NBA Rookie of the Year Odds and Betting Predictions

NBA Rookie of the Year Odds and Betting Predictions

With the NBA's regular season set to conclude on April 15, it's time to start thinking about the Association's 2008-09 awards. You can check back at Doc's soon for MVP, Coach of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year stories, etc., but we'll start with the Eddie Gottlieb Trophy, which goes to the NBA's Rookie of the Year. The trophy, if you were wondering, is named in honor of the former Philadelphia Warriors coach and owner. I didn't know that …

BetEd lists seven current candidates for NBA Rookie of the Year with odds: Derrick Rose (-1200), O.J. Mayo (+150), Russell Westbrook (+350), Brook Lopez (+2000), Michael Beasley (+5000), Greg Oden (+9000) and Marc Gasol (+9000).

Let's breakdown each guy with some NBA Rookie of the Year predictions, from the longshots to the favorite, although this race isn't much of one behind Rose.

--Oden, Trail Blazers: Despite the fact he appears to be in his mid-40s, and was drafted in 2007, Oden is indeed a rookie. But he has had what only can be considered a disappointing year, mostly due to injuries. The former Ohio State big man has missed 21 games with various injuries, which no doubt is causing Blazer fans to think he might be the second-coming of Sam Bowie and that the team should have taken Kevin Durant instead. Maybe he will still evolve into a mini-Bill Russell, but he has to stay on the floor. At least he will be one of the three rookies on this list to reach the postseason, but he hasn't played more than 30 minutes in a game since January.

--Gasol, Grizzlies: If Gasol wasn't in Memphis and wasn't from Spain, he might have a lot more run as a top rookie candidate and certainly better odds. He might well be the most surprising rookie of this class, as Pau's brother is averaging 11.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. His emergence makes the trade of his brother to the Lakers a little less-lopsided - Marc Gasol was one of the pieces that went back to Memphis, and definitely the best one now.

--Beasley, Heat: The former Kansas State star can put up 20 points as easily as allow 20 to the opposing power forward. And averaging just over five rebounds a game won't cut it at that position. You'd have to say Beasley was a bit disappointing this year, especially on defense, but he probably will be a 20-point-a-night guy in the league within a year or two.

--Lopez, Nets: True centers just don't win the Rookie of the Year Award, with the last being Shaquille O'Neal in 1993 (Emeka Okafor, Tim Duncan and Amare Stoudemire are not full-time centers). And even Lopez says he would vote for Rose. But Lopez probably has been the best value pick from the 2008 draft, as he was No. 10 overall and is averaging 13 points (shooting better than 53 percent) and 7.9 rebounds a game. Lopez will get some votes for Rookie of the Year. He won't win it but might finish second and will be one of the best centers in the East for some time.

--Westbrook, Thunder: A lot of people thought the then-Sonics reached when they took the UCLA guard No. 4 overall. But he has proven to be a future star and a nice piece along with Jeff Green and 2007 Rookie of the Year Kevin Durant on an up-and-coming team.

--Mayo, Grizzlies: He will end up as the top rookie scorer in this class, and he moved to the top of the rookie rankings on sites such as ESPN in February after averaging 19.7 ppg that month, but he has fallen back. Mayo is a points machine but must improve his shooting percentage and stop turning the ball over. But with Mayo and Gasol, Memphis has the best overall rookie class of 2008-09.

--Rose, Bulls: Folks, the award is a lock to be his unless somehow the Bulls stage a colossal collapse in the final week and miss the playoffs. The Chicago native is the only rookie playing truly meaningful minutes on a playoff team, and he leads all rookies in assists and is second to Mayo in scoring. Rose also has taken over as the leader of his team and is shooting pretty well from the field (47 percent). He still doesn't have three-point range, and coach Vinny Del Negro has taken him out for defensive purposes in a few games, but Rose will become the first Eastern Conference player to win Rookie of the Year since Okafor in 2004-05 and first Bull since Elton Brand in 1999-2000.

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Afternoon delight: MLB opening day early game previews

Make sure you know the details on the horses you back today. The weather has already delayed one home opener and it could be a factor in a few others. Here's a little cheat sheet that will hopefully help with today's wagers.

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (+150, 7.5): Johan Santana vs. Aaron Harang
The Mets start the season with a six-game road trip before playing San Diego on April 15 in their first game at the new ballpark. They'll look to ace pitcher Johan Santana (16-7, 2.53 ERA) to help them open the year with a victory.

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-145, 8.5): Jamie Shields vs. Josh Beckett
The Rays and the Red Sox are scheduled to open the 2009 season at Fenway on Monday afternoon, though rain is in the forecast and could push Game 1 back to an off-day Tuesday.

Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers (+115, 10): Cliff Lee vs. Kevin Millwood
The Indians and their ace pitcher hope to erase memories of a miserable spring training, when Cliff Lee was 0-3 with a 12.46 ERA in six starts and the ball club won only 12 of 35 games.

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-165, 7.5): Aaron Cook vs. Brandon Webb
Arizona manager Bob Melvin's opening day lineup will be a bit different than his normal everyday look. He will start Eric Byrnes in right field in place of Justin Upton and shift Chad Tracy from first base to third, with Tony Clark getting the start at first. Upton and regular third baseman Mark Reynolds will sit, but only for one day, Melvin said.

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (+175, 8.5): CC Sabathia vs. Jeremy Guthrie
Armed with baseball's steepest payroll, the Yankees realize the importance of beginning the season on a roll. New York went 14-15 last April and never really recovered in its first season under manager Joe Girardi.

