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Food City 500 Odds and PredictionsAfter one week off after his win at Atlanta Kurt Busch (and the "Blue Deuce") looks to continue his Sprint Cup domination as NASCAR heads to Thunder Valley, Busch's favorite track, this Sunday for the first of two races at Bristol Motor Speedway at 2 p.m. EST.
Bristol is racing's equivalent of the 12th man as the track itself is as much a story as the cars racing on it. BMS features two pit roads, which makes every pit stop an adventure for fans, drivers and pit crews. Qualifying is everything at Bristol so keep that in mind when investing on Sunday's race. This should give you a great indication who will likely race well and who will not.
BMS boasts 15-second laps and 30-degree banked turns. When the 0.5333-mile track was resurfaced in summer of 2007 they also added three extra feet so there are two grooves rather than one. However, now fans can experience more side-to-side racing rather than the colossal multi-car wipeouts that everyone loves at Bristol. At last year's Food City 500 42 of 43 cars finished on the lead lap.
How drivers fare at the Food City 500 is very important because the Top-35 teams in owners' points after the first five races of the season are guaranteed starting spots in the rest of the races for the season. If a driver is out of the Top 35 they'll need to get into each race on speed -- a shaky position for Mark Martin, who is currently on the bubble at No. 35. I look for drivers like Ryan Newman (32nd), Joey Logano (33rd) Scott Speed (37th) and Martin to really push is this Sunday to make sure they are in the Top 35 by the end of Sunday's race.
Who will win the Food City 500?
This is the first short-track race of the season and Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch go into this race with a decided advantage. Not only are they first and third, respectively, in the Sprint Cup points standings, they are also both tied with five wins each at BMS.
Kurt Busch won five spring races at Bristol in '02, '03, '04 and two August races in '03 and '04. Gordon has won spring races at Bristol in '95, '96, '97 and '98 while winning one August race in '02. But since the resurfacing neither of these two drivers has won.
"Concrete" Carl Edwards has dominated Bristol ever since the half-mile track was resurfaced. This Sunday Edwards will drive the car he used, and won, at Bristol last August. In his car "RK-596" Edwards started from the pole and ended up winning the race after leading for 84 laps.
If there is a downside for Edwards is that he is better racing at night than during the day at Bristol. Despite winning two of the last three races at Bristol he has never won the day race in spring. Last year Edwards finished 16th in this race, however, and I think this Sunday we will see the first back flip of the season.
Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (6/1)
2009 Food City 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
How dominant has Kurt Busch been this season? Busch won his first race of the season at Atlanta two weeks ago and looks to continue the trend in "PRS-594" which he named "Hot Rod" after the win at AMS. "Hot Rod" debuted with a fifth-place finish at California and after winning two weeks ago the car's average finish is second. The No. 2 car has finished in the Top 10 five out of six races run this year. In his last three races Busch has started no worse than fourth on the grid and has put Penske Championship Racing back on the map. Busch is in third place in the standings, 46-points behind leader Jeff Gordon, but is in great position to use Bristol to take over the points lead with another strong short track finish. While Busch might not win this week it is a good bet that he finishes in the Top 3.
Pick! Kurt Busch, No. 2, (2/1)
2009 Food City 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
I actually don't like any of the long odds drivers on Sunday. I am looking to back a driver that will race competitively and perhaps take the lead for a few laps. I don't want my long-odds driver to flame out in the first 50 laps. I'm looking for some longevity as well as return for my investment. BMS is where Elliot Sadler won his first Sprint Cup race in 2001. If there was ever a track built to suit the No. 19 Best Buy Dodge it's Bristol. Although Sadler's finishes have not been great since the resurface (27th in '07 and 19th in '08), he started third on the grid in 2007 and finished second in 2005. Earlier this year at Daytona Sadler led for 24 laps, which eclipsed his 21-lap lead for the entire 2008 season. If Sadler can qualify well at Bristol don't count him out.
Pick! Elliot Sadler, No. 19, (30/1)
Odds to finish in the Top 3 - Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway March 22, 2009
A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brian Vickers 9/1
Carl Edwards 9/5
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 5/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9/2
David Ragan 9/1
David Reutimann 30/1
David Stremme 22/1
Denny Hamlin 3/1
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 9/2
Jamie McMurray 9/1
Jeff Burton 5/1
Jeff Gordon 3/2
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Joey Logano 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 30/1
Kasey Kahne 5/1
Kevin Harvick 7/2
Kurt Busch 2/1
Kyle Busch 3/2
Mark Martin 15/2
Martin Truex Jr. 30/1
Matt Kenseth 7/2
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Ryan Newman 18/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed30/1
Tony Stewart 5/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1
Odds to win the Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway March 22, 2009
A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 30/1
Carl Edwards 6/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann100/1
David Stremme 75/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 15/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Jeff Burton 18/1
Jeff Gordon 6/1
Jimmie Johnson 15/1
Joey Logano 75/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 60/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Kurt Busch 7/1
Kyle Busch 11/2
Mark Martin 25/1
Martin Truex Jr. 100/1
Matt Kenseth 14/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Tony Stewart 18/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1
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Sports betting tip #1 - Money ManagementThis is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting sports and possibly the most neglected. The first key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose. If you are going to bet on sports, it is important to set aside a certain portion of your money for betting and to stick with that bankroll, win or lose. Winning money on sports is not a sprint. If you bet your whole bankroll on one game and lose, you will be more likely to try and chase your losses. If you spread your bankroll among several smaller bets, you are more likely to make a profit in the long run if you do the proper homework. Remember, there are no locks in this business and any team can lose on any given night. And on the subject of chasing: Don't do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day. If you didn't like the game before you lost your money, why would you like it after your losses? Chasing bets is a losing proposition almost every time. If you are on a winning streak, increase the amount of your bets. Wins and losses often come in streaks, and it can be profitable to ride out a hot streak.
