the Boilermakers can pull it off. It's a near-certainty that the Huskies will have a significant rebounding edge. Purdue has struggled against fast, hot guards this year, and UConn's backcourt is on fire right now. I expect this one to be tough and fun, but I think in the end Purdue just won't have enough to measure up.

Pitt (-7) vs. Xavier - The Musketeers beat Wisconsin in the second round largely by lulling the Badgers to sleep in the second half. Xavier is very solid defensively, and they set the tempo as well as any team in the country. They can also score pretty well, though not as well as the Panthers. Pitt is bigger and stronger, and they use that size to assert themselves offensively with ruthless efficiency. That means that this game will be a battle of wills. I probably favor the Panthers, but Xavier is playing very well, they have the experience of being in this round just last year, and they have nothing to lose. My hunch is that this line gives the Panthers too much credit.

Memphis (-4.5) vs. Missouri - Perhaps more than any other game, this one comes down to one player - Memphis freshman point guard Tyreke Evans. Memphis has a lethal combination - a relentless, ball moving offense, and the most efficient defense in the country. They haven't lost since Evans moved to the point, but he has only been okay so far during the tournament. If he returns to his impressive late-season form then the Tigers should be able to roll here much like they did against Maryland. Even if he doesn't, Missouri has perhaps the smallest margin of error of any remaining team - they need to play as close to flawless as they can or they will be vulnerable against a better team. I expect the Tigers to roar.

Duke (-2.5) vs. Villanova - Maybe I am drawn to Villanova just because I dislike Duke so very much. Or maybe I just like the matchup for the Wildcats. Duke is as much of a one-dimensional perimeter team as there is. If teams can contain and control that then the Blue Devils are likely in trouble. Villanova can probably do that. Their guards use speed and pressure to disrupt opponents and take away shots. That speed will also let them exploit Duke on the break like Texas did in the last round. Duke also doesn't have an answer for Villanova's big man, Dante Cunningham. Villanova has the advantages and the momentum, and I give them a solid edge.

Friday

Louisville (-9) vs. Arizona - I'll keep this one brief - Louisville was my pick to win it all before the tournament, and they still are. That being said, I'm not convinced that this line makes sense. The Wildcats have a trio of talented players, an explosive offense, a defense that is playing well of late, and momentum. Louisville is the better team and should win, but it could very easily be by less than nine points.

Oklahoma (-1) vs. Syracuse - Oklahoma beat Michigan by 10 points, but the game was closer than the score. Michigan was penalized by the refs far more than the Sooners, had absolutely no answer for Blake Griffin, and went long stretches displaying ridiculous offensive futility, and still were in it until late in the second half. Syracuse has more size, more speed, better shooting, and much more momentum than Michigan. I see them getting through this one and keeping their hot streak alive.

Michigan State (-1.5) vs. Kansas - I have a hard time respecting Kansas right now. They deserve credit for getting where they are considering what they lost. Still, it's hard to argue that they aren't overachieving. They benefited from a relatively weak conference to get their seeding, and don't have the experience or seasoning to go further in my eyes. That's not the same for Michigan State. They are deep, tough, seasoned, and focused on playing in the Final Four at home. The Kansas repeat bid ends here.

North Carolina (-8.5) vs. Gonzaga - Every time I look at this one I change my mind. Since before the tournament started I have had a feeling that UNC is vulnerable and poised to fall. That hasn't changed. Sometimes I think that Gonzaga is the team to end the Tar Heels' run. When they play their best they certainly could. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs also have the ability to disappoint and underwhelm when the pressure is on. To pick Gonzaga to win, or even to cover, you have to take a leap of faith that they can perform at their best. Given the number of points they are given, I'm willing to bet that they will. UNC is vulnerable in two key ways - they don't play great defense when pressed to do so, and they get frustrated when teams are able to get back defensively and limit the effectiveness of the North Carolina fast break. Gonzaga is offensively potent and defensively sound, and they have the potential to manage both feats.

From one of our clients.

An email from one of our clients. Really glad you guys are killing your bookies, we're only here to help!

Dear SpreadConsultants,

Just wanted to let you know that you're doing a great job with what you're doing, picking winners. I used to handicap sports myself, but never could win on the long run. Never had the cool head to pick without being bias. Never made money with sportsbetting, but that changed rapidly. Switched from one service to another. The small investment buying your picks (you know I bought your monthly package) is definitely worth it. $180 for a month of picks, while some scamdicappers ask $100-$150 just for one pick?! I dont want to mention any names, but everybody knows who Im talking about. A year ago, I bought picks from an other handicapping service, and it was simply horrible. They changed their records and picks during the games, to have a shiny record!! I posted this stuff on different forums, such as theRX, EOG, SBR and so on, but many guys keep buying these scammy GOY, GOM, LOCKS etc. Then, they tried to offer me a yearly package for $1500! I cut off this scamdicappers, and started to search for a new service.

