MonsterBuck with a huge card for Thursday

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Today MonsterBuck has 8 winners, a huge card. In every sport he picked the best matchups, with some blowout winners in the NBA and NHL. He's doing really great! If you're into sportsbetting, you know its very hard, if not impossible to hit 60% in the long run. But MB is doing it, every day. If you're not into sportsbetting, let me make it clear, he's just making money. If you bet $10, $20 a game, you still had made a nice profit, more than $2000! Be sure to check the plays out at our website, and be a winner too.

Baseball Betting System: Pythagorean Expectations

Baseball Betting System: Pythagorean Expectations

Pythagoras is a famous Greek philosopher (can someone name me a non-mythical famous Greek who wasn't some kind of philosopher?) and mathematician. He is most famous for his triangle theory but he turned out to be a pretty bitchin' dude and he believed that numbers were the foundation of life and the ultimate reality. He believed that through math "everything could be predicted and measured in rhythmic patterns or cycles." In other words, he was kind of a latter day Bill James.

So I suppose its not a surprise to learn that Bill James, a baseball writer, historian and statistician who basically invented the field of sabermetrics in baseball, concocted a formula for measuring the expected number of wins for any given Major League Baseball team. This metric attempts to quantify how "lucky" a particular team is by comparing the number of games a team "should" have won (based on the formula) to the amount of games that team actually won. James dubbed his formula the Pythagorean Expectation because of its similarity to Pythagoras' theorem.

Here is the actual formula:

Basically, James simplifies the game into its most basic components - runs scored and runs allowed - and used that more to explain how well or how poorly teams performed. At first the correlation between James' formula and the actual winning percentage of teams was a mere experiment. But other statisticians and probability theorists (whom I presume are also fans of America's Former Pastime) were able to determine that the formula can give a probability for future wins.

I know, I know: reading about this stuff is enough to make your eyes roll back into your head. But this year I factored in the Pythagorean Expectations into my MLB futures bets and I'm very interested to see the results for this baseball betting system. If they are anything close to what I've observed from the last several years then I think we may have found a significant moneymaker for years to come.

The summation of this formula can actually be found right on the MLB.com website. In the league standings you have the option of viewing the "X-Wins", which is the measure of a team's Pythagorean Expectations, or their "expected wins."

Using that number I went back to track the teams with the biggest discrepancies from year to year, dating back to 2001. If a team had an actual win total of 89 and an X-Wins total of just 84 then it's safe to say that our team overachieved by five wins (+5). The reverse is also true. If a team finished the year with 72 wins but had an X-Wins total of 79 then that club underachieved by seven wins (-7).

Arbitrarily, I determined that 4.0 would be the threshold for significance for determining if a team over- or underachieved. And since 2001 a total of 76 teams, out of a possible 240, either over- or underachieved according to our threshold. So what I did was to group the teams that overachieved and the ones that underachieved and to compare each individual club's results the following year. However, while 4.0 was the initial threshold I found that if you bumped that up 5.0 you actual returned more significant wagering results.

Teams that were +5 or higher according to the Pythagorean Expectations - that means that the difference between their Actual Wins and their X-Wins were 5.0 or higher - actually had fewer wins the following season in 22 of the 32 instances. And it makes sense because if a team overachieves one season then it's most likely going to experience a natural statistical regression and come up short the following season.

Our underachievers - teams with a -5 or below Expectation - also went the opposite way and they ended up winning more total games in 23 of the 35 occurrences over the last eight years.

Now, using the formula and my generic threshold significance of +/-4 I may have found a consistent moneymaker when considering futures bets. I started by comparing the 2005 results to the 2006 season wins totals released by Las Vegas Sports Consultants. I wanted to see how the teams that overachieved and underachieved in 2005 did against the 2006 Vegas wins totals, and I then repeated the exercise for each of the following years. The results were eye opening.

Teams that we have deemed "overachievers", that is teams with a differential of +4 or higher went just 6-9-1 (40 percent) against the Vegas wins totals the following year. If we bump our threshold up to +5 we actually lost a few percentage points as those teams were just 5-7-1 (41.6 percent) against the Vegas wins. And placing a futures bet against these overachievers the year after turned a profit all three years.

The results were even better when you bet on teams to bounce back after an "underachieving" year of -4 or less. Those teams went an outstanding 11-7 (61.1 percent) in the last three years against the Vegas wins totals. They would have had an overall losing season in 2007, going just 3-4, but a 5-2 year in 2006 and a 3-1 year in 2008 would have made this system an overall winner.

And the results for the underachievers get even better if you raise the threshold to -5 or less. Those teams went a sensational 9-2 against the Vegas wins totals over the last three years and produced a profit each individual season.

Overall, betting against ('under') the season wins totals of our overachieving teams (+4 or higher) and betting on ('over') the season wins totals of our underachieving teams (-4 or worse) would have gone 20-13-1 against Vegas season wins totals over the last three years. And if we narrow our underachievers to -5 or worse that raises our record to 18-8-1 and gives us a sensational 69.2 winning percentage!

