NBA Rookie of the Year Odds and Betting Predictions

NBA Rookie of the Year Odds and Betting Predictions

With the NBA's regular season set to conclude on April 15, it's time to start thinking about the Association's 2008-09 awards. You can check back at Doc's soon for MVP, Coach of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year stories, etc., but we'll start with the Eddie Gottlieb Trophy, which goes to the NBA's Rookie of the Year. The trophy, if you were wondering, is named in honor of the former Philadelphia Warriors coach and owner. I didn't know that …

BetEd lists seven current candidates for NBA Rookie of the Year with odds: Derrick Rose (-1200), O.J. Mayo (+150), Russell Westbrook (+350), Brook Lopez (+2000), Michael Beasley (+5000), Greg Oden (+9000) and Marc Gasol (+9000).

Let's breakdown each guy with some NBA Rookie of the Year predictions, from the longshots to the favorite, although this race isn't much of one behind Rose.

--Oden, Trail Blazers: Despite the fact he appears to be in his mid-40s, and was drafted in 2007, Oden is indeed a rookie. But he has had what only can be considered a disappointing year, mostly due to injuries. The former Ohio State big man has missed 21 games with various injuries, which no doubt is causing Blazer fans to think he might be the second-coming of Sam Bowie and that the team should have taken Kevin Durant instead. Maybe he will still evolve into a mini-Bill Russell, but he has to stay on the floor. At least he will be one of the three rookies on this list to reach the postseason, but he hasn't played more than 30 minutes in a game since January.

--Gasol, Grizzlies: If Gasol wasn't in Memphis and wasn't from Spain, he might have a lot more run as a top rookie candidate and certainly better odds. He might well be the most surprising rookie of this class, as Pau's brother is averaging 11.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. His emergence makes the trade of his brother to the Lakers a little less-lopsided - Marc Gasol was one of the pieces that went back to Memphis, and definitely the best one now.

--Beasley, Heat: The former Kansas State star can put up 20 points as easily as allow 20 to the opposing power forward. And averaging just over five rebounds a game won't cut it at that position. You'd have to say Beasley was a bit disappointing this year, especially on defense, but he probably will be a 20-point-a-night guy in the league within a year or two.

--Lopez, Nets: True centers just don't win the Rookie of the Year Award, with the last being Shaquille O'Neal in 1993 (Emeka Okafor, Tim Duncan and Amare Stoudemire are not full-time centers). And even Lopez says he would vote for Rose. But Lopez probably has been the best value pick from the 2008 draft, as he was No. 10 overall and is averaging 13 points (shooting better than 53 percent) and 7.9 rebounds a game. Lopez will get some votes for Rookie of the Year. He won't win it but might finish second and will be one of the best centers in the East for some time.

--Westbrook, Thunder: A lot of people thought the then-Sonics reached when they took the UCLA guard No. 4 overall. But he has proven to be a future star and a nice piece along with Jeff Green and 2007 Rookie of the Year Kevin Durant on an up-and-coming team.

--Mayo, Grizzlies: He will end up as the top rookie scorer in this class, and he moved to the top of the rookie rankings on sites such as ESPN in February after averaging 19.7 ppg that month, but he has fallen back. Mayo is a points machine but must improve his shooting percentage and stop turning the ball over. But with Mayo and Gasol, Memphis has the best overall rookie class of 2008-09.

--Rose, Bulls: Folks, the award is a lock to be his unless somehow the Bulls stage a colossal collapse in the final week and miss the playoffs. The Chicago native is the only rookie playing truly meaningful minutes on a playoff team, and he leads all rookies in assists and is second to Mayo in scoring. Rose also has taken over as the leader of his team and is shooting pretty well from the field (47 percent). He still doesn't have three-point range, and coach Vinny Del Negro has taken him out for defensive purposes in a few games, but Rose will become the first Eastern Conference player to win Rookie of the Year since Okafor in 2004-05 and first Bull since Elton Brand in 1999-2000.

