Food City 500 Odds and Predictions

Food City 500 Odds and Predictions

After one week off after his win at Atlanta Kurt Busch (and the "Blue Deuce") looks to continue his Sprint Cup domination as NASCAR heads to Thunder Valley, Busch's favorite track, this Sunday for the first of two races at Bristol Motor Speedway at 2 p.m. EST.

Bristol is racing's equivalent of the 12th man as the track itself is as much a story as the cars racing on it. BMS features two pit roads, which makes every pit stop an adventure for fans, drivers and pit crews. Qualifying is everything at Bristol so keep that in mind when investing on Sunday's race. This should give you a great indication who will likely race well and who will not.

BMS boasts 15-second laps and 30-degree banked turns. When the 0.5333-mile track was resurfaced in summer of 2007 they also added three extra feet so there are two grooves rather than one. However, now fans can experience more side-to-side racing rather than the colossal multi-car wipeouts that everyone loves at Bristol. At last year's Food City 500 42 of 43 cars finished on the lead lap.

How drivers fare at the Food City 500 is very important because the Top-35 teams in owners' points after the first five races of the season are guaranteed starting spots in the rest of the races for the season. If a driver is out of the Top 35 they'll need to get into each race on speed -- a shaky position for Mark Martin, who is currently on the bubble at No. 35. I look for drivers like Ryan Newman (32nd), Joey Logano (33rd) Scott Speed (37th) and Martin to really push is this Sunday to make sure they are in the Top 35 by the end of Sunday's race.

Who will win the Food City 500?

This is the first short-track race of the season and Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch go into this race with a decided advantage. Not only are they first and third, respectively, in the Sprint Cup points standings, they are also both tied with five wins each at BMS.

Kurt Busch won five spring races at Bristol in '02, '03, '04 and two August races in '03 and '04. Gordon has won spring races at Bristol in '95, '96, '97 and '98 while winning one August race in '02. But since the resurfacing neither of these two drivers has won.

"Concrete" Carl Edwards has dominated Bristol ever since the half-mile track was resurfaced. This Sunday Edwards will drive the car he used, and won, at Bristol last August. In his car "RK-596" Edwards started from the pole and ended up winning the race after leading for 84 laps.

If there is a downside for Edwards is that he is better racing at night than during the day at Bristol. Despite winning two of the last three races at Bristol he has never won the day race in spring. Last year Edwards finished 16th in this race, however, and I think this Sunday we will see the first back flip of the season.

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (6/1)

2009 Food City 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

How dominant has Kurt Busch been this season? Busch won his first race of the season at Atlanta two weeks ago and looks to continue the trend in "PRS-594" which he named "Hot Rod" after the win at AMS. "Hot Rod" debuted with a fifth-place finish at California and after winning two weeks ago the car's average finish is second. The No. 2 car has finished in the Top 10 five out of six races run this year. In his last three races Busch has started no worse than fourth on the grid and has put Penske Championship Racing back on the map. Busch is in third place in the standings, 46-points behind leader Jeff Gordon, but is in great position to use Bristol to take over the points lead with another strong short track finish. While Busch might not win this week it is a good bet that he finishes in the Top 3.

Pick! Kurt Busch, No. 2, (2/1)

2009 Food City 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

I actually don't like any of the long odds drivers on Sunday. I am looking to back a driver that will race competitively and perhaps take the lead for a few laps. I don't want my long-odds driver to flame out in the first 50 laps. I'm looking for some longevity as well as return for my investment. BMS is where Elliot Sadler won his first Sprint Cup race in 2001. If there was ever a track built to suit the No. 19 Best Buy Dodge it's Bristol. Although Sadler's finishes have not been great since the resurface (27th in '07 and 19th in '08), he started third on the grid in 2007 and finished second in 2005. Earlier this year at Daytona Sadler led for 24 laps, which eclipsed his 21-lap lead for the entire 2008 season. If Sadler can qualify well at Bristol don't count him out.

Pick! Elliot Sadler, No. 19, (30/1)

Odds to finish in the Top 3 - Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway March 22, 2009

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brian Vickers 9/1
Carl Edwards 9/5
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 5/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9/2
David Ragan 9/1
David Reutimann 30/1
David Stremme 22/1
Denny Hamlin 3/1
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 9/2
Jamie McMurray 9/1
Jeff Burton 5/1
Jeff Gordon 3/2
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Joey Logano 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 30/1
Kasey Kahne 5/1
Kevin Harvick 7/2
Kurt Busch 2/1
Kyle Busch 3/2
Mark Martin 15/2
Martin Truex Jr. 30/1
Matt Kenseth 7/2
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Ryan Newman 18/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed30/1
Tony Stewart 5/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1

Odds to win the Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway March 22, 2009

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 30/1
Carl Edwards 6/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann100/1
David Stremme 75/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 15/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Jeff Burton 18/1
Jeff Gordon 6/1
Jimmie Johnson 15/1
Joey Logano 75/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 60/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Kurt Busch 7/1
Kyle Busch 11/2
Mark Martin 25/1
Martin Truex Jr. 100/1
Matt Kenseth 14/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Tony Stewart 18/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1

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