Washington Nationals at Florida Marlins (-160, 8): John Lannan vs. Ricky Nolasco
The Nationals could have a hard time getting off on the right foot with Ricky Nolasco taking the mound for the Marlins on Monday. The right-hander went 5-2 with a 2.80 ERA over his last 12 starts in 2008 to finish 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA.

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-185, 8): Paul Malhomn vs. Adam Wainwright Although Wainwright was the Cardinals' opening day starter last season, the game was rained out. There is snow in the forecast for St. Louis on Monday. Wainwright went 11-3 with a 3.20 ERA in 20 starts in 2008, and was 5-0 with a 3.35 ERA in his final seven starts after missing 2 1/2 months with a sprained right middle finger.

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Baseball Betting System: Pythagorean Expectations

Baseball Betting System: Pythagorean Expectations

Pythagoras is a famous Greek philosopher (can someone name me a non-mythical famous Greek who wasn't some kind of philosopher?) and mathematician. He is most famous for his triangle theory but he turned out to be a pretty bitchin' dude and he believed that numbers were the foundation of life and the ultimate reality. He believed that through math "everything could be predicted and measured in rhythmic patterns or cycles." In other words, he was kind of a latter day Bill James.

So I suppose its not a surprise to learn that Bill James, a baseball writer, historian and statistician who basically invented the field of sabermetrics in baseball, concocted a formula for measuring the expected number of wins for any given Major League Baseball team. This metric attempts to quantify how "lucky" a particular team is by comparing the number of games a team "should" have won (based on the formula) to the amount of games that team actually won. James dubbed his formula the Pythagorean Expectation because of its similarity to Pythagoras' theorem.

Here is the actual formula:

Basically, James simplifies the game into its most basic components - runs scored and runs allowed - and used that more to explain how well or how poorly teams performed. At first the correlation between James' formula and the actual winning percentage of teams was a mere experiment. But other statisticians and probability theorists (whom I presume are also fans of America's Former Pastime) were able to determine that the formula can give a probability for future wins.

I know, I know: reading about this stuff is enough to make your eyes roll back into your head. But this year I factored in the Pythagorean Expectations into my MLB futures bets and I'm very interested to see the results for this baseball betting system. If they are anything close to what I've observed from the last several years then I think we may have found a significant moneymaker for years to come.

The summation of this formula can actually be found right on the MLB.com website. In the league standings you have the option of viewing the "X-Wins", which is the measure of a team's Pythagorean Expectations, or their "expected wins."

Using that number I went back to track the teams with the biggest discrepancies from year to year, dating back to 2001. If a team had an actual win total of 89 and an X-Wins total of just 84 then it's safe to say that our team overachieved by five wins (+5). The reverse is also true. If a team finished the year with 72 wins but had an X-Wins total of 79 then that club underachieved by seven wins (-7).

Arbitrarily, I determined that 4.0 would be the threshold for significance for determining if a team over- or underachieved. And since 2001 a total of 76 teams, out of a possible 240, either over- or underachieved according to our threshold. So what I did was to group the teams that overachieved and the ones that underachieved and to compare each individual club's results the following year. However, while 4.0 was the initial threshold I found that if you bumped that up 5.0 you actual returned more significant wagering results.

Teams that were +5 or higher according to the Pythagorean Expectations - that means that the difference between their Actual Wins and their X-Wins were 5.0 or higher - actually had fewer wins the following season in 22 of the 32 instances. And it makes sense because if a team overachieves one season then it's most likely going to experience a natural statistical regression and come up short the following season.

Our underachievers - teams with a -5 or below Expectation - also went the opposite way and they ended up winning more total games in 23 of the 35 occurrences over the last eight years.

Now, using the formula and my generic threshold significance of +/-4 I may have found a consistent moneymaker when considering futures bets. I started by comparing the 2005 results to the 2006 season wins totals released by Las Vegas Sports Consultants. I wanted to see how the teams that overachieved and underachieved in 2005 did against the 2006 Vegas wins totals, and I then repeated the exercise for each of the following years. The results were eye opening.

Teams that we have deemed "overachievers", that is teams with a differential of +4 or higher went just 6-9-1 (40 percent) against the Vegas wins totals the following year. If we bump our threshold up to +5 we actually lost a few percentage points as those teams were just 5-7-1 (41.6 percent) against the Vegas wins. And placing a futures bet against these overachievers the year after turned a profit all three years.

The results were even better when you bet on teams to bounce back after an "underachieving" year of -4 or less. Those teams went an outstanding 11-7 (61.1 percent) in the last three years against the Vegas wins totals. They would have had an overall losing season in 2007, going just 3-4, but a 5-2 year in 2006 and a 3-1 year in 2008 would have made this system an overall winner.

And the results for the underachievers get even better if you raise the threshold to -5 or less. Those teams went a sensational 9-2 against the Vegas wins totals over the last three years and produced a profit each individual season.

Overall, betting against ('under') the season wins totals of our overachieving teams (+4 or higher) and betting on ('over') the season wins totals of our underachieving teams (-4 or worse) would have gone 20-13-1 against Vegas season wins totals over the last three years. And if we narrow our underachievers to -5 or worse that raises our record to 18-8-1 and gives us a sensational 69.2 winning percentage!

This year we have only two qualifiers that were overachievers last year. Tampa Bay's Actual Wins total was 97 last year their Pythagorean Expectations (or X-Wins) was just 91. That gives them a +6 and means that we should bet the 'under' against their season wins total this year, which is currently 89.0. Houston (+9) also fits that category and their 2009 season wins total is currently at 74.5.