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Afternoon delight: MLB opening day early game previews

Make sure you know the details on the horses you back today. The weather has already delayed one home opener and it could be a factor in a few others. Here's a little cheat sheet that will hopefully help with today's wagers.

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (+150, 7.5): Johan Santana vs. Aaron Harang
The Mets start the season with a six-game road trip before playing San Diego on April 15 in their first game at the new ballpark. They'll look to ace pitcher Johan Santana (16-7, 2.53 ERA) to help them open the year with a victory.

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-145, 8.5): Jamie Shields vs. Josh Beckett
The Rays and the Red Sox are scheduled to open the 2009 season at Fenway on Monday afternoon, though rain is in the forecast and could push Game 1 back to an off-day Tuesday.

Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers (+115, 10): Cliff Lee vs. Kevin Millwood
The Indians and their ace pitcher hope to erase memories of a miserable spring training, when Cliff Lee was 0-3 with a 12.46 ERA in six starts and the ball club won only 12 of 35 games.

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-165, 7.5): Aaron Cook vs. Brandon Webb
Arizona manager Bob Melvin's opening day lineup will be a bit different than his normal everyday look. He will start Eric Byrnes in right field in place of Justin Upton and shift Chad Tracy from first base to third, with Tony Clark getting the start at first. Upton and regular third baseman Mark Reynolds will sit, but only for one day, Melvin said.

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (+175, 8.5): CC Sabathia vs. Jeremy Guthrie
Armed with baseball's steepest payroll, the Yankees realize the importance of beginning the season on a roll. New York went 14-15 last April and never really recovered in its first season under manager Joe Girardi.

Washington Nationals at Florida Marlins (-160, 8): John Lannan vs. Ricky Nolasco
The Nationals could have a hard time getting off on the right foot with Ricky Nolasco taking the mound for the Marlins on Monday. The right-hander went 5-2 with a 2.80 ERA over his last 12 starts in 2008 to finish 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA.

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-185, 8): Paul Malhomn vs. Adam Wainwright Although Wainwright was the Cardinals' opening day starter last season, the game was rained out. There is snow in the forecast for St. Louis on Monday. Wainwright went 11-3 with a 3.20 ERA in 20 starts in 2008, and was 5-0 with a 3.35 ERA in his final seven starts after missing 2 1/2 months with a sprained right middle finger.

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Baseball Betting System: Pythagorean Expectations

Baseball Betting System: Pythagorean Expectations

Pythagoras is a famous Greek philosopher (can someone name me a non-mythical famous Greek who wasn't some kind of philosopher?) and mathematician. He is most famous for his triangle theory but he turned out to be a pretty bitchin' dude and he believed that numbers were the foundation of life and the ultimate reality. He believed that through math "everything could be predicted and measured in rhythmic patterns or cycles." In other words, he was kind of a latter day Bill James.

So I suppose its not a surprise to learn that Bill James, a baseball writer, historian and statistician who basically invented the field of sabermetrics in baseball, concocted a formula for measuring the expected number of wins for any given Major League Baseball team. This metric attempts to quantify how "lucky" a particular team is by comparing the number of games a team "should" have won (based on the formula) to the amount of games that team actually won. James dubbed his formula the Pythagorean Expectation because of its similarity to Pythagoras' theorem.

Here is the actual formula:

Basically, James simplifies the game into its most basic components - runs scored and runs allowed - and used that more to explain how well or how poorly teams performed. At first the correlation between James' formula and the actual winning percentage of teams was a mere experiment. But other statisticians and probability theorists (whom I presume are also fans of America's Former Pastime) were able to determine that the formula can give a probability for future wins.

I know, I know: reading about this stuff is enough to make your eyes roll back into your head. But this year I factored in the Pythagorean Expectations into my MLB futures bets and I'm very interested to see the results for this baseball betting system. If they are anything close to what I've observed from the last several years then I think we may have found a significant moneymaker for years to come.

