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Understanding Sports Odds

Understanding Sports Odds

Here's the most simplistic but true statement I can possibly make about sports betting - understanding sports odds is a pretty important part of sports betting. You can be the best handicapper in the world, and you can pick winners with shocking regularity, but if you don't understand odds then you can't know if a bet is worth making, and you probably won't be a winner in the end. Fortunately, understanding sports odds isn't that tough once you figure it all out.

Before we look at the details of things there is one thing to keep in mind - your job as a sports bettor is to determine what you think the likelihood of something happening is and then to compare it to the odds of that event occurring. If the posted odds are better than your anticipated likelihood then you have a bet worth making, but if the odds, or the potential return on the bet, is less than the chances you give the bet of being successful then it is not worthwhile. Novice or unsuccessful bettors think that sports betting is all about picking winners, but that is only a small part of success.

There are a number of different ways that odds can be presented, but they all come down to the same thing. Sports books assign what they think is a fair price for a particular outcome. By fair price I mean that the books try to set a price that is attractive to bettors so that they will bet on it, but not so attractive that they will get too many bets and risk losing money. Books will adjust the odds once they have been set if they are attracting too much or too little action.
Sports odds can be presented in a number of different ways, but they all represent the same thing in one way or another - the amount you will win if you make a bet and are correct. They express them in different ways, but that's the meaning.

Fractional odds - These aren't the most common in sports betting, but they are the easiest to understand so we will start here. They are used in horse racing, so if you are familiar with betting on the ponies then you know fractional odds. Not surprisingly, they are expressed as a fraction. For example, odds of 4/1 mean that you would win four dollars if you bet one dollar and were correct. The odds can be less than even, too. Odds of 1/4 would mean that you would have to bet four dollars to win one dollar. With fractional odds it is also quite simple to figure out if a bet makes sense. If the odds are 4/1 and you think that something is likely to happen once in three tries then it is a very profitable bet. On the other hand, if it were likely to happen once every five tries then you would lose money in the long term if you bet it at 4/1.

Decimal odds - These aren't used in the United States very often, but they are seen in Canada, Europe and Australia. They can also be the most confusing at first. The easiest way to understand them is to start with fractional odds. To make a conversion you take the fraction, turn it into a decimal, and add one. That means that 4/1 fractional odds would convert to decimal odds of five, and 1/4 odds would become 1.25.

Money line odds - These are by far the most common form of odds in North America for sports betting. They are expressed as numbers greater than 100, and they can be either a positive or negative number. Each one is a little bit different.
When a money line is a positive number then the odds are the amount you would win if you were to bet $100 and were correct. For example, a money line of +200 would mean that you would make a profit of $200 if you bet $100 and were correct. That's also equivalent to fractional odds of 2/1 and decimal odds of 3.

A negative money line represents the amount that you would have to bet to win $100 if you were correct. For example, a -200 money line means you would win $100 if you bet $200 and won. It is also equivalent to fractional odds of 1/2 and decimal odds of 1.5.

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2009 NBA MVP Odds and Predictions

2009 NBA MVP Odds and Predictions

Right now there are two hot topics in the NBA: how is the playoff field going to shape up and what are some 2009 NBA MVP odds and who is going to bring home the Podoloff Cup.

(What is The Podoloff Cup, you ask? According to Useful Trivia, "The National Basketball Association established the Podoloff Cup, named for Maurice Podoloff, the league's first commissioner, as the its Most Valuable Player award in 1956. The winner was originally chosen by the NBA players. Since 1981, however, it has been based on a poll of professional basketball broadcasters and writers." Who knew?)

Right now it's tough to find any online sportsbooks that have 2009 NBA MVP odds posted. However, I think if they did post odds for the NBA MVP it would be one of the most highly bet props that they could have on the board. The debate is heated, and definitely calls into question the subjective measure of what an MVP is and what the phrase "Valuable" means.

There isn't really a wrong answer when you're breaking down the 2009 NBA MVP odds. Well, there isn't a wrong answer unless you have money on it. So I propose that all of the media bobbleheads that spend their time bickering about these issues need to put their money where their mouth is and lay some cheddar on which they think will make Podoloff proud.

