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Potential NCAA Tournament Upsets

Potential NCAA Tournament Upsets

The best part of the early rounds of the NCAA are the upsets, and the best part of filling out your bracket is deciding which games you think are potential heartbreakers for the higher seeded teams. Here are eight potential upsets that wouldn't shock me this year:

Midwest

No. 12 Arizona over No. 5 Utah - The Wildcats are a controversial inclusion in the tournament, but they are better than their record indicates. They have a very talented trio in Wise, Hill and Budinger, and they are explosive offensively. Utah is a solid team, but they have fallen into slumps from time to time. Utah might be slightly too high at No. 5, and Arizona is more talented than a lot of 12 seeds.

No. 10 USC over No. 7 Boston College - The Eagles can be a tough team - they beat UNC, Duke and Florida State this year. Unfortunately, they are wildly inconsistent - they lost to Harvard, and they dropped five of their last nine. USC knows all about underachieving, too, but they got hot at the right time and won their conference tournament to get an unlikely tournament bid. If they revert to their regular season form then they will lose here. If they keep playing like they did in their tourney, though, then this might not be the only game they win.

West

No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 Marquette - The Golden Eagles had a great start to the season, but they had the bad misfortune of losing the very valuable Dominic James. Without him the team has struggled badly down the stretch and are certainly vulnerable. The Aggies are a hard team to judge - they won 30 games and the WAC title, but they really haven't played many teams of note. If they are half as good as their record then they could pull the upset.

No. 10 Maryland over No. 7 Cal - I frankly don't even think that this one would be much of an upset. The Pac-10 didn't have a great year, so Cal isn't particularly battle-tested, and they lost four of their last six. Maryland had struggles of their own at times, but they also beat some very good teams - Michigan State, UNC and so on. They have a good chance of thriving under the pressure here.

East

No. 12 Wisconsin over No. 5 Florida State - This seed matchup always seems to be the site of the big upsets, and this could be yet another. The Badgers didn't get nearly enough respect from the selection committee - they were fifth in the Big Ten, yet they were seeded two spots below two teams behind them in the standings. Wisconsin didn't live up to expectations, but they still play smothering defense and can be dangerous. Florida State is coming off a huge conference tournament run, but they may struggle with focus and maintaining their momentum.

No. 13 Portland State over No. 4 Xavier - The Vikings are the Big Sky champions, and they could be dangerous. They haven't played a lot of top competition, but they do have an impressive win at Gonzaga to their credit. Xavier is a team I like a lot, but they can be frustrating. They have a bad habit of overlooking teams that they should be able to beat with ease - three of their six losses came against decidedly inferior opponents. They rely heavily on a freshman point guard, and he might have slight problems with the intensity of this tournament. That could be enough for Portland State.

South

No. 11 Temple over No. 6 Arizona State - The Sun Devils have one of the most impressive players out there in James Harden. He deserves more credit and attention than he gets, and a big tournament performance could help him get that. They will have to be at their best to get past Temple, though. The Owls won a deep and tough A-10 conference tournament, and they had a couple of solid non-conference wins. They are a feisty team that won't be afraid to stand up to the Sun Devils.

No. 10 Michigan over No. 7 Clemson - Michigan is a frustrating team to be a fan of. When they play their game they are as good as any squad out there - ask Duke or UCLA. If they don't play with focus and determination, though, then they can be incredibly lousy. They have been able to lift their game up when it matters, though, and they could do it again here. Their 1-3-1 defense can also give opponents fits if it is working well. Clemson had a great non-conference run, but they didn't play too many teams of note. In conference play they had a win over Duke but they lost to the rest of their top opponents. They are not a bad team, but they are a vulnerable one.

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NCAA Tournament Fact vs. Myth

NCAA Tournament Fact vs. Myth

The March Madness is in full swing. The following will examine a couple of key questions many of you have about the upcoming tournament and we are confident this discussion will also help you fill out your bracket and be the king of your office pool.

Fact vs. Myth

Fact vs. Myth No. 1: Oklahoma has the best player in Blake Griffin and thus they are a threat to win it all?

Answer: Myth. Despite having the best player in Blake Griffin, the Sooners have a hurdle that they will not be able to overcome, Jeff Capel cannot coach. Everything Blake Griffin gets is on his own and not because of some great offensive attack devised by Capel. In fact, the Coach K "family tree" has not been successful as evidenced below:

Tommy Amaker (Seton Hall, Michigan, Harvard)
Bob Bender (Washington)
Mike Brey (Notre Dame)
Neil Dougherty (Texas Christian)
Quin Snyder (Missouri, NBDL Austin Toros)
Jeff Capel III (Virginia Commonwealth, Oklahoma)
David Henderson (Delaware)
Johnny Dawkins (Stanford University) />

This certainly does not line-up with the Coach Rick Pitino tree. The Sooners have a nice draw but I don't expect them to make it to the Elite Eight, despite being a No. 2 seed.

Fact vs. Myth No. 2: The Big Ten set basketball back 20 years this season and all of the teams will be knocked out this weekend?