The summation of this formula can actually be found right on the MLB.com website. In the league standings you have the option of viewing the "X-Wins", which is the measure of a team's Pythagorean Expectations, or their "expected wins."

Using that number I went back to track the teams with the biggest discrepancies from year to year, dating back to 2001. If a team had an actual win total of 89 and an X-Wins total of just 84 then it's safe to say that our team overachieved by five wins (+5). The reverse is also true. If a team finished the year with 72 wins but had an X-Wins total of 79 then that club underachieved by seven wins (-7).

Arbitrarily, I determined that 4.0 would be the threshold for significance for determining if a team over- or underachieved. And since 2001 a total of 76 teams, out of a possible 240, either over- or underachieved according to our threshold. So what I did was to group the teams that overachieved and the ones that underachieved and to compare each individual club's results the following year. However, while 4.0 was the initial threshold I found that if you bumped that up 5.0 you actual returned more significant wagering results.

Teams that were +5 or higher according to the Pythagorean Expectations - that means that the difference between their Actual Wins and their X-Wins were 5.0 or higher - actually had fewer wins the following season in 22 of the 32 instances. And it makes sense because if a team overachieves one season then it's most likely going to experience a natural statistical regression and come up short the following season.

Our underachievers - teams with a -5 or below Expectation - also went the opposite way and they ended up winning more total games in 23 of the 35 occurrences over the last eight years.

Now, using the formula and my generic threshold significance of +/-4 I may have found a consistent moneymaker when considering futures bets. I started by comparing the 2005 results to the 2006 season wins totals released by Las Vegas Sports Consultants. I wanted to see how the teams that overachieved and underachieved in 2005 did against the 2006 Vegas wins totals, and I then repeated the exercise for each of the following years. The results were eye opening.

Teams that we have deemed "overachievers", that is teams with a differential of +4 or higher went just 6-9-1 (40 percent) against the Vegas wins totals the following year. If we bump our threshold up to +5 we actually lost a few percentage points as those teams were just 5-7-1 (41.6 percent) against the Vegas wins. And placing a futures bet against these overachievers the year after turned a profit all three years.

The results were even better when you bet on teams to bounce back after an "underachieving" year of -4 or less. Those teams went an outstanding 11-7 (61.1 percent) in the last three years against the Vegas wins totals. They would have had an overall losing season in 2007, going just 3-4, but a 5-2 year in 2006 and a 3-1 year in 2008 would have made this system an overall winner.

And the results for the underachievers get even better if you raise the threshold to -5 or less. Those teams went a sensational 9-2 against the Vegas wins totals over the last three years and produced a profit each individual season.

Overall, betting against ('under') the season wins totals of our overachieving teams (+4 or higher) and betting on ('over') the season wins totals of our underachieving teams (-4 or worse) would have gone 20-13-1 against Vegas season wins totals over the last three years. And if we narrow our underachievers to -5 or worse that raises our record to 18-8-1 and gives us a sensational 69.2 winning percentage!

This year we have only two qualifiers that were overachievers last year. Tampa Bay's Actual Wins total was 97 last year their Pythagorean Expectations (or X-Wins) was just 91. That gives them a +6 and means that we should bet the 'under' against their season wins total this year, which is currently 89.0. Houston (+9) also fits that category and their 2009 season wins total is currently at 74.5.

Those two teams - Tampa Bay and Houston - represent the smallest number of "overachievers" to bet on in the last four years.

Our pool of underachievers is a bit broader. Toronto (-7), Atlanta (-7), Baltimore (-5) and San Diego (-5) should all be teams that we play 'over' against their season wins totals. Also, Cleveland (-4) and Detroit (-4) fit in the original threshold and are worth a look even though they don't pass the -5 filter.

You really don't need to fully understand the math behind this. You don't need to understand Pythagorean philosophy, Bill James' sabermetrics, or anything else. All you have to understand for this baseball betting system is this: had you bet $1,000 on each of these season win totals you would have been up a cool $9,200 and all it would take is the MLB.com site, a calculator, and about 15 minutes of work.