So, in the spirit of that, here's a breakdown of the five players in the running for the Polodoff Cup as well as some 2009 NBA MVP odds and predictions:

Dwyane Wade:
Stat Line: 30 points, 7.7 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 2.3 steals, 1.4 blocks
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: +800
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: -125

Wade has been absolutely destroying the NBA this season. He, and yes I mean just he, has lead the Heat to a 36-29 record this season. This is amazing considering that the Heat only won 15 games last season. If you have had the pleasure of watching Wade this year you would have had the privilege of watching a man whom people thought was made of glass and on the downside of his career (ALREADY!) manhandle the rest of the league. The way that he controls a game from the opening tip to the final buzzer is unmatched. The Heat finished last season as the worst team in basketball and currently they sit in the fifth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Heat are an extremely tough matchup for almost any team in the league for one sole reason: Dwyane Wade.

Chris Paul
Stat line: 21.8 points, 11 assists, 5.4 rebounds, 2.4 steals
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: +1000
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: +850

With every passing game that Chris Paul plays the Atlanta Hawks feel like they are getting kicked in the balls over and over. Could you imagine having a Big Three of Paul, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith? That would be a fun team to watch. The Hornets are thankful that the Hawks passed and that they have gotten to watch Paul run one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA. If you decided to sit down and watch the NBA All-Star Game you would have witnessed skills that not many other players in the league possess. Paul's court vision and passing ability are in a league of their own. This man is by far the best point guard in the NBA. Over the past two years Paul has led the Hornets to a 78-65 ATS mark, which includes a 50-30 mark last season.

Kobe Bryant
Stat line: 28 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.3 steals
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: +500
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: +600

I think Kobe will finish fourth in the MVP race and at the All Star break he was posted at some online books as even money to win his second straight MVP award. Kobe will suffer from the Michael Jordan syndrome (Being that good every year, so people just look at it as an average season). Bryant's chances to become the MVP suffer due to the fact that the Lakers went to the championship last year and are on a similar path this season. Having an impressive supporting cast doesn't help Kobe either. Man it must suck to be considered one of the best players on the planet every single time he laces up his sneakers. Yeah, I would hate that.

LeBron James
Stat line: 28.6 points, 7.4 rebounds 7.2 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.2 blocks
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: +500
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: -150

Oh King James, King James. The poster child for the NBA is leading his Cavs on a fast track to the NBA Finals and he is earning a bigger paycheck with each passing game. Numerous teams in the NBA are completely re-tooling their rosters in hopes that they can land The King in 2010. In my opinion James is the runner-up for the MVP award this season. The addition of Mo Williams has placed the Cavs on the next level. It's difficult to look at LeBron James' numbers and suggest that he isn't the MVP when he has matched every one of his statistical categories from last year with the exception of scoring (and last year he should have won MVP). But this year there is just someone better. The Cavs have an improved supporting cast and LeBron, similar to Kobe, is just doing his thing. Poor LeBron; two years in a row now he could have won the MVP and might come "just that close." He was listed at -300 at the All Star break and was the runaway favorite to take the hardware.

Kevin Durant
Stat line: 25.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: Off
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: +5000

Nope. Sorry. Durant is an outstanding up-and-coming player as he is currently fourth in the race for the NBA scoring title. But come on; are people serious when they mention his name for MVP? The Oklahoma City Thunder are 18-48 on the year. You can't have an MVP from a team that is that bad. Plus, they haven't been that much worse without Durant while he has been out with an injury. Like I said, he is good, just not MVP good. Yet…

Running a March Madness Pool

Running a March Madness Pool

It's that time of year, where your NCAA Tournament office pool turns everyone that fills out a bracket into a fledgling college basketball expert.

I'm here to give you a "March Madness Pool for Dummies," so to speak. All you need to know about running a March Madness pool - and hopefully succeed in winning it. First off, you will need to print out a bracket for all of your office cohorts to fill out. No doubt, even your boss will want to be part of it - in what other month than March will your boss condone gambling??

OK, send out that e-mail and put copies of those brackets in all of those office mailboxes - getting customers to join your pool is the first crucial step in running a March Madness pool. If you are wondering how much to charge, it really depends on how many people you expect to lure. Most times, it's either $5 or $10, although in this economy, it's really up to you. But make sure you collect the entry fee, if there is one, before the tournament starts, or you will be chasing that money for a month. Some don't charge money and offer a prize. I know of one company that gave its winning employee the day off for winning the office pool. Another sold bracket spots to advertisers and gave each advertiser that got a team into the Final Four a discounted rate. So, really, the prizes are left to your creativity.