This year we have only two qualifiers that were overachievers last year. Tampa Bay's Actual Wins total was 97 last year their Pythagorean Expectations (or X-Wins) was just 91. That gives them a +6 and means that we should bet the 'under' against their season wins total this year, which is currently 89.0. Houston (+9) also fits that category and their 2009 season wins total is currently at 74.5.

Those two teams - Tampa Bay and Houston - represent the smallest number of "overachievers" to bet on in the last four years.

Our pool of underachievers is a bit broader. Toronto (-7), Atlanta (-7), Baltimore (-5) and San Diego (-5) should all be teams that we play 'over' against their season wins totals. Also, Cleveland (-4) and Detroit (-4) fit in the original threshold and are worth a look even though they don't pass the -5 filter.

You really don't need to fully understand the math behind this. You don't need to understand Pythagorean philosophy, Bill James' sabermetrics, or anything else. All you have to understand for this baseball betting system is this: had you bet $1,000 on each of these season win totals you would have been up a cool $9,200 and all it would take is the MLB.com site, a calculator, and about 15 minutes of work.

If you like to win money..

Hey readers and fellow sports bettors,

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Good luck on your action!

MonsterBuck got winners for you again!

MonsterBuck from SpreadConsultants, the most honest solid sports handicapper on the internet, has a couple of easy blowout winners for you today! He placed bets on the NBA, MLB and NHL, and is sure his pockets will be stuffed with cash after tonights games. Want to win too?

Sportsbetting is easy to beat, if you know the most important info. MonsterBuck shares this information with you, and making you a true 'bookie-crusher'!

Good luck on your action.

Sweet Sixteen Predictions

Sweet Sixteen Predictions

With the Sweet 16 just a couple of days away, here's my attempt to offer some Sweet 16 predictions on which teams are the best bets:

Thursday

Connecticut (-7) vs. Purdue - Strong defense tends to thrive in the tournament, and both of these teams have top-rate defenses - in the Top 5 by defensive efficiency. The difference here is going to be the pace of play. UConn plays a far more up-tempo style that capitalizes on their size advantage over virtually everyone they play. Purdue will need to slow things down and set the tone if they want to have a chance. As much as I like the Big Ten, I don't think the Boilermakers can pull it off. It's a near-certainty that the Huskies will have a significant rebounding edge. Purdue has struggled against fast, hot guards this year, and UConn's backcourt is on fire right now. I expect this one to be tough and fun, but I think in the end Purdue just won't have enough to measure up.

Pitt (-7) vs. Xavier - The Musketeers beat Wisconsin in the second round largely by lulling the Badgers to sleep in the second half. Xavier is very solid defensively, and they set the tempo as well as any team in the country. They can also score pretty well, though not as well as the Panthers. Pitt is bigger and stronger, and they use that size to assert themselves offensively with ruthless efficiency. That means that this game will be a battle of wills. I probably favor the Panthers, but Xavier is playing very well, they have the experience of being in this round just last year, and they have nothing to lose. My hunch is that this line gives the Panthers too much credit.

Memphis (-4.5) vs. Missouri - Perhaps more than any other game, this one comes down to one player - Memphis freshman point guard Tyreke Evans. Memphis has a lethal combination - a relentless, ball moving offense, and the most efficient defense in the country. They haven't lost since Evans moved to the point, but he has only been okay so far during the tournament. If he returns to his impressive late-season form then the Tigers should be able to roll here much like they did against Maryland. Even if he doesn't, Missouri has perhaps the smallest margin of error of any remaining team - they need to play as close to flawless as they can or they will be vulnerable against a better team. I expect the Tigers to roar.

Duke (-2.5) vs. Villanova - Maybe I am drawn to Villanova just because I dislike Duke so very much. Or maybe I just like the matchup for the Wildcats. Duke is as much of a one-dimensional perimeter team as there is. If teams can contain and control that then the Blue Devils are likely in trouble. Villanova can probably do that. Their guards use speed and pressure to disrupt opponents and take away shots. That speed will also let them exploit Duke on the break like Texas did in the last round. Duke also doesn't have an answer for Villanova's big man, Dante Cunningham. Villanova has the advantages and the momentum, and I give them a solid edge.

Friday

Louisville (-9) vs. Arizona - I'll keep this one brief - Louisville was my pick to win it all before the tournament, and they still are. That being said, I'm not convinced that this line makes sense. The Wildcats have a trio of talented players, an explosive offense, a defense that is playing well of late, and momentum. Louisville is the better team and should win, but it could very easily be by less than nine points.

Oklahoma (-1) vs. Syracuse - Oklahoma beat Michigan by 10 points, but the game was closer than the score. Michigan was penalized by the refs far more than the Sooners, had absolutely no answer for Blake Griffin, and went long stretches displaying ridiculous offensive futility, and still were in it until late in the second half. Syracuse has more size, more speed, better shooting, and much more momentum than Michigan. I see them getting through this one and keeping their hot streak alive.

Michigan State (-1.5) vs. Kansas - I have a hard time respecting Kansas right now. They deserve credit for getting where they are considering what they lost. Still, it's hard to argue that they aren't overachieving. They benefited from a relatively weak conference to get their seeding, and don't have the experience or seasoning to go further in my eyes. That's not the same for Michigan State. They are deep, tough, seasoned, and focused on playing in the Final Four at home. The Kansas repeat bid ends here.