Those two teams - Tampa Bay and Houston - represent the smallest number of "overachievers" to bet on in the last four years.

Our pool of underachievers is a bit broader. Toronto (-7), Atlanta (-7), Baltimore (-5) and San Diego (-5) should all be teams that we play 'over' against their season wins totals. Also, Cleveland (-4) and Detroit (-4) fit in the original threshold and are worth a look even though they don't pass the -5 filter.

You really don't need to fully understand the math behind this. You don't need to understand Pythagorean philosophy, Bill James' sabermetrics, or anything else. All you have to understand for this baseball betting system is this: had you bet $1,000 on each of these season win totals you would have been up a cool $9,200 and all it would take is the MLB.com site, a calculator, and about 15 minutes of work.

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Sweet Sixteen Predictions

Sweet Sixteen Predictions

With the Sweet 16 just a couple of days away, here's my attempt to offer some Sweet 16 predictions on which teams are the best bets:

Thursday

Connecticut (-7) vs. Purdue - Strong defense tends to thrive in the tournament, and both of these teams have top-rate defenses - in the Top 5 by defensive efficiency. The difference here is going to be the pace of play. UConn plays a far more up-tempo style that capitalizes on their size advantage over virtually everyone they play. Purdue will need to slow things down and set the tone if they want to have a chance. As much as I like the Big Ten, I don't think the Boilermakers can pull it off. It's a near-certainty that the Huskies will have a significant rebounding edge. Purdue has struggled against fast, hot guards this year, and UConn's backcourt is on fire right now. I expect this one to be tough and fun, but I think in the end Purdue just won't have enough to measure up.

Pitt (-7) vs. Xavier - The Musketeers beat Wisconsin in the second round largely by lulling the Badgers to sleep in the second half. Xavier is very solid defensively, and they set the tempo as well as any team in the country. They can also score pretty well, though not as well as the Panthers. Pitt is bigger and stronger, and they use that size to assert themselves offensively with ruthless efficiency. That means that this game will be a battle of wills. I probably favor the Panthers, but Xavier is playing very well, they have the experience of being in this round just last year, and they have nothing to lose. My hunch is that this line gives the Panthers too much credit.

Memphis (-4.5) vs. Missouri - Perhaps more than any other game, this one comes down to one player - Memphis freshman point guard Tyreke Evans. Memphis has a lethal combination - a relentless, ball moving offense, and the most efficient defense in the country. They haven't lost since Evans moved to the point, but he has only been okay so far during the tournament. If he returns to his impressive late-season form then the Tigers should be able to roll here much like they did against Maryland. Even if he doesn't, Missouri has perhaps the smallest margin of error of any remaining team - they need to play as close to flawless as they can or they will be vulnerable against a better team. I expect the Tigers to roar.

Duke (-2.5) vs. Villanova - Maybe I am drawn to Villanova just because I dislike Duke so very much. Or maybe I just like the matchup for the Wildcats. Duke is as much of a one-dimensional perimeter team as there is. If teams can contain and control that then the Blue Devils are likely in trouble. Villanova can probably do that. Their guards use speed and pressure to disrupt opponents and take away shots. That speed will also let them exploit Duke on the break like Texas did in the last round. Duke also doesn't have an answer for Villanova's big man, Dante Cunningham. Villanova has the advantages and the momentum, and I give them a solid edge.

Friday

Louisville (-9) vs. Arizona - I'll keep this one brief - Louisville was my pick to win it all before the tournament, and they still are. That being said, I'm not convinced that this line makes sense. The Wildcats have a trio of talented players, an explosive offense, a defense that is playing well of late, and momentum. Louisville is the better team and should win, but it could very easily be by less than nine points.

Oklahoma (-1) vs. Syracuse - Oklahoma beat Michigan by 10 points, but the game was closer than the score. Michigan was penalized by the refs far more than the Sooners, had absolutely no answer for Blake Griffin, and went long stretches displaying ridiculous offensive futility, and still were in it until late in the second half. Syracuse has more size, more speed, better shooting, and much more momentum than Michigan. I see them getting through this one and keeping their hot streak alive.

Michigan State (-1.5) vs. Kansas - I have a hard time respecting Kansas right now. They deserve credit for getting where they are considering what they lost. Still, it's hard to argue that they aren't overachieving. They benefited from a relatively weak conference to get their seeding, and don't have the experience or seasoning to go further in my eyes. That's not the same for Michigan State. They are deep, tough, seasoned, and focused on playing in the Final Four at home. The Kansas repeat bid ends here.

North Carolina (-8.5) vs. Gonzaga - Every time I look at this one I change my mind. Since before the tournament started I have had a feeling that UNC is vulnerable and poised to fall. That hasn't changed. Sometimes I think that Gonzaga is the team to end the Tar Heels' run. When they play their best they certainly could. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs also have the ability to disappoint and underwhelm when the pressure is on. To pick Gonzaga to win, or even to cover, you have to take a leap of faith that they can perform at their best. Given the number of points they are given, I'm willing to bet that they will. UNC is vulnerable in two key ways - they don't play great defense when pressed to do so, and they get frustrated when teams are able to get back defensively and limit the effectiveness of the North Carolina fast break. Gonzaga is offensively potent and defensively sound, and they have the potential to manage both feats.

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NCAA Tournament Betting: Updated Odds to Win Regionals

NCAA Tournament Betting: Updated Odds to Win Regionals

Did you know that there are pockets in the city of Detroit in which the average home price is just $22,000? No, I'm not missing a digit there: according to CNN the average price of a house in the Motor City is slightly less than a 2009 PT Cruiser.