That creativity also goes with scoring, although you certainly want to make the point total rise in each round. The standard scoring goes like this (always assigning points to each game winner): one point for Round 1 winners, two for Round 2 winners, four in Round 3 (Sweet 16 winners), six for Elite Eight winners, eight for Final Four winners and 10 for the national champion. Again, this is really up to you, but you want to significantly reward whomever gets the national champ and not just someone who got lucky in picking upsets in the first round or two.
You also won't want to bother with the play-in game, as there's just not enough time to turn around everyone's bracket by that Tuesday game following Selection Sunday.

You will want to e-mail out, or put up in the mailroom, the point totals after every weekend so people know where they stand. And obviously make sure that the contestants keep a copy of their bracket for themselves. You also will want to put out an original e-mail saying what each contestant predicted for the Final Four and national champion. You might be pondering doing all this online as opposed to the old print version, but I guarantee that if you are doing this in a large setting that you will encounter at least a few people who aren't comfortable doing this on the Internet or who will do it wrong and then refuse to pay. I think you will find doing it the old-fashioned way is still pretty fun. But at worst, you could have people fill out the brackets on paper and then input those results into one of those online sites that will tabulate it for you.
As for strategy, I won't pretend to have all the answers despite having won a few pools in my day.

I will say that all four No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four just once since the field expanded to 64 in 1985 - and that was last year. There has been only one season where zero No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four - in 2006.

There almost always is an upset in one 5-12 game. Thirty-one times since 1985 a No. 12 has upset the No. 5 in the first round. But while there are plenty of upsets, it's still best to pick a No. 1 seed as your national champion. Since 1985, No. 1 seeds have won 14 championships.

World Baseball Classic

Here is a preview of Round 2 of the World Baseball Classic with updated odds to win the tournament.

Pool 1 in San Diego

Korea (winner Pool A) +800, Japan (runner-up Pool A) +190, Cuba (winner Pool B) +350, Mexico (runner-up Pool B) +2000

This group opens with Japan vs. Cuba Sunday in a rematch of the 2006 WBC final that was won by the Japanese, 10-6. The contrast in styles in this group is enormous. Japan and Korea lived up to their 'pitching and defense' reputations as evidenced by their 1-0 final, won by Korea in Pool A of Round 1. However, Cuba and Mexico combined to slug 23 home runs in the opening round of the Mexico City group that was won by Cuba.
Japan at +190 is the co-favorite with the United States to repeat as WBC champions. They'll have to get through a tough group that includes Cuba, a team that has been as impressive as any in the tournament thus far. The Cuban lineup showed big punch with 29 runs in its three wins and the pitching staff held up nicely. Outfielder Frederich Cepeda (.500, three home runs and six RBI), and Yoemis Cespedes (.538, two home runs and three RBI) were among the tournament's offensive stars in the first round.
Mexico is dismissed at +2000 after a mediocre 2-2 opening round. They pounded 12 home runs to top the tournament in the initial round, but were a wildly inconsistent club as a whole. It's also worth noting the big offensive numbers put up by Cuba and Mexico came in Mexico City's mile-high altitude.
The Koreans and Japanese proved to be pitching-rich once again in the first round. It should provide some interesting matchups with the big offensive numbers put up by the Latin American clubs.
Korea went 3-1 to win Pool A and all three victories were by shutout, including a 1-0 win over Japan to clinch the top seed. Pitcher Jung Keun Bong has given up just five hits over 8.1 shutout innings to pace the Koreans. The Beijing Olympic gold medalist continues to exceed expectations in international competition, but Mexico seems more than capable of taking them out in the opener. That makes their 8-1 odds to win the whole thing seem devoid of value.
Mexico scored 30 runs in their two wins and gave up 33 runs in their two losses. That's a large swing that illustrates their inconsistency. Still, they certainly seem to have the ability and +2000 could provide fair value.