North Carolina (-8.5) vs. Gonzaga - Every time I look at this one I change my mind. Since before the tournament started I have had a feeling that UNC is vulnerable and poised to fall. That hasn't changed. Sometimes I think that Gonzaga is the team to end the Tar Heels' run. When they play their best they certainly could. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs also have the ability to disappoint and underwhelm when the pressure is on. To pick Gonzaga to win, or even to cover, you have to take a leap of faith that they can perform at their best. Given the number of points they are given, I'm willing to bet that they will. UNC is vulnerable in two key ways - they don't play great defense when pressed to do so, and they get frustrated when teams are able to get back defensively and limit the effectiveness of the North Carolina fast break. Gonzaga is offensively potent and defensively sound, and they have the potential to manage both feats.

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From one of our clients.

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Bet on Potential NBA Finals Matchups

Bet on Potential NBA Finals Matchups

You can bet on which teams you think are going to win the two conferences in the NBA, or which team is going to win it all, but for some people those just don't offer a big enough payoff to be interesting. People who have a taste for more action might want to look at the NBA Finals matchup props available now on Sportsbook.com. This prop allows you to bet on both teams at once - an effective parlay of the two conference winners. Here's a look at some that I find interesting, and some that just don't offer enough value to be worthwhile. We'll look at them as they are listed - by the Eastern Conference teams involved:

Cleveland Cavaliers vs:

On paper Cleveland doesn't necessarily have the depth to go all the way. They are a better Cleveland team than the last version that went to the Finals, though, and LeBron James gets better in every game. Mo Williams has been one of the bigger surprises in the league all year, and consistently wills his team to wins. Cleveland has the best record in the East, and clearly have what it takes to win it all.

L.A. Lakers - +200 - This is the second favorite on the whole board, and probably the one that most casual fans would like to see. It's hard to justify this as a worthwhile investment at this price, though - too many things could go wrong.

San Antonio Spurs - +900 - You'd never have guessed this one given how poorly the Spurs played to start the year. They are still so colorless that they are virtually invisible, but they have the experience and the depth, and they have shown that they can beat the Lakers this year. This price might not be great, but it's a bargain compared to the Lakers.

Houston Rockets - +2500 - The Rockets are hot, going 8-2 in the last 10 to move into third place in the conference. Still, they are only the fifth highest price in the conference here. That could indicate some value. They are finally reasonably healthy, and they have no shortage of wily veteran talent.

Utah Jazz - +1500 - If the Rockets are hot then the Jazz are burning up - they haven't lost in 12 games. A good point guard is so important to a playoff run, and Deron Williams is just tearing opponents up this year.

Boston Celtics vs:

The Celtics have the edge in experience over the Cavs and the Magic, and they have beat Cleveland twice in three tries this year. The biggest concern has to be health, though. Kevin Garnett has missed a lot of action recently. The Celtics have held their own without him now, but they couldn't do the same thing in the playoffs. The Celtics are favored over the Cavs, and that is reflected in the prices for the matchups, but the combination of Boston's age and injury problems makes me a bit uneasy about the prices associated with them.

L.A. Lakers - +175 - This rematch is seen as the most likely outcome by bettors. Boston probably isn't hoping for it, though - the Lakers have won both meetings this year. One thing to mention, and here is as good a place as any, is that the Lakers have been struggling lately, dropping three of their last five - all on the road. Every team goes through bad blips, and Boston had a whopper of a downturn earlier in the year, but Lakers obviously need to solve that which has been plaguing them recently.

The rest of the numbers are, as you would expect, just slightly lower than those for the Cavs.

Orlando Magic vs:

Dwight Howard is an incredibly compelling player, and the Magic are hanging out right behind the big two up front. I'd obviously be more excited about the long term prospects if Jameer Nelson were healthy and active, but it has been impressive how well the team has done without their spark plug in the back court.

The Magic are 1-2 against Boston and 1-0 against the Cavs, so they clearly are good enough to give either team a solid contest. If you believe in the Magic then you can get some comparative value here. The Lakers, for example, are at +900, the Spurs at +3500, the Jazz at +5500, and the Rockets at +9000. Any of those would give your bankroll a nice boost.

All the rest

It's reasonably hard to imagine any team beyond those big three sneaking through to the finals. A team in the East would likely have to beat at least two of the big three, and that would seem, from this perspective, to be almost impossible - especially in the NBA where the cream has a tendency to rise to the top over the long term. That doesn't mean that there isn't room for dreamers, though. For comparison, the Lakers can be had at +11000 when paired with the much-improved Bulls, +4000 for the finally decent Hawks, +5000 for the 76ers, +3000 combined with Dwyane Wade and his Heat, and +3500 with the Pistons. If you really don't like your money you could always bet that the pairing will be the Raptors and the Lakers. It won't happen, of course, but it would pay a sweet 300/1 if it did. The longest shot on the board pairs the Raptors with either the Suns or the Mavericks at the astronomical price of 5200/1.