So, if you had dropped $500 on a futures bet on the Arizona Wildcats to win the Midwest Region - the opening odds on the 'Cats were 60-to-1 - do you think you would cruise on into the Cass Corridor and pick up a four-bedroom, two-bath crib with your winnings?
The Future is now for the 16 sweet college hoops teams that are still playing in the NCAA men's basketball tournament. Before the Big Dance tipped off last Thursday there were futures wagers available for each of the four regional sites. These short-term futures are one of the best values in futures betting, in any sport, and before this weekend's action shapes the Final Four teams you can still get a little cheddar down on who you think will survive weekend No. 2.
However, with the current odds you probably can only secure a down payment on a Detroit home (or a PT Cruiser) as opposed to full cash payment. Here are is a breakdown of the four regions of the NCAA Tournament along with updated regional futures odds:

MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS) REGIONAL

All season long Louisville has shown a disturbing penchant for mailing it in during the first half of games. They were up just two points over feeble Morehead State in Round 1 and just seven points over Siena in Round 2. But those lackluster halves haven't been enough to deter oddsmakers from lowing the payout on the Cardinals to win the Midwest Region. They opened the tournament at 6-to-5 favorites but now are paying significantly less at 1-to-2.
The No. 2 seed, Michigan State, and the No. 3 seed, Kansas, are actually equals in the odds of the futures oddsmakers. Both are currently listed at 2.5-to-1 and that could be telling in terms of which team the books are expecting to advance from their upcoming Friday tussle. Michigan State romped in the first meeting, but that was back in December in the Izzone.
Arizona experienced the second-highest spike in their odds over the weekend. They began the season as 60-to-1 underdogs to come out of the Midwest but are currently just an 8-to-1 bet to win a pair this weekend. They looked sharp and focused in the opening two rounds and will have just four days to prep for Louisville's pressure.

EAST (BOSTON) REGIONAL

Pittsburgh really struggled through its weekend, going 0-2 against the spread and barely holding off plucky No. 16 seed East Tennessee State in their opening game. It wasn't exactly a confidence builder for all of those folks holding futures for Pitt to cut down the nets in Detroit. In fact, their odds have held firm at 3-to-5 to win the East Regional. I said at the start of the tournament that I didn't think the Panthers were a championship team and I'm holding true to that sentiment. But whether they can get out of Boston is another story.
Duke's odds improved only slightly, moving from 2-to-1 to 17-to-10. Naturally, the Blue Devils are still overrated. They always are. But in this instance I think the odds of them beating Big East teams in back-to-back games are, um, a lot longer than 17-to-10. Villanova is still the East Regional sleeper at 3-to-1 and, in my opinion, offers a great value. Xavier was the weekend's biggest mover, dropping from 75-to-1 odds to come out of the East to a tidy 7-to-1 wager.

SOUTH (MEMPHIS) REGIONAL

In my opinion this is the most interesting regional in terms of reading the futures odds. First, North Carolina looked great over the weekend and Ty Lawson returned to bolster their title chances. However, their odds, 2-to-5, to win the region actually held firm. I would have expected Lawson's return to vault this team into the "unplayable favorite" range, but that doesn't appear to be the case.
Next, Oklahoma began the tournament as the only No. 2 seed with odds to win their regional at higher than 2.5-to-1. They were a very soft 6-to-1 to come out of Memphis, but now have seen that number shrink to 3.5-to-1. But that shift in the numbers tells me that the oddsmakers still aren't overly impressed with the Sooners and how they performed over the weekend.
Syracuse had perhaps the best weekend of any team in the field, dominating both of their opponents from start to finish. Interestingly enough, they find themselves in a similar situation to the Midwest Regional in that the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds have the same odds (3.5-to-1) to come out of their bracket. Yet SU and OU's odds are lower than the Michigan State-Kansas numbers.
Finally, Gonzaga got the obligatory bump from not getting bounced in the first round. This perpetually overrated club went from an 8-to-1 sucker bet to a 5-to-1 sucker bet.

WEST (GLENDALE) REGIONAL

Things were not really wild at all out west last weekend and as a result the odds in Glendale have more quivered than actually shifted. Purdue did drop from 12-to-1 to 5-to-1, which is significant, but not earth shattering. Beyond that, Connecticut barely shifted from 5.5-to-5 to 5-to-6 and Memphis tilted from 7-to-5 to 6.5-to-5. The fourth team, Missouri, might be the best value on the board at 5-to-1.
I would not be stunned to see Connecticut, Missouri or Purdue in the Motor City so that makes a futures wager in this region a high-risk, low-reward option.

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Understanding Sports Odds

Understanding Sports Odds

Here's the most simplistic but true statement I can possibly make about sports betting - understanding sports odds is a pretty important part of sports betting. You can be the best handicapper in the world, and you can pick winners with shocking regularity, but if you don't understand odds then you can't know if a bet is worth making, and you probably won't be a winner in the end. Fortunately, understanding sports odds isn't that tough once you figure it all out.

Before we look at the details of things there is one thing to keep in mind - your job as a sports bettor is to determine what you think the likelihood of something happening is and then to compare it to the odds of that event occurring. If the posted odds are better than your anticipated likelihood then you have a bet worth making, but if the odds, or the potential return on the bet, is less than the chances you give the bet of being successful then it is not worthwhile. Novice or unsuccessful bettors think that sports betting is all about picking winners, but that is only a small part of success.

