NBA Rookie of the Year Odds and Betting Predictions

NBA Rookie of the Year Odds and Betting Predictions

With the NBA's regular season set to conclude on April 15, it's time to start thinking about the Association's 2008-09 awards. You can check back at Doc's soon for MVP, Coach of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year stories, etc., but we'll start with the Eddie Gottlieb Trophy, which goes to the NBA's Rookie of the Year. The trophy, if you were wondering, is named in honor of the former Philadelphia Warriors coach and owner. I didn't know that …

BetEd lists seven current candidates for NBA Rookie of the Year with odds: Derrick Rose (-1200), O.J. Mayo (+150), Russell Westbrook (+350), Brook Lopez (+2000), Michael Beasley (+5000), Greg Oden (+9000) and Marc Gasol (+9000).

Let's breakdown each guy with some NBA Rookie of the Year predictions, from the longshots to the favorite, although this race isn't much of one behind Rose.

--Oden, Trail Blazers: Despite the fact he appears to be in his mid-40s, and was drafted in 2007, Oden is indeed a rookie. But he has had what only can be considered a disappointing year, mostly due to injuries. The former Ohio State big man has missed 21 games with various injuries, which no doubt is causing Blazer fans to think he might be the second-coming of Sam Bowie and that the team should have taken Kevin Durant instead. Maybe he will still evolve into a mini-Bill Russell, but he has to stay on the floor. At least he will be one of the three rookies on this list to reach the postseason, but he hasn't played more than 30 minutes in a game since January.

--Gasol, Grizzlies: If Gasol wasn't in Memphis and wasn't from Spain, he might have a lot more run as a top rookie candidate and certainly better odds. He might well be the most surprising rookie of this class, as Pau's brother is averaging 11.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. His emergence makes the trade of his brother to the Lakers a little less-lopsided - Marc Gasol was one of the pieces that went back to Memphis, and definitely the best one now.

--Beasley, Heat: The former Kansas State star can put up 20 points as easily as allow 20 to the opposing power forward. And averaging just over five rebounds a game won't cut it at that position. You'd have to say Beasley was a bit disappointing this year, especially on defense, but he probably will be a 20-point-a-night guy in the league within a year or two.

--Lopez, Nets: True centers just don't win the Rookie of the Year Award, with the last being Shaquille O'Neal in 1993 (Emeka Okafor, Tim Duncan and Amare Stoudemire are not full-time centers). And even Lopez says he would vote for Rose. But Lopez probably has been the best value pick from the 2008 draft, as he was No. 10 overall and is averaging 13 points (shooting better than 53 percent) and 7.9 rebounds a game. Lopez will get some votes for Rookie of the Year. He won't win it but might finish second and will be one of the best centers in the East for some time.

--Westbrook, Thunder: A lot of people thought the then-Sonics reached when they took the UCLA guard No. 4 overall. But he has proven to be a future star and a nice piece along with Jeff Green and 2007 Rookie of the Year Kevin Durant on an up-and-coming team.

--Mayo, Grizzlies: He will end up as the top rookie scorer in this class, and he moved to the top of the rookie rankings on sites such as ESPN in February after averaging 19.7 ppg that month, but he has fallen back. Mayo is a points machine but must improve his shooting percentage and stop turning the ball over. But with Mayo and Gasol, Memphis has the best overall rookie class of 2008-09.

--Rose, Bulls: Folks, the award is a lock to be his unless somehow the Bulls stage a colossal collapse in the final week and miss the playoffs. The Chicago native is the only rookie playing truly meaningful minutes on a playoff team, and he leads all rookies in assists and is second to Mayo in scoring. Rose also has taken over as the leader of his team and is shooting pretty well from the field (47 percent). He still doesn't have three-point range, and coach Vinny Del Negro has taken him out for defensive purposes in a few games, but Rose will become the first Eastern Conference player to win Rookie of the Year since Okafor in 2004-05 and first Bull since Elton Brand in 1999-2000.

Food City 500 Odds and Predictions

Food City 500 Odds and Predictions

After one week off after his win at Atlanta Kurt Busch (and the "Blue Deuce") looks to continue his Sprint Cup domination as NASCAR heads to Thunder Valley, Busch's favorite track, this Sunday for the first of two races at Bristol Motor Speedway at 2 p.m. EST.