Sports betting tip #2 - Shopping for Numbers
The second most important aspect of betting on sports is shopping for the best number. There will be more discrepancy in the numbers on different sports at different sports books. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. On college sports and daily events like the NBA, you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines. When you are betting your hard earned money, getting the best line is a top priority. And since the lines the bookmakers release are increasingly strong, the difference between a point or two is usually the difference between a win or a loss.
Sports betting tip #3 - Never Gamble While under the Influence
There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling. Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn't otherwise make. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind. If you have had too much to drink, it is in your best interest to stay away from the betting window.
As with any industry there are the good and the bad. We must confess that our industry has gotten somewhat of a black eye. The handicapping business has been flooded with 1-900-rip-offs, "boiler room" sales offices and those recorded free pick phones that get your phone number so that one of their high pressure salesman can call back and hound you on a daily basis. These services are often skilled in marketing but know little when in comes to handicapping. This is not in your best interest.
It's very important that whether you use our service, another service, or handicap on your own that you do your homework and always remember that this is a marathon and not a sprint. The same principle that apply to any business, also applies to sports betting and in our 30+ years of experience we can only guarantee the following four statements: There are no 'Locks,' there are no 'get-rich-quick' schemes, any game can lose in almost unimaginable ways, and unfortunately you will have your losing days.
We hope these sports betting tips will help out but most importantly be patient, have some fun and enjoy the experience. Best of Luck - SpreadConsultants
Yani_Gogoleak has been on an incredible tear! 32-8-4 80% over the last 4 days! He hit an easy cover in the Bowling Green / Creighton game last night in NCAAB, went an astounding 3-0 in the NBA and went an incredible 7-1-1 in MLB Preseason! Get on board for the Thursday plays!Antonio C 5-2 +10.10 units the last 2 days to start NCAAB tournament play. PLUS $2,062 since inception!
The best part of the early rounds of the NCAA are the upsets, and the best part of filling out your bracket is deciding which games you think are potential heartbreakers for the higher seeded teams. Here are eight potential upsets that wouldn't shock me this year:
Midwest
No. 12 Arizona over No. 5 Utah - The Wildcats are a controversial inclusion in the tournament, but they are better than their record indicates. They have a very talented trio in Wise, Hill and Budinger, and they are explosive offensively. Utah is a solid team, but they have fallen into slumps from time to time. Utah might be slightly too high at No. 5, and Arizona is more talented than a lot of 12 seeds.
No. 10 USC over No. 7 Boston College - The Eagles can be a tough team - they beat UNC, Duke and Florida State this year. Unfortunately, they are wildly inconsistent - they lost to Harvard, and they dropped five of their last nine. USC knows all about underachieving, too, but they got hot at the right time and won their conference tournament to get an unlikely tournament bid. If they revert to their regular season form then they will lose here. If they keep playing like they did in their tourney, though, then this might not be the only game they win.
West
No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 Marquette - The Golden Eagles had a great start to the season, but they had the bad misfortune of losing the very valuable Dominic James. Without him the team has struggled badly down the stretch and are certainly vulnerable. The Aggies are a hard team to judge - they won 30 games and the WAC title, but they really haven't played many teams of note. If they are half as good as their record then they could pull the upset.
No. 10 Maryland over No. 7 Cal - I frankly don't even think that this one would be much of an upset. The Pac-10 didn't have a great year, so Cal isn't particularly battle-tested, and they lost four of their last six. Maryland had struggles of their own at times, but they also beat some very good teams - Michigan State, UNC and so on. They have a good chance of thriving under the pressure here.
East
No. 12 Wisconsin over No. 5 Florida State - This seed matchup always seems to be the site of the big upsets, and this could be yet another. The Badgers didn't get nearly enough respect from the selection committee - they were fifth in the Big Ten, yet they were seeded two spots below two teams behind them in the standings. Wisconsin didn't live up to expectations, but they still play smothering defense and can be dangerous. Florida State is coming off a huge conference tournament run, but they may struggle with focus and maintaining their momentum.
No. 13 Portland State over No. 4 Xavier - The Vikings are the Big Sky champions, and they could be dangerous. They haven't played a lot of top competition, but they do have an impressive win at Gonzaga to their credit. Xavier is a team I like a lot, but they can be frustrating. They have a bad habit of overlooking teams that they should be able to beat with ease - three of their six losses came against decidedly inferior opponents. They rely heavily on a freshman point guard, and he might have slight problems with the intensity of this tournament. That could be enough for Portland State.
South
No. 11 Temple over No. 6 Arizona State - The Sun Devils have one of the most impressive players out there in James Harden. He deserves more credit and attention than he gets, and a big tournament performance could help him get that. They will have to be at their best to get past Temple, though. The Owls won a deep and tough A-10 conference tournament, and they had a couple of solid non-conference wins. They are a feisty team that won't be afraid to stand up to the Sun Devils.
No. 10 Michigan over No. 7 Clemson - Michigan is a frustrating team to be a fan of. When they play their game they are as good as any squad out there - ask Duke or UCLA. If they don't play with focus and determination, though, then they can be incredibly lousy. They have been able to lift their game up when it matters, though, and they could do it again here. Their 1-3-1 defense can also give opponents fits if it is working well. Clemson had a great non-conference run, but they didn't play too many teams of note. In conference play they had a win over Duke but they lost to the rest of their top opponents. They are not a bad team, but they are a vulnerable one.
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