There are a number of different ways that odds can be presented, but they all come down to the same thing. Sports books assign what they think is a fair price for a particular outcome. By fair price I mean that the books try to set a price that is attractive to bettors so that they will bet on it, but not so attractive that they will get too many bets and risk losing money. Books will adjust the odds once they have been set if they are attracting too much or too little action.
Sports odds can be presented in a number of different ways, but they all represent the same thing in one way or another - the amount you will win if you make a bet and are correct. They express them in different ways, but that's the meaning.

Fractional odds - These aren't the most common in sports betting, but they are the easiest to understand so we will start here. They are used in horse racing, so if you are familiar with betting on the ponies then you know fractional odds. Not surprisingly, they are expressed as a fraction. For example, odds of 4/1 mean that you would win four dollars if you bet one dollar and were correct. The odds can be less than even, too. Odds of 1/4 would mean that you would have to bet four dollars to win one dollar. With fractional odds it is also quite simple to figure out if a bet makes sense. If the odds are 4/1 and you think that something is likely to happen once in three tries then it is a very profitable bet. On the other hand, if it were likely to happen once every five tries then you would lose money in the long term if you bet it at 4/1.

Decimal odds - These aren't used in the United States very often, but they are seen in Canada, Europe and Australia. They can also be the most confusing at first. The easiest way to understand them is to start with fractional odds. To make a conversion you take the fraction, turn it into a decimal, and add one. That means that 4/1 fractional odds would convert to decimal odds of five, and 1/4 odds would become 1.25.

Money line odds - These are by far the most common form of odds in North America for sports betting. They are expressed as numbers greater than 100, and they can be either a positive or negative number. Each one is a little bit different.
When a money line is a positive number then the odds are the amount you would win if you were to bet $100 and were correct. For example, a money line of +200 would mean that you would make a profit of $200 if you bet $100 and were correct. That's also equivalent to fractional odds of 2/1 and decimal odds of 3.

A negative money line represents the amount that you would have to bet to win $100 if you were correct. For example, a -200 money line means you would win $100 if you bet $200 and won. It is also equivalent to fractional odds of 1/2 and decimal odds of 1.5.

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Food City 500 Odds and Predictions

Food City 500 Odds and Predictions

After one week off after his win at Atlanta Kurt Busch (and the "Blue Deuce") looks to continue his Sprint Cup domination as NASCAR heads to Thunder Valley, Busch's favorite track, this Sunday for the first of two races at Bristol Motor Speedway at 2 p.m. EST.

Bristol is racing's equivalent of the 12th man as the track itself is as much a story as the cars racing on it. BMS features two pit roads, which makes every pit stop an adventure for fans, drivers and pit crews. Qualifying is everything at Bristol so keep that in mind when investing on Sunday's race. This should give you a great indication who will likely race well and who will not.

BMS boasts 15-second laps and 30-degree banked turns. When the 0.5333-mile track was resurfaced in summer of 2007 they also added three extra feet so there are two grooves rather than one. However, now fans can experience more side-to-side racing rather than the colossal multi-car wipeouts that everyone loves at Bristol. At last year's Food City 500 42 of 43 cars finished on the lead lap.

How drivers fare at the Food City 500 is very important because the Top-35 teams in owners' points after the first five races of the season are guaranteed starting spots in the rest of the races for the season. If a driver is out of the Top 35 they'll need to get into each race on speed -- a shaky position for Mark Martin, who is currently on the bubble at No. 35. I look for drivers like Ryan Newman (32nd), Joey Logano (33rd) Scott Speed (37th) and Martin to really push is this Sunday to make sure they are in the Top 35 by the end of Sunday's race.

Who will win the Food City 500?

This is the first short-track race of the season and Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch go into this race with a decided advantage. Not only are they first and third, respectively, in the Sprint Cup points standings, they are also both tied with five wins each at BMS.

Kurt Busch won five spring races at Bristol in '02, '03, '04 and two August races in '03 and '04. Gordon has won spring races at Bristol in '95, '96, '97 and '98 while winning one August race in '02. But since the resurfacing neither of these two drivers has won.

"Concrete" Carl Edwards has dominated Bristol ever since the half-mile track was resurfaced. This Sunday Edwards will drive the car he used, and won, at Bristol last August. In his car "RK-596" Edwards started from the pole and ended up winning the race after leading for 84 laps.

If there is a downside for Edwards is that he is better racing at night than during the day at Bristol. Despite winning two of the last three races at Bristol he has never won the day race in spring. Last year Edwards finished 16th in this race, however, and I think this Sunday we will see the first back flip of the season.

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (6/1)

2009 Food City 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

How dominant has Kurt Busch been this season? Busch won his first race of the season at Atlanta two weeks ago and looks to continue the trend in "PRS-594" which he named "Hot Rod" after the win at AMS. "Hot Rod" debuted with a fifth-place finish at California and after winning two weeks ago the car's average finish is second. The No. 2 car has finished in the Top 10 five out of six races run this year. In his last three races Busch has started no worse than fourth on the grid and has put Penske Championship Racing back on the map. Busch is in third place in the standings, 46-points behind leader Jeff Gordon, but is in great position to use Bristol to take over the points lead with another strong short track finish. While Busch might not win this week it is a good bet that he finishes in the Top 3.