Bristol is racing's equivalent of the 12th man as the track itself is as much a story as the cars racing on it. BMS features two pit roads, which makes every pit stop an adventure for fans, drivers and pit crews. Qualifying is everything at Bristol so keep that in mind when investing on Sunday's race. This should give you a great indication who will likely race well and who will not.

BMS boasts 15-second laps and 30-degree banked turns. When the 0.5333-mile track was resurfaced in summer of 2007 they also added three extra feet so there are two grooves rather than one. However, now fans can experience more side-to-side racing rather than the colossal multi-car wipeouts that everyone loves at Bristol. At last year's Food City 500 42 of 43 cars finished on the lead lap.

How drivers fare at the Food City 500 is very important because the Top-35 teams in owners' points after the first five races of the season are guaranteed starting spots in the rest of the races for the season. If a driver is out of the Top 35 they'll need to get into each race on speed -- a shaky position for Mark Martin, who is currently on the bubble at No. 35. I look for drivers like Ryan Newman (32nd), Joey Logano (33rd) Scott Speed (37th) and Martin to really push is this Sunday to make sure they are in the Top 35 by the end of Sunday's race.

Who will win the Food City 500?

This is the first short-track race of the season and Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch go into this race with a decided advantage. Not only are they first and third, respectively, in the Sprint Cup points standings, they are also both tied with five wins each at BMS.

Kurt Busch won five spring races at Bristol in '02, '03, '04 and two August races in '03 and '04. Gordon has won spring races at Bristol in '95, '96, '97 and '98 while winning one August race in '02. But since the resurfacing neither of these two drivers has won.

"Concrete" Carl Edwards has dominated Bristol ever since the half-mile track was resurfaced. This Sunday Edwards will drive the car he used, and won, at Bristol last August. In his car "RK-596" Edwards started from the pole and ended up winning the race after leading for 84 laps.

If there is a downside for Edwards is that he is better racing at night than during the day at Bristol. Despite winning two of the last three races at Bristol he has never won the day race in spring. Last year Edwards finished 16th in this race, however, and I think this Sunday we will see the first back flip of the season.

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (6/1)

2009 Food City 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

How dominant has Kurt Busch been this season? Busch won his first race of the season at Atlanta two weeks ago and looks to continue the trend in "PRS-594" which he named "Hot Rod" after the win at AMS. "Hot Rod" debuted with a fifth-place finish at California and after winning two weeks ago the car's average finish is second. The No. 2 car has finished in the Top 10 five out of six races run this year. In his last three races Busch has started no worse than fourth on the grid and has put Penske Championship Racing back on the map. Busch is in third place in the standings, 46-points behind leader Jeff Gordon, but is in great position to use Bristol to take over the points lead with another strong short track finish. While Busch might not win this week it is a good bet that he finishes in the Top 3.

Pick! Kurt Busch, No. 2, (2/1)

2009 Food City 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

I actually don't like any of the long odds drivers on Sunday. I am looking to back a driver that will race competitively and perhaps take the lead for a few laps. I don't want my long-odds driver to flame out in the first 50 laps. I'm looking for some longevity as well as return for my investment. BMS is where Elliot Sadler won his first Sprint Cup race in 2001. If there was ever a track built to suit the No. 19 Best Buy Dodge it's Bristol. Although Sadler's finishes have not been great since the resurface (27th in '07 and 19th in '08), he started third on the grid in 2007 and finished second in 2005. Earlier this year at Daytona Sadler led for 24 laps, which eclipsed his 21-lap lead for the entire 2008 season. If Sadler can qualify well at Bristol don't count him out.

Pick! Elliot Sadler, No. 19, (30/1)

Odds to finish in the Top 3 - Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway March 22, 2009

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brian Vickers 9/1
Carl Edwards 9/5
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 5/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9/2
David Ragan 9/1
David Reutimann 30/1
David Stremme 22/1
Denny Hamlin 3/1
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 9/2
Jamie McMurray 9/1
Jeff Burton 5/1
Jeff Gordon 3/2
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Joey Logano 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 30/1
Kasey Kahne 5/1
Kevin Harvick 7/2
Kurt Busch 2/1
Kyle Busch 3/2
Mark Martin 15/2
Martin Truex Jr. 30/1
Matt Kenseth 7/2
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Ryan Newman 18/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed30/1
Tony Stewart 5/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1