Pool 2 in Miami

Puerto Rico (winner Pool D) +700, Netherlands (runner-up Pool D) +5000, Venezuela (winner Pool C) +700, USA (runner-up Pool C) +190

The Netherlands got here with a pair of unthinkable wins over the Dominican Republic. The Cinderella story figures to end here. Aside from Cuba, Puerto Rico may have been the most impressive team of the opening round. They beat the Netherlands twice and blanked Panama, 7-0, to win pool D. Puerto Rico is deep and versatile. The pitching staff allowed just one run over 27 innings while striking out 28 and walking just eight in the first round. Future Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez seemed to have set the tone in the opener, going 4-for-4 with two home runs for Puerto Rico and they look like the value of the tournament at 7-1.
The U.S. beat Canada and split two games with Venezuela to advance to the second round. They will be without manager Davey Johnson, who left the team for personal reasons, for the opener vs. Puerto Rico. The U.S. middle relief has been a disappointment to this point and will need shoring up if the Americans hope to play up to their short price.
Venezuela proved it can score plenty of runs in the first round, banging out eight home runs and a .347 team batting average, but the starting pitching still seems too suspect to offer any support at 7-1.

NHL Betting: The Week's Biggest Stories

NHL Betting: The Week's Biggest Stories

The NHL trade deadline has passed, and it was a strange one. The trade action was very slow to get started, and though there were eventually almost as many deals as in recent years there weren't nearly as many big names with new addresses. Early-round draft picks were also more valued now than some years, as they didn't move much at all. Several teams got better now or into the future, but four did better than the rest.

Trade Deadline Winners

Calgary Flames - The big winners. They are securely leading their division, but they have been hit with key injuries that have significantly affected their scoring depth - Daymond Langkow, Rene Bourque, and Todd Bertuzzi. They also lacked defensive depth. They were able to address both, and give up nothing particularly meaningful in immediate terms in exchange. The big jewel was Olli Jokinen from Phoenix. The Flames have coveted the European forward for years, and the team has never really had a true offensive center to pair with Jarome Iginla. Jokinen paired with Iginla and Mike Cammaleri, who is having a very good offensive year, and the chemistry was immediate - Jokinen had two goals in his first period. To shore up the defense, they re-acquired Jordan Leopold. Leopold started his career in Calgary, so he will be comfortable in his new surroundings. He's a puck-moving defenseman who can be trusted in his own zone. When he was previously in town he had excellent chemistry with Roby Regehr, and that should be rekindled. These two moves make the team much better, and came at the cost of just one regular contributor - the speedy but inconsistent Matthew Lombardi.

Despite the improvements, Calgary still has a glaring need that they are helpless to fix. Goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff is very good, and it's a good thing - he has every single win for the team. The team seems to take a day off when Kipper is given a break. That won't be a factor in the playoffs unless the Finn gets injured. If that happens then the team's goose is cooked.

Boston Bruins - The Bruins are the class of the East, so they didn't need to do anything major. What they did do, though, just makes them deeper and more competitive. Forward Mark Recchi is in his twilight, but he has been around forever, and he adds a seasoned and respected veteran voice to a relatively young dressing room. Steve Montador isn't a big name, but he's a determined, capable defenseman who doesn't make a lot of mistakes and can be trusted in pressure situations. Both players are good additions.

New York Rangers - The Rangers desperately need to stop the freefall - they started out strong, but now just cling to a playoff spot by one point. The big story of the trade deadline for them was what they were unable to do - shed a big contract that weighs them down like an anchor - like the contracts of Scott Gomez or Chris Drury. They still made some nice moves, though. Nik Antropov is a huge, gritty forward, and that's something the Rangers are desperately lacking. They also picked up Derek Morris. The defenseman wasn't nearly as good in Phoenix as he was in Colorado or Calgary, but he adds power play depth and defensive intensity to the Rangers.

Pittsburgh Penguins - The Pens made their biggest impact before the trade when they traded Ray Whitney for Chris Kunitz. They made a significant deal on deadline day, though, when they picked up winger Bill Guerin. He's 38 and has seen better days, but he's a natural playmaker who may be able to play well with Sidney Crosby. Even if he ends up somewhere else, he's a tough, dependable veteran who will be a positive influence for a young team that has a tough fight ahead of them just to make the playoffs.

Standing Still

Several contenders were notable by their inaction. For the most part, the lack of moves made sense.

Detroit Red Wings - Detroit doesn't have much cap space, but they also don't have many flaws. The only potential need was a goaltender, and it was hard to find a guy who was affordable and was sure to be better than the two guys they have now. He certainly wasn't going to come without a big cost, and this team has been as successful as they are in large part because they stick to the plan and don't splurge on flashy talent unless it fits into their needs. Detroit was the favorite to win it all before the trade deadline, and they still are.