Pick! Kurt Busch, No. 2, (2/1)

2009 Food City 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

I actually don't like any of the long odds drivers on Sunday. I am looking to back a driver that will race competitively and perhaps take the lead for a few laps. I don't want my long-odds driver to flame out in the first 50 laps. I'm looking for some longevity as well as return for my investment. BMS is where Elliot Sadler won his first Sprint Cup race in 2001. If there was ever a track built to suit the No. 19 Best Buy Dodge it's Bristol. Although Sadler's finishes have not been great since the resurface (27th in '07 and 19th in '08), he started third on the grid in 2007 and finished second in 2005. Earlier this year at Daytona Sadler led for 24 laps, which eclipsed his 21-lap lead for the entire 2008 season. If Sadler can qualify well at Bristol don't count him out.

Pick! Elliot Sadler, No. 19, (30/1)

Odds to finish in the Top 3 - Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway March 22, 2009

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brian Vickers 9/1
Carl Edwards 9/5
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 5/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9/2
David Ragan 9/1
David Reutimann 30/1
David Stremme 22/1
Denny Hamlin 3/1
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 9/2
Jamie McMurray 9/1
Jeff Burton 5/1
Jeff Gordon 3/2
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Joey Logano 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 30/1
Kasey Kahne 5/1
Kevin Harvick 7/2
Kurt Busch 2/1
Kyle Busch 3/2
Mark Martin 15/2
Martin Truex Jr. 30/1
Matt Kenseth 7/2
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Ryan Newman 18/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed30/1
Tony Stewart 5/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1

Odds to win the Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway March 22, 2009

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 30/1
Carl Edwards 6/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann100/1
David Stremme 75/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 15/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Jeff Burton 18/1
Jeff Gordon 6/1
Jimmie Johnson 15/1
Joey Logano 75/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 60/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Kevin Harvick 10/1
Kurt Busch 7/1
Kyle Busch 11/2
Mark Martin 25/1
Martin Truex Jr. 100/1
Matt Kenseth 14/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Tony Stewart 18/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1

SpreadConsultants

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Sports betting tips

Sports betting tip #1 - Money Management

This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting sports and possibly the most neglected. The first key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose. If you are going to bet on sports, it is important to set aside a certain portion of your money for betting and to stick with that bankroll, win or lose. Winning money on sports is not a sprint. If you bet your whole bankroll on one game and lose, you will be more likely to try and chase your losses. If you spread your bankroll among several smaller bets, you are more likely to make a profit in the long run if you do the proper homework. Remember, there are no locks in this business and any team can lose on any given night. And on the subject of chasing: Don't do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day. If you didn't like the game before you lost your money, why would you like it after your losses? Chasing bets is a losing proposition almost every time. If you are on a winning streak, increase the amount of your bets. Wins and losses often come in streaks, and it can be profitable to ride out a hot streak.

Sports betting tip #2 - Shopping for Numbers
The second most important aspect of betting on sports is shopping for the best number. There will be more discrepancy in the numbers on different sports at different sports books. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. On college sports and daily events like the NBA, you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines. When you are betting your hard earned money, getting the best line is a top priority. And since the lines the bookmakers release are increasingly strong, the difference between a point or two is usually the difference between a win or a loss.

Sports betting tip #3 - Never Gamble While under the Influence
There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling. Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn't otherwise make. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind. If you have had too much to drink, it is in your best interest to stay away from the betting window.

There are many other important factors when it comes to beating the books. Many people don't have the time to study things like: statistics, line moves, game analysis, team trends, situational trends, Historical angles, valuable lines, inflated numbers on public teams, etc. If this is your situation, there is help available to you. There are many fine sports handicapping services available. Like a good stockbroker handicapping services can advise you where to invest your money in order to limit your losses and increase your winning percentage.

As with any industry there are the good and the bad. We must confess that our industry has gotten somewhat of a black eye. The handicapping business has been flooded with 1-900-rip-offs, "boiler room" sales offices and those recorded free pick phones that get your phone number so that one of their high pressure salesman can call back and hound you on a daily basis. These services are often skilled in marketing but know little when in comes to handicapping. This is not in your best interest.

It's very important that whether you use our service, another service, or handicap on your own that you do your homework and always remember that this is a marathon and not a sprint. The same principle that apply to any business, also applies to sports betting and in our 30+ years of experience we can only guarantee the following four statements: There are no 'Locks,' there are no 'get-rich-quick' schemes, any game can lose in almost unimaginable ways, and unfortunately you will have your losing days.

We hope these sports betting tips will help out but most importantly be patient, have some fun and enjoy the experience. Best of Luck - SpreadConsultants

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Potential NCAA Tournament Upsets

Potential NCAA Tournament Upsets

The best part of the early rounds of the NCAA are the upsets, and the best part of filling out your bracket is deciding which games you think are potential heartbreakers for the higher seeded teams. Here are eight potential upsets that wouldn't shock me this year:

Midwest

No. 12 Arizona over No. 5 Utah - The Wildcats are a controversial inclusion in the tournament, but they are better than their record indicates. They have a very talented trio in Wise, Hill and Budinger, and they are explosive offensively. Utah is a solid team, but they have fallen into slumps from time to time. Utah might be slightly too high at No. 5, and Arizona is more talented than a lot of 12 seeds.

No. 10 USC over No. 7 Boston College - The Eagles can be a tough team - they beat UNC, Duke and Florida State this year. Unfortunately, they are wildly inconsistent - they lost to Harvard, and they dropped five of their last nine. USC knows all about underachieving, too, but they got hot at the right time and won their conference tournament to get an unlikely tournament bid. If they revert to their regular season form then they will lose here. If they keep playing like they did in their tourney, though, then this might not be the only game they win.