Answer: Myth. Granted the Big Ten was hard to watch in 2009 and the first team to reach 50 points won the majority of games, but familiarity played a major role in this. Every coach in the conference has a veteran this season and opposing teams are very familiar with each coach's style of play. The same cannot be said for teams outside the Midwest and expect the scoring of Big Ten teams to increase and this may set up some great totals plays on the over. I expect Purdue and Michigan State to make it to the second weekend and four of the seven Big Ten teams will win their first round games. The officiating and unfamiliarity will help all of these squads. Watch out for Purdue, as this team has the best talent and is starting to get healthy.

Fact vs. Myth No. 3: Location is important when filling out your bracket?

Answer: Fact. You have noticed that there have not been as many upsets in recent years and the chalk has prevailed through the first weekend. Last year, the Top 8 seeds made it through the first weekend and it would not surprise me if that trend happened again this year. I do not see many strong teams in the 7-10 games that would have a chance to knockout a No. 2 seed in round two. Teams benefiting from location this season are Villanova, Louisville, North Carolina, and Duke. Expect all of these teams to advance to the second week of the tournament.

Fact vs. Myth No. 5: Teams need stars in order to advance deep into the tournament.

Answer: Fact. The tournament is a different breed and oftentimes games get into half-court battles and, in order to score points, you need players that can create their own shots. Does Stephen Curry ring a bell from 2008? Teams that come to mind this season are North Carolina, Florida State, Arizona State and Pittsburgh. Teams that don't have a star are Wisconsin, Illinois, West Virginia, and Texas A&M.

Fact vs. Myth No. 6: The tournament should be expanded to eliminate the bubble teams.

Answer: Myth. Regardless of how many teams you put in, there will always be some team that feels they got jobbed. Do we really need all 16 teams from the Big East in the NCAA Tournament? Does DePaul deserve to be in after going 0-16 in the Big East? The tournament is fine the way it is now and I like the fact that each conference gets at least one team into the field. Nobody left out this season (Penn State, Auburn, or St. Mary's) could win six straight games in the tournament. The only thing I would eliminate is the play-in game, (yes that is what it is called) because the loser does not get to experience the real tournament atmosphere. Coaches are in favor of expansion because it may help save their jobs and, much like the bowls, mediocrity can seem a lot better with a victory late in the season.

There you have it, so who do I think will advance to the Motor City: Michigan State, UCONN, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh. Who will cut down the nets: UNC.

Running a March Madness Pool

Running a March Madness Pool

It's that time of year, where your NCAA Tournament office pool turns everyone that fills out a bracket into a fledgling college basketball expert.

I'm here to give you a "March Madness Pool for Dummies," so to speak. All you need to know about running a March Madness pool - and hopefully succeed in winning it. First off, you will need to print out a bracket for all of your office cohorts to fill out. No doubt, even your boss will want to be part of it - in what other month than March will your boss condone gambling??

OK, send out that e-mail and put copies of those brackets in all of those office mailboxes - getting customers to join your pool is the first crucial step in running a March Madness pool. If you are wondering how much to charge, it really depends on how many people you expect to lure. Most times, it's either $5 or $10, although in this economy, it's really up to you. But make sure you collect the entry fee, if there is one, before the tournament starts, or you will be chasing that money for a month. Some don't charge money and offer a prize. I know of one company that gave its winning employee the day off for winning the office pool. Another sold bracket spots to advertisers and gave each advertiser that got a team into the Final Four a discounted rate. So, really, the prizes are left to your creativity.

That creativity also goes with scoring, although you certainly want to make the point total rise in each round. The standard scoring goes like this (always assigning points to each game winner): one point for Round 1 winners, two for Round 2 winners, four in Round 3 (Sweet 16 winners), six for Elite Eight winners, eight for Final Four winners and 10 for the national champion. Again, this is really up to you, but you want to significantly reward whomever gets the national champ and not just someone who got lucky in picking upsets in the first round or two.
You also won't want to bother with the play-in game, as there's just not enough time to turn around everyone's bracket by that Tuesday game following Selection Sunday.

You will want to e-mail out, or put up in the mailroom, the point totals after every weekend so people know where they stand. And obviously make sure that the contestants keep a copy of their bracket for themselves. You also will want to put out an original e-mail saying what each contestant predicted for the Final Four and national champion. You might be pondering doing all this online as opposed to the old print version, but I guarantee that if you are doing this in a large setting that you will encounter at least a few people who aren't comfortable doing this on the Internet or who will do it wrong and then refuse to pay. I think you will find doing it the old-fashioned way is still pretty fun. But at worst, you could have people fill out the brackets on paper and then input those results into one of those online sites that will tabulate it for you.
As for strategy, I won't pretend to have all the answers despite having won a few pools in my day.

I will say that all four No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four just once since the field expanded to 64 in 1985 - and that was last year. There has been only one season where zero No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four - in 2006.

There almost always is an upset in one 5-12 game. Thirty-one times since 1985 a No. 12 has upset the No. 5 in the first round. But while there are plenty of upsets, it's still best to pick a No. 1 seed as your national champion. Since 1985, No. 1 seeds have won 14 championships.