Vancouver Canucks - Vancouver is trying to chase down Calgary. They didn't change anything at the deadline, but they were playing so well at the time that they didn't need to, or want to risk the current chemistry. They really made their big splash before Christmas when they acquired Mats Sundin. You could argue that Vancouver could have been well served making a trade or two because they have more looming unrestricted free agents than they could possibly re-sign, and they could have at least got something in exchange. That's risky, though, especially when a team is a reasonable contender.

New Jersey Devils - A deadline deal can give a legitimate contender a boost. The Devils got their boost a week before the deadline when Martin Brodeur returned to action after a long injury absence. They are happy offensively and solid defensively. The only move they might have made is moving goalie Scott Clemmensen before they lose him as a free agent, but he's a very nice security blanket in case Brodeur suffers another setback. That security is more valuable than whatever they could have gotten for him.

MLB Season Win Totals Predictions

MLB Season Win Totals Predictions

Now that we are in the midst of spring training and we are starting to think about baseball again, most sportsbooks have posted their season win totals for major league baseball. These are by far my favorite season-long props. Not only are they a lot of fun and occasionally soft and profitable, but thinking about them also forces you to start thinking about baseball in a real way again so that you are ready for the season when it rolls around. As always, there are all sorts of the numbers that were interesting to me as I looked around and thought about them. Here's a look:

Arizona Diamondbacks - 86.5 - I keep hearing that the D-Backs are neck-and-neck with the Dodgers in the NL West, but I just don't buy it. I like Brandon Webb a lot, obviously, but there isn't another starter in the picture that fills me with warmth and trust. I also see at least as many questions and issues with the lineup as I do things to get excited about. I am enthusiastically on the under here.

Cincinnati Reds - 78.5 - There is a lot I like about this team. They have a very solid rotation with a couple of spots just oozing potential, and they have some young bats that could become something special. That being said, I think that this number is overly optimistic. I hope I am wrong for their sake, but if I had to take a side I wouldn't hesitate to go under.

Cleveland Indians - 85.5 - I'm not going to be this much of a pessimist the whole way through, but I'd go under again here. I don't think they have the depth they need to compete, and I don't trust their rotation at all. Fausto Carmona needs to prove he can bounce back, and Cliff Lee surely can't be the same super-human freak he was last year. They may be able to compete in the AL Central, but that isn't exactly going to be a strong conference this year.

Colorado Rockies - 77.5 - In my eyes this is the worst number on the board. With Jeff Francis on the shelf this team has very suspect pitching, Todd Helton is ancient, and their best power hitter is wearing different colors this year. I don't see much to like here, and I really don't see how they would win anywhere close to 78 games.

Florida Marlins - 75.5 - I don't have a particularly strong reason, but I would lean to the over here. Florida always finds way to get the most out of young talent, and given that this seems like a very reasonable number. Their rotation lacks star power, but it is young and full of potential. If one or two of those youngsters discovers their game then this team could flirt with .500.

Kansas City Royals - 75.5 - People seem to be jumping on this bandwagon, so I might as well join them and go over. The front end of the rotation - Zack Grienke and Gil Meche - is very good, and the pieces behind them could fall into place nicely. Young players like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler should take steps forward, and they are well supported with the addition of guys like Coco Crisp. I also really like manager Trey Hillman. It might be a lot to ask given how bad they have been for so long, but I could easily imagine this as a .500 team.

L.A. Dodgers - 84.5 - Given that I already determined that I don't like the Diamondbacks much, and that the Padres and Rockies are terrible, there are a lot of wins to be had in the NL West. The Dodgers, in my mind, are going to get more than their share. Their pitching is competent. More importantly, though, they have a good lineup. Manny Ramirez does remarkable things to protect hitters and provide opportunities for his teammates. His firepower in unmatched in the division, and I could easily see them win 90 games. That makes the over a nice play.

New York Mets - 89.5 - I was surprised by this number. They won 89 games last year, and that was with a late collapse. They have a bullpen that has gone from barely average to probably the best in the league, and they have a rotation that should be better with age. The power is still there, and they are solid defensively. That all adds up to a comfortable over in my eyes.

New York Yankees - 95.5 - The heavy action seems to be on the under here, so you can have the over at a nice discount. Call me contrary, but I'll go against the crowd. I don't expect Toronto and Tampa Bay to be as good as last year, Baltimore is terrible, and Boston didn't keep up with New York's improvements. That should lead to more division wins. They have the best rotation they have had in a long while, and the depth is ridiculous - even without A-Rod for a couple of months. The over seems to be worth a shot.