West

No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 Marquette - The Golden Eagles had a great start to the season, but they had the bad misfortune of losing the very valuable Dominic James. Without him the team has struggled badly down the stretch and are certainly vulnerable. The Aggies are a hard team to judge - they won 30 games and the WAC title, but they really haven't played many teams of note. If they are half as good as their record then they could pull the upset.

No. 10 Maryland over No. 7 Cal - I frankly don't even think that this one would be much of an upset. The Pac-10 didn't have a great year, so Cal isn't particularly battle-tested, and they lost four of their last six. Maryland had struggles of their own at times, but they also beat some very good teams - Michigan State, UNC and so on. They have a good chance of thriving under the pressure here.

East

No. 12 Wisconsin over No. 5 Florida State - This seed matchup always seems to be the site of the big upsets, and this could be yet another. The Badgers didn't get nearly enough respect from the selection committee - they were fifth in the Big Ten, yet they were seeded two spots below two teams behind them in the standings. Wisconsin didn't live up to expectations, but they still play smothering defense and can be dangerous. Florida State is coming off a huge conference tournament run, but they may struggle with focus and maintaining their momentum.

No. 13 Portland State over No. 4 Xavier - The Vikings are the Big Sky champions, and they could be dangerous. They haven't played a lot of top competition, but they do have an impressive win at Gonzaga to their credit. Xavier is a team I like a lot, but they can be frustrating. They have a bad habit of overlooking teams that they should be able to beat with ease - three of their six losses came against decidedly inferior opponents. They rely heavily on a freshman point guard, and he might have slight problems with the intensity of this tournament. That could be enough for Portland State.

South

No. 11 Temple over No. 6 Arizona State - The Sun Devils have one of the most impressive players out there in James Harden. He deserves more credit and attention than he gets, and a big tournament performance could help him get that. They will have to be at their best to get past Temple, though. The Owls won a deep and tough A-10 conference tournament, and they had a couple of solid non-conference wins. They are a feisty team that won't be afraid to stand up to the Sun Devils.

No. 10 Michigan over No. 7 Clemson - Michigan is a frustrating team to be a fan of. When they play their game they are as good as any squad out there - ask Duke or UCLA. If they don't play with focus and determination, though, then they can be incredibly lousy. They have been able to lift their game up when it matters, though, and they could do it again here. Their 1-3-1 defense can also give opponents fits if it is working well. Clemson had a great non-conference run, but they didn't play too many teams of note. In conference play they had a win over Duke but they lost to the rest of their top opponents. They are not a bad team, but they are a vulnerable one.

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NCAA Tournament Fact vs. Myth

NCAA Tournament Fact vs. Myth

The March Madness is in full swing. The following will examine a couple of key questions many of you have about the upcoming tournament and we are confident this discussion will also help you fill out your bracket and be the king of your office pool.

Fact vs. Myth

Fact vs. Myth No. 1: Oklahoma has the best player in Blake Griffin and thus they are a threat to win it all?

Answer: Myth. Despite having the best player in Blake Griffin, the Sooners have a hurdle that they will not be able to overcome, Jeff Capel cannot coach. Everything Blake Griffin gets is on his own and not because of some great offensive attack devised by Capel. In fact, the Coach K "family tree" has not been successful as evidenced below:

Tommy Amaker (Seton Hall, Michigan, Harvard)
Bob Bender (Washington)
Mike Brey (Notre Dame)
Neil Dougherty (Texas Christian)
Quin Snyder (Missouri, NBDL Austin Toros)
Jeff Capel III (Virginia Commonwealth, Oklahoma)
David Henderson (Delaware)
Johnny Dawkins (Stanford University) />

This certainly does not line-up with the Coach Rick Pitino tree. The Sooners have a nice draw but I don't expect them to make it to the Elite Eight, despite being a No. 2 seed.

Fact vs. Myth No. 2: The Big Ten set basketball back 20 years this season and all of the teams will be knocked out this weekend?

Answer: Myth. Granted the Big Ten was hard to watch in 2009 and the first team to reach 50 points won the majority of games, but familiarity played a major role in this. Every coach in the conference has a veteran this season and opposing teams are very familiar with each coach's style of play. The same cannot be said for teams outside the Midwest and expect the scoring of Big Ten teams to increase and this may set up some great totals plays on the over. I expect Purdue and Michigan State to make it to the second weekend and four of the seven Big Ten teams will win their first round games. The officiating and unfamiliarity will help all of these squads. Watch out for Purdue, as this team has the best talent and is starting to get healthy.

Fact vs. Myth No. 3: Location is important when filling out your bracket?

Answer: Fact. You have noticed that there have not been as many upsets in recent years and the chalk has prevailed through the first weekend. Last year, the Top 8 seeds made it through the first weekend and it would not surprise me if that trend happened again this year. I do not see many strong teams in the 7-10 games that would have a chance to knockout a No. 2 seed in round two. Teams benefiting from location this season are Villanova, Louisville, North Carolina, and Duke. Expect all of these teams to advance to the second week of the tournament.

Fact vs. Myth No. 5: Teams need stars in order to advance deep into the tournament.

Answer: Fact. The tournament is a different breed and oftentimes games get into half-court battles and, in order to score points, you need players that can create their own shots. Does Stephen Curry ring a bell from 2008? Teams that come to mind this season are North Carolina, Florida State, Arizona State and Pittsburgh. Teams that don't have a star are Wisconsin, Illinois, West Virginia, and Texas A&M.

Fact vs. Myth No. 6: The tournament should be expanded to eliminate the bubble teams.