Odds to win the Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway March 22, 2009

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 30/1
Carl Edwards 6/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann100/1
David Stremme 75/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 15/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Jeff Burton 18/1
Jeff Gordon 6/1
Jimmie Johnson 15/1
Joey Logano 75/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 60/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Kurt Busch 7/1
Kyle Busch 11/2
Mark Martin 25/1
Martin Truex Jr. 100/1
Matt Kenseth 14/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Tony Stewart 18/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1

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Sports Betting Money Management

How to keep yourself in the game

You are betting too much on each game! How can I say that without even knowing you? Because I've been doing this for a long time and have spent a lot of time understanding money management. 99% of sports bettors are betting too much. Think not? Think again.

Would you "bet" 25% of your entire retirement account on a single stock that had a 40% chance of going to $0 tomorrow? Of course not. Then why are so many sports bettors willing to risk 20%+ of their bankroll on a single game? It's easy to risk too much without knowing it. Please read on to see why...

A Simple Proposition - Would you take it?
If I offered you a 10% advantage in a game of chance (55% for you vs. 45%) for 500 bets, would you take that bet? Of course you would. Over the long haul (500 bets), the law of large numbers dictates that you would end up very close to 55% winners (275 winners vs. 225 losers). If we were betting $100 per bet, you'd be up about $5,000 in the end. Easy money.

Now let's say that I had one constraint. I told you you could start with no more than $500 (your bankroll) and if you ran out of money, you couldn't re-load. In essence, I was forcing you to bet 20% of your bankroll on each bet. Would you still take it? Think you could still take me for $5,000?

You had better not! You are virtually guaranteed to go bankrupt in this situation. Over the long haul, you will come close to 55% winners - it's a mathematical certainty. But, over the short term, you are guaranteed nothing. Strange streaks will happen. They always do. Over 500 bets, you could easily go 5 or 10 bets in a row (or even more) without winning. You could go 2-18 during a 500 bet session. If I forced you to bet 20% of your bankroll, you'd be crazy to do it because I would take your money like taking candy from a baby.

Yet, in sports betting, most bettors routinely do the equivalent of taking this bet! Almost every sports bettor bets too much per game relative to the size of their bankroll. They don't think twice about laying half of their entire remaining bankroll on one week's NFL games. The conclusion is this...

Why The House Wins
Based on my nearly two decades of sports betting experience, I view this as the most valuable "secret" there is:

THE HOUSE WINS BECAUSE YOU BET TOO MUCH PER GAME.

You run out of money before you have a chance to let the laws of large numbers work for you. They are banking on your lack of discipline. That's the main reason (not bad picking) that most sports bettors lose and why The House laughs to the bank.

Check out this story as an illustration...

A Tale of Two Sports Bettors

Risky John and Conservative Bob each started the season with $1000 - their bankroll. They both decided to play the same games throughout the season but they couldn't agree on how much to place on each game. John was more of a risk taker than Bob so John decided to bet about $200 per game (20% of his bankroll). Bob was more conservative and decided to risk about $50 per game (5% of his bankroll). Risky John figured that if he bet more, he could win more. And he was right. In week one, their picks went 4-2. John was up $360 while Conservative Bob only won $90. John was very pleased with himself.

Week 2 produced the exact same result. Risky John now had a $1720 bankroll while Conservative Bob was up to just $1180. John was very happy. He encouraged Bob to bet more but Bob wasn't so sure about that strategy. What if their luck started to turn? Risky John preferred to think positively. Besides, they were 8-4 and they knew what they were doing! The first two weeks had proved that.

But then came weeks 3 and 4 in which they went 2-4, 1-3. A bad run for sure, but not uncommon during a 16-week season. In fact, losing streaks are inevitable and guaranteed during a season. Conservative Bob lost $235 while Risky John gave back $940. John now had a lower bankroll than Bob! John was now down to $780. Risky John felt the losing couldn't possibly continue so he stuck with his bet size of $200 per game. The next two weeks they went 2-2 and 1-3.

Guess what? Risky John was now virtually wiped out - down to $280. Bob, meanwhile lost $360 on the terrible four week run but still had $820 left over. One of them was virtually out of money, the other had over 80% of his original bankroll left.