Philadelphia Phillies - 88.5 - I am not optimistic about the Phillies as they try to defend their title. For starters, it's extremely hard for a team to come back after a title and win as many games as they did the year before. The Phillies kept most of their lineup intact, but they did very little to get better. The teams around them, most notably the Mets and Braves, did more. I am not entirely counting the Phillies out, but I would lean to the under and a win total of something like 85-87 wins.

College Basketball Betting: Big Ten Tournament Preview

College Basketball Betting: Big Ten Tournament Preview

Michigan State is the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament for the first time since 1999, and as one would expect the Spartans are also the Bodog odds-on favorite at 6/5 to win it.

MSU beat Purdue on Sunday to reach 15 wins in Big Ten play for the first time since the 1998-99 season, when the Spartans reached the Final Four for the first time under Tom Izzo. And State has the Big Ten Player of the Year in Kalin Lucas, Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year in Travis Walton, Big Ten Coach of the Year in Izzo and is on a five-game winning streak, so everything appears to be in place.

The Big Ten Tournament is being held in Indianapolis this year, so you might think of that as an advantage for a team like No. 3 seed Purdue (fellow in-state school Indiana is no real threat), which is the Bodog second-favorite at 5/2. But while the Boilermakers were just 3-7 ATS away from home this year, Michigan State had just one conference road loss - that coming at Purdue.

Michigan State will look to capture its first tournament title since 2000 and become the first team to win the Big Ten tourney three times. The No. 1 seed has won the tournament only four times overall. The Spartans open play Friday against the Minnesota-Northwestern winner.

The real question is if Michigan State can somehow grab a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament should the Spartans cruise through the Big Ten. There might be two spots up for grabs, with North Carolina and the Big East winner (assuming it's Connecticut, Louisville or Pittsburgh) certain to get No. 1 seeds. That leaves a second or even third Big East team, the possible Big 12 winner, Memphis and the Spartans fighting it out for the final two top seeds.

In MSU's favor is its nation-leading 12 wins against RPI top-50 teams.

"I think it's some what we do, some what other people don't do," Izzo said. "I think what we've done already deserves consideration for those top one or two seeds."

OHIO STATE: The team got some good news last week when star Evan Turner said he would return for his junior year, but the Buckeyes won't be getting back David Lighty this year. The junior captain broke his foot in December and had attempted to practice recently in hopes of helping in the postseason, but he decided it wasn't worth it to use up a year of eligibility with so few games remaining. He frankly wasn't going to be cleared for full participation anyways.

OSU's win over Northwestern on Sunday probably locked up an NCAA at-large bid for the Buckeyes, as it gave them 20 wins and a three-way tie for fourth in the Big Ten. But the Buckeyes, as the No. 5 Big Ten Tournament seed, have a very tough opener against Wisconsin on Friday in a matchup of the past two Big Ten tourney champs. Under Coach Thad Matta, OSU is just 3-7 against the Badgers. And a No. 5 seed has never played in the Big Ten final, nor has a No. 7. Every other seed has.

NORTHWESTERN: That Sunday loss to Ohio State seriously damaged the Wildcats' at-large hopes, but a win Thursday over Minnesota and then an upset of Michigan State might do it - and remember that Northwestern ended MSU's 28-game home winning streak this year. Northwestern, which started the Big Ten season 0-4 but has six wins over opponents in the top 50 of the RPI, has never reached the NCAA Tournament - every other member of a BCS conference has.

Big Ten Tournament schedule (all times Eastern)

THURSDAY
No. 8 Minnesota vs. No. 9 Northwestern, Noon (Big Ten Network
No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Iowa, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 Indiana, 5 p.m. (ESPN2)

FRIDAY
No. 1 Michigan State vs. 8/9 winner, Noon a.m. (ESPN)
No. 4 Wisconsin vs No. 5 Ohio State, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN)
No. 2 Illinois vs. 7/10 winner, 6:30 p.m. (BTN)
No. 3 Purdue vs. 6/11 winner, 9 p.m. (BTN)

SATURDAY
First semifinal, 1:40 p.m. (CBS)
Second semifinal, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

SUNDAY
Title game, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)