Wanted to mention, Im not a dime-player, I just wager 50 bucks a game. Sometimes even less. Your cappers, I bought Kklene and MonsterBucks packages, made me over $5.000 each, betting just $50 a game. Most pro-handicappers are looking for 57% winning rate, but your guys are hitting 60%+, thats adding up to the ROI. Im going to stick to your picks, and buy the baseball packages when its available.

Keep up the great work, and keep them winners coming!

Christopher

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

SpreadConsultants making money in the March Madness!


MonsterBuck - the hottest capper on the internet, no doubt! This is what you need in the March Madness!!! He has been amazing in the NCAAB, going on a incredible 19-3 run (+$4,289), and an overall record of 82-39 (68%) +$8,411 in this sport. MonsterBuck got winners in the March Maddness on Tuesday 24/03/09 for you, dont miss them!! The all sports record is also unreal, hitting 60% over 250+ plays, going 158-105!! MonsterBuck made his loyal clients more than $10,500 in a few weeks!! Even the small-time ($20) bettors would have made more than $2000!! Be sure to jump on this hot capper, because it seems like this capper is unbeatable at the moment. The affordable packages are now available, and its never too late to join MonsterBuck.

NCAA Tournament Betting: Updated Odds to Win Regionals

NCAA Tournament Betting: Updated Odds to Win Regionals

Did you know that there are pockets in the city of Detroit in which the average home price is just $22,000? No, I'm not missing a digit there: according to CNN the average price of a house in the Motor City is slightly less than a 2009 PT Cruiser.

So, if you had dropped $500 on a futures bet on the Arizona Wildcats to win the Midwest Region - the opening odds on the 'Cats were 60-to-1 - do you think you would cruise on into the Cass Corridor and pick up a four-bedroom, two-bath crib with your winnings?
The Future is now for the 16 sweet college hoops teams that are still playing in the NCAA men's basketball tournament. Before the Big Dance tipped off last Thursday there were futures wagers available for each of the four regional sites. These short-term futures are one of the best values in futures betting, in any sport, and before this weekend's action shapes the Final Four teams you can still get a little cheddar down on who you think will survive weekend No. 2.
However, with the current odds you probably can only secure a down payment on a Detroit home (or a PT Cruiser) as opposed to full cash payment. Here are is a breakdown of the four regions of the NCAA Tournament along with updated regional futures odds:

MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS) REGIONAL

All season long Louisville has shown a disturbing penchant for mailing it in during the first half of games. They were up just two points over feeble Morehead State in Round 1 and just seven points over Siena in Round 2. But those lackluster halves haven't been enough to deter oddsmakers from lowing the payout on the Cardinals to win the Midwest Region. They opened the tournament at 6-to-5 favorites but now are paying significantly less at 1-to-2.
The No. 2 seed, Michigan State, and the No. 3 seed, Kansas, are actually equals in the odds of the futures oddsmakers. Both are currently listed at 2.5-to-1 and that could be telling in terms of which team the books are expecting to advance from their upcoming Friday tussle. Michigan State romped in the first meeting, but that was back in December in the Izzone.
Arizona experienced the second-highest spike in their odds over the weekend. They began the season as 60-to-1 underdogs to come out of the Midwest but are currently just an 8-to-1 bet to win a pair this weekend. They looked sharp and focused in the opening two rounds and will have just four days to prep for Louisville's pressure.

EAST (BOSTON) REGIONAL

Pittsburgh really struggled through its weekend, going 0-2 against the spread and barely holding off plucky No. 16 seed East Tennessee State in their opening game. It wasn't exactly a confidence builder for all of those folks holding futures for Pitt to cut down the nets in Detroit. In fact, their odds have held firm at 3-to-5 to win the East Regional. I said at the start of the tournament that I didn't think the Panthers were a championship team and I'm holding true to that sentiment. But whether they can get out of Boston is another story.
Duke's odds improved only slightly, moving from 2-to-1 to 17-to-10. Naturally, the Blue Devils are still overrated. They always are. But in this instance I think the odds of them beating Big East teams in back-to-back games are, um, a lot longer than 17-to-10. Villanova is still the East Regional sleeper at 3-to-1 and, in my opinion, offers a great value. Xavier was the weekend's biggest mover, dropping from 75-to-1 odds to come out of the East to a tidy 7-to-1 wager.

SOUTH (MEMPHIS) REGIONAL

In my opinion this is the most interesting regional in terms of reading the futures odds. First, North Carolina looked great over the weekend and Ty Lawson returned to bolster their title chances. However, their odds, 2-to-5, to win the region actually held firm. I would have expected Lawson's return to vault this team into the "unplayable favorite" range, but that doesn't appear to be the case.
Next, Oklahoma began the tournament as the only No. 2 seed with odds to win their regional at higher than 2.5-to-1. They were a very soft 6-to-1 to come out of Memphis, but now have seen that number shrink to 3.5-to-1. But that shift in the numbers tells me that the oddsmakers still aren't overly impressed with the Sooners and how they performed over the weekend.
Syracuse had perhaps the best weekend of any team in the field, dominating both of their opponents from start to finish. Interestingly enough, they find themselves in a similar situation to the Midwest Regional in that the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds have the same odds (3.5-to-1) to come out of their bracket. Yet SU and OU's odds are lower than the Michigan State-Kansas numbers.
Finally, Gonzaga got the obligatory bump from not getting bounced in the first round. This perpetually overrated club went from an 8-to-1 sucker bet to a 5-to-1 sucker bet.