What happened next? Well, John quit. And, the unfortunate four-week run was followed by a great 3-week run where Conservative Bob went 10-3 and another 8 weeks of hitting a very respectable 56% on average. Bob ended up the season at over $1300 - an increase of 30% on his initial bankroll.

The morale of this story is obvious but very few sports bettors practice it. Don't overextend yourself:

Don't bet too much for your bankroll!

It is very tempting to put down a lot on each game, especially when you are winning. It is relatively boring to put down a little. But, you need to work within your bankroll, whatever that is. There will be bad streaks and good streaks in sports betting. It is inevitable if you do it for any extended period of time. Do yourself the favor of allowing yourself to "stay in the game." Don't miss out on that late-season run of luck because you are out of the game too early.

If your bankroll (amount you have set aside to bet with) is $10,000 and your average bet is more than $300, you are betting too much. If you have $1,000 to bet with and your average bet size is $30, you are betting too much. If your bankroll is $500 and you bet more than $15 per game, you are betting too much.

The silver lining in all of this is that YOU CONTROL THE SINGLE BIGGEST IMPEDIMENT TO LOSING. Let me say that again - regardless of how you pick games or whether someone helps you, you have the ability to erase the single biggest reason you may lose. All you need to do is practice safe money management.

So, how much you should you lay per game?
It depends, of course, on your bankroll (how much you are willing and able to lose over the course of the season). But there is a simple rule that applies regardless of whether you are a ten-dollar per game bettor or a one-thousand-dollar per game bettor: Bet around 2-3% of your bankroll and don't ever bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game on which you have even or close to even odds. On rare occassions where you are sure your chance of winning the game is extremely high (i.e. moneyline favoritees), a higher % of bankroll is sometimes warranted. But, for most bets in which you have even odds, 5% is your upper max. There are no locks. Let me repeat that - there is no such thing as a sure thing. Any bet can lose. Losing streaks can and do happen. Even in a season where you hit 60% overall, you'll have weeks where you hit 40%. It's an absolute certainty.

Can you make money with this strategy? Absolutely. In fact, its required to make money. Without this strategy, you will consistently lose regardless of how well you pick games. If you hit 54-58% (what you should expect), you will lose a lot of money (and maybe even deplete your entire bakroll) if you are betting more than 5% of your bankroll per game!

If you are winning and on a great roll, your bets can increase and you can win even more. How? You can simply use a percentage of your remaining bankroll. As your bankroll increases, your bet size increases. As your bankroll decreases, your bets decrease. A nice side benefit of this is that, by definition, you can never get wiped out. It is mathematically impossible to lose your entire bankroll if you are always betting a small percentage of it.

The bottom line: Remember, bet 2% - 5% of your bankroll on any given game (more often on the low end of that range). A good rule of thumb is about 3% per game. If you aren't as sure on a game, drop it to 1% or 2% and if you feel very good about a game, take it up to 4%. For those rare games that you absolutely love, go with 5% but never more.

I rate my picks as 1 to 5 units and I recommend you risk 1% of your bankroll per unit. So, you are always risking between 1% and 5% of your bankroll and now more. Most picks are 2-3 units.

SpreadConsultants. Start winning today!

Spreadconsultants is been there for a month now, but my handicapping-carreer is going way back. All sports - NCAAB, NHL, NBA, MLB, NFL, NCAAF, you name it, I cap them all, with great succes!

First of all, lets me say all the cappers on the site are very experienced specialists. They have all capped games for many years, putting many hours in this difficult process.

Dont get carried away by the scamdicappers on the Internet, most of the services dont have legit records. They only try to sell a product, they dont care if the 'Lock of the Year' wins or not. Nobody can hit the % they claim to hit, ridiculous 90% and higher. Even 80-70%, forget about it.

A professional sportsbettor is looking for 55-60% in a long run, thats plenty to make a lot of money. Thats why we started SpreadConsultants, to bring you the winners, so you can buy something for yourself or your loved ones. Maybe its an iPod, or that Rolex that you always wanted to have. Maybe its something bigger, say a car, or a gift for your wife or girlfriend. By following our cappers, you'll get it all, I promise. Just stick to the plan.

People are buying picks from us on SpreadConsultants, but Im going to post some thoughts on the different sports and matches.