Answer: Myth. Regardless of how many teams you put in, there will always be some team that feels they got jobbed. Do we really need all 16 teams from the Big East in the NCAA Tournament? Does DePaul deserve to be in after going 0-16 in the Big East? The tournament is fine the way it is now and I like the fact that each conference gets at least one team into the field. Nobody left out this season (Penn State, Auburn, or St. Mary's) could win six straight games in the tournament. The only thing I would eliminate is the play-in game, (yes that is what it is called) because the loser does not get to experience the real tournament atmosphere. Coaches are in favor of expansion because it may help save their jobs and, much like the bowls, mediocrity can seem a lot better with a victory late in the season.

There you have it, so who do I think will advance to the Motor City: Michigan State, UCONN, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh. Who will cut down the nets: UNC.

2009 NBA MVP Odds and Predictions

2009 NBA MVP Odds and Predictions

Right now there are two hot topics in the NBA: how is the playoff field going to shape up and what are some 2009 NBA MVP odds and who is going to bring home the Podoloff Cup.

(What is The Podoloff Cup, you ask? According to Useful Trivia, "The National Basketball Association established the Podoloff Cup, named for Maurice Podoloff, the league's first commissioner, as the its Most Valuable Player award in 1956. The winner was originally chosen by the NBA players. Since 1981, however, it has been based on a poll of professional basketball broadcasters and writers." Who knew?)

Right now it's tough to find any online sportsbooks that have 2009 NBA MVP odds posted. However, I think if they did post odds for the NBA MVP it would be one of the most highly bet props that they could have on the board. The debate is heated, and definitely calls into question the subjective measure of what an MVP is and what the phrase "Valuable" means.

There isn't really a wrong answer when you're breaking down the 2009 NBA MVP odds. Well, there isn't a wrong answer unless you have money on it. So I propose that all of the media bobbleheads that spend their time bickering about these issues need to put their money where their mouth is and lay some cheddar on which they think will make Podoloff proud.

So, in the spirit of that, here's a breakdown of the five players in the running for the Polodoff Cup as well as some 2009 NBA MVP odds and predictions:

Dwyane Wade:
Stat Line: 30 points, 7.7 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 2.3 steals, 1.4 blocks
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: +800
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: -125

Wade has been absolutely destroying the NBA this season. He, and yes I mean just he, has lead the Heat to a 36-29 record this season. This is amazing considering that the Heat only won 15 games last season. If you have had the pleasure of watching Wade this year you would have had the privilege of watching a man whom people thought was made of glass and on the downside of his career (ALREADY!) manhandle the rest of the league. The way that he controls a game from the opening tip to the final buzzer is unmatched. The Heat finished last season as the worst team in basketball and currently they sit in the fifth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Heat are an extremely tough matchup for almost any team in the league for one sole reason: Dwyane Wade.

Chris Paul
Stat line: 21.8 points, 11 assists, 5.4 rebounds, 2.4 steals
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: +1000
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: +850

With every passing game that Chris Paul plays the Atlanta Hawks feel like they are getting kicked in the balls over and over. Could you imagine having a Big Three of Paul, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith? That would be a fun team to watch. The Hornets are thankful that the Hawks passed and that they have gotten to watch Paul run one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA. If you decided to sit down and watch the NBA All-Star Game you would have witnessed skills that not many other players in the league possess. Paul's court vision and passing ability are in a league of their own. This man is by far the best point guard in the NBA. Over the past two years Paul has led the Hornets to a 78-65 ATS mark, which includes a 50-30 mark last season.

Kobe Bryant
Stat line: 28 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.3 steals
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: +500
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: +600

I think Kobe will finish fourth in the MVP race and at the All Star break he was posted at some online books as even money to win his second straight MVP award. Kobe will suffer from the Michael Jordan syndrome (Being that good every year, so people just look at it as an average season). Bryant's chances to become the MVP suffer due to the fact that the Lakers went to the championship last year and are on a similar path this season. Having an impressive supporting cast doesn't help Kobe either. Man it must suck to be considered one of the best players on the planet every single time he laces up his sneakers. Yeah, I would hate that.

LeBron James
Stat line: 28.6 points, 7.4 rebounds 7.2 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.2 blocks
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: +500
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: -150

Oh King James, King James. The poster child for the NBA is leading his Cavs on a fast track to the NBA Finals and he is earning a bigger paycheck with each passing game. Numerous teams in the NBA are completely re-tooling their rosters in hopes that they can land The King in 2010. In my opinion James is the runner-up for the MVP award this season. The addition of Mo Williams has placed the Cavs on the next level. It's difficult to look at LeBron James' numbers and suggest that he isn't the MVP when he has matched every one of his statistical categories from last year with the exception of scoring (and last year he should have won MVP). But this year there is just someone better. The Cavs have an improved supporting cast and LeBron, similar to Kobe, is just doing his thing. Poor LeBron; two years in a row now he could have won the MVP and might come "just that close." He was listed at -300 at the All Star break and was the runaway favorite to take the hardware.

Kevin Durant
Stat line: 25.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals
2009 NBA MVP Odds To Start Season: Off
Doc's 2009 NBA MVP Odds: +5000

Nope. Sorry. Durant is an outstanding up-and-coming player as he is currently fourth in the race for the NBA scoring title. But come on; are people serious when they mention his name for MVP? The Oklahoma City Thunder are 18-48 on the year. You can't have an MVP from a team that is that bad. Plus, they haven't been that much worse without Durant while he has been out with an injury. Like I said, he is good, just not MVP good. Yet…