WEST (GLENDALE) REGIONAL

Things were not really wild at all out west last weekend and as a result the odds in Glendale have more quivered than actually shifted. Purdue did drop from 12-to-1 to 5-to-1, which is significant, but not earth shattering. Beyond that, Connecticut barely shifted from 5.5-to-5 to 5-to-6 and Memphis tilted from 7-to-5 to 6.5-to-5. The fourth team, Missouri, might be the best value on the board at 5-to-1.
I would not be stunned to see Connecticut, Missouri or Purdue in the Motor City so that makes a futures wager in this region a high-risk, low-reward option.

SpreadConsultants

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Bet on Potential NBA Finals Matchups


Bet on Potential NBA Finals Matchups

You can bet on which teams you think are going to win the two conferences in the NBA, or which team is going to win it all, but for some people those just don't offer a big enough payoff to be interesting. People who have a taste for more action might want to look at the NBA Finals matchup props available now on Sportsbook.com. This prop allows you to bet on both teams at once - an effective parlay of the two conference winners. Here's a look at some that I find interesting, and some that just don't offer enough value to be worthwhile. We'll look at them as they are listed - by the Eastern Conference teams involved:

Cleveland Cavaliers vs:

On paper Cleveland doesn't necessarily have the depth to go all the way. They are a better Cleveland team than the last version that went to the Finals, though, and LeBron James gets better in every game. Mo Williams has been one of the bigger surprises in the league all year, and consistently wills his team to wins. Cleveland has the best record in the East, and clearly have what it takes to win it all.

L.A. Lakers - +200 - This is the second favorite on the whole board, and probably the one that most casual fans would like to see. It's hard to justify this as a worthwhile investment at this price, though - too many things could go wrong.

San Antonio Spurs - +900 - You'd never have guessed this one given how poorly the Spurs played to start the year. They are still so colorless that they are virtually invisible, but they have the experience and the depth, and they have shown that they can beat the Lakers this year. This price might not be great, but it's a bargain compared to the Lakers.

Houston Rockets - +2500 - The Rockets are hot, going 8-2 in the last 10 to move into third place in the conference. Still, they are only the fifth highest price in the conference here. That could indicate some value. They are finally reasonably healthy, and they have no shortage of wily veteran talent.

Utah Jazz - +1500 - If the Rockets are hot then the Jazz are burning up - they haven't lost in 12 games. A good point guard is so important to a playoff run, and Deron Williams is just tearing opponents up this year.

Boston Celtics vs:

The Celtics have the edge in experience over the Cavs and the Magic, and they have beat Cleveland twice in three tries this year. The biggest concern has to be health, though. Kevin Garnett has missed a lot of action recently. The Celtics have held their own without him now, but they couldn't do the same thing in the playoffs. The Celtics are favored over the Cavs, and that is reflected in the prices for the matchups, but the combination of Boston's age and injury problems makes me a bit uneasy about the prices associated with them.

L.A. Lakers - +175 - This rematch is seen as the most likely outcome by bettors. Boston probably isn't hoping for it, though - the Lakers have won both meetings this year. One thing to mention, and here is as good a place as any, is that the Lakers have been struggling lately, dropping three of their last five - all on the road. Every team goes through bad blips, and Boston had a whopper of a downturn earlier in the year, but Lakers obviously need to solve that which has been plaguing them recently.

The rest of the numbers are, as you would expect, just slightly lower than those for the Cavs.

Orlando Magic vs:

Dwight Howard is an incredibly compelling player, and the Magic are hanging out right behind the big two up front. I'd obviously be more excited about the long term prospects if Jameer Nelson were healthy and active, but it has been impressive how well the team has done without their spark plug in the back court.

The Magic are 1-2 against Boston and 1-0 against the Cavs, so they clearly are good enough to give either team a solid contest. If you believe in the Magic then you can get some comparative value here. The Lakers, for example, are at +900, the Spurs at +3500, the Jazz at +5500, and the Rockets at +9000. Any of those would give your bankroll a nice boost.

All the rest

It's reasonably hard to imagine any team beyond those big three sneaking through to the finals. A team in the East would likely have to beat at least two of the big three, and that would seem, from this perspective, to be almost impossible - especially in the NBA where the cream has a tendency to rise to the top over the long term. That doesn't mean that there isn't room for dreamers, though. For comparison, the Lakers can be had at +11000 when paired with the much-improved Bulls, +4000 for the finally decent Hawks, +5000 for the 76ers, +3000 combined with Dwyane Wade and his Heat, and +3500 with the Pistons. If you really don't like your money you could always bet that the pairing will be the Raptors and the Lakers. It won't happen, of course, but it would pay a sweet 300/1 if it did. The longest shot on the board pairs the Raptors with either the Suns or the Mavericks at the astronomical